StatementAnalysis(财务报表分析,加州大学MBA)

Outlineoftoday’slecture1.Valueofafirmtoinvestorsandcreditors2.Analysisofprofitability:ROA3.Analysisofprofitability:ROCE4.Analysisofprofitability:EPSThevalueofafirmtoequityinvestorsV=D1/(1+r)+D2/(1+r)2+D3/(1+r)3…….profitabilityriskThevalueofafirmtocreditorsV=I1/(1+r)+I2/(1+r)2+I3/(1+r)3+P/(1+r)3Ii:interestrevenuesinperiodiP:returnofprincipalprofitabilityriskFinancialStatementAnalysis1.Understandtherelationbetweentheexpectedreturnandriskofinvestmentalternatives,andtheroleofanalysisinprovidingriskandreturninformation.2.Understandtheusefulnessoftherateofreturnonassets(ROA)asameasureofafirm’soperatingprofitability.3.Understandtheusefulnessoftherateofreturnoncommonshareholders’equity(ROCE)asameasureofprofitability.4.Understandthestrengthsandweaknessesofearningspercommonshareasameasureofprofitability.Whattocompare?1.Theplannedratiofortheperiod2.Thecorrespondingratiofromapriorperiod(time-seriesanalysis)3.Thecorrespondingratioforanotherfirminthesameindustry(cross-sectionanalysis)4.Theaverageratioforotherfirmsinthesameindustry(cross-sectionanalysis)AnalysisofProfitabilitya.Returnonassets(ROA):returntothefirmasawholeb.Returnoncommonequity(ROCE):returntocommonshareholdersonlyc.EarningspercommonshareAnalysisofProfitabilityROA:returntothefirmROCE:returntocommonShareholdersonlyReturnonAssets(ROA)ROApresentsprofitabilityindependentofthesourceoffinancing–Doesnotconsiderleverage–Measureofhowwellthefirmusesitsassetstogenerateincome–AsifthefirmisfinancedbyequityaloneHorriganCorporationYear4SalesRevenue$475Lessexpense:COGS280Selling53Administrative22Depreciation18Interest16Total389Nextincomebeforetax86Incometaxexpense26NextIncome60HorriganCorporation-assumingnodebtsYear4SalesRevenue$475Lessexpense:COGS280Selling53Administrative22Depreciation18Interest16-16Total389-16=373Nextincomebeforetax86+16=102LessIncometaxexpense26+4.8=30.8NextIncome60+16–4.8=71.2HorriganCorporationROAAveragetotalassetsofthiscompanyinyear4(520+650)/2=585,ThenROA=71.2/585=12.2%Whyaddbackinterestincomenetofincometaxsavingsinthenumerator?1)Ifallequity,thefirmwon’tpay$16interestexpense,whichincreasenetincomeby$16;2)at30%taxrate,governmentwillcollectanadditionalamountof$4.8(16*30%)astax,thentheactualincreaseofnetincomeis(16–4.8).DisaggregatingROAROA=ProfitMarginratio*AssetturnoverratioATOmeasuresthefirm’sAbilitytogeneratesalesAtagivenlevelofInvestmentinassetsPMmeasurestheFirm’sabilitytoControlcostandExpensesatagivenLevelofsalesActivity.HowtoincreaseROA?1.Atthecurrentassetbase,increasesales?2.ButincreasedsalesincreasesATOwhiledecreasesPM3.Adilemma!4.Soonehastoincreasesalesandatthesametimeholddowncostsandexpenses,i.e.,holdPMatcertainlevel.HowtoincreaseROA?-2TheevolutionofROAintheU.S.thegraphsinthenextfewslidesarefromPenmanandNissimReviewofAccountingStudies,2001RNOA:ReturnonnetoperatingassetsRegressiontothemean（回归到平均值）ProfitmarginAssetturnoverRevenuegrowthDisaggregatePMPM=(sales–COGS–SGA–depreciation….)/SalesCOGS-to-SalesratioSelling,Generalandadministrative(SGA)expense-to-salesratioEtc.Byobservingthetimeseriesandcross-sectionofeachexpense-to-salesration,onecanidentifyabnormalratiosandinvestigatethereasons,inordertocontrolcostsandexpensestoincreasePMDisaggregateATOATO=Sales/averagetotalassetsAveragetotalassets=(averageaccountreceivables+averageinventory+averagefixedassets+averageotherassets)Accountsreceivableturnover•Measureshowquicklyafirmcollectscash.•IfA.R.turnovertwiceayear,thentheyaverageonehalfofayearincollection.•Lesstimeispreferredtomore.•Ahighturnoverispreferredtoalowone.•Thedaysofoutstandingforaccountreceivables:365days/accountsreceivableturnoverInventoryturnover•Indicateshowfastfirmssellmerchandise.•Ifinventoryturnovertwiceayear,thentheyaverageonehalfofayearininventory.•Holdinginventoryiscostlybecausethefundsinvestedininventorycouldbeusedelsewhere.•Ahighturnoverispreferredtoalowone.•Dayofinventoryinwarehouse:365/InventoryturnoverFixedassetturnover•Measurestherelationbetweeninvestmentinlong-termorfixedassets(suchasproperty,plant,equipment)andsales.•Efficientuseoffixedassetswouldbeassociatedwithhighsales.•Iffixedassetsturnovereveryfouryears,theneachdollarinvestedinfixedassetsisgeneratingaquarterofadollarinsalesperyear.•Ahighturnoverispreferredtoalowone.ReturnonCommonEquity(ROCE)•Thenumeratormeasuresreturnasnetincomereducedbyanypaymentstopreferredshareholdersasthesedividendsarenotavailabletothecommonshareholderandhavenotbeendeductedfromnetincome.•Thedenominatoristheaverageamountcontributedbycommonshareholderswhichincludes–Commonstockatpar,–Additionalpaidincapital,and–Retainedearnings.RelationbetweenROAandROCE•ROCEistheresidualreturnwhichgoestothecommonshareholders.Sinceitmaybelowinpooryearsbuthighingoodyears,ithasarisk,thatis,theresidualreturnisnotknown.•Debtischaracterizedbyadefinitescheduleofpayments,sothereislittlerisktothedebtholders.•Preferredstockislikedebt,thedividendsarespecified.However,debtorsmustbepaidbeforepreferredshareholdersandifthemoneyrunsout,thentheyaren'tpaid.RelationbetweenROAandROCE•ROAcanbedividedinto–Returntocreditorsordebtors–Return