武汉钢铁股份公司财务分析

华中科技大学硕士学位论文武汉钢铁股份公司财务分析姓名：魏明良申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：袁建国20051022AbstractFinancialstatementisnotonlyanimportantfoundationwhichprovidestheuserwithusefulfinancialinformationbutalsoimplyingvitalcontentsaboutmanagement.However,thereisspecialstructure,methodandgoaltoorganizefinancialstatements.Sotheinformationobtainedfromfinancialstatementcannotbeshowndirectlytotheusers.Inordertogetsomeusefulinformationfromthestatements,theusershouldanalyzeiteffectivelyundertheinstructionofaeffectiveanalysisframework.Thepaperconsistsoftwomainparts:Theformerpartfocusesonconstructingaframeworkoffinancialanalysis,whichisthebasisofthelatter.Firstly,theconceptof“financialanalysis”isdefined,andthepurposeoffinancialanalysisisdiscussedaswell.Secondly,thepapershowsthatmostofourfinancialanalysesinChinabarelyarefiguregames.Themainproblemsare:inshortofknowingandanalyzingtoindustryandeconomy;blindlybelieveindataoffinancialstatements,blindlybelieveinratioandindex.AfteranalyzingthedeficiencyofcurrentfinancialanalysispatterninChina,thethesisproposesamoreeffectivefinancialanalysispatternwhichconsistsoffourinterrelatedprocedures:industryenvironmentsandbusinessstrategyanalysis;accountantanalysis;ratioanalysisandcashflowanalysisandprospectiveandevaluationanalysis.ThelatterpartofthethesisisacaseanalysisofWuhanIronandSteelCompanyLimitedWISCO,justaapplicationoftheanalysisframeworkmentionedabove.IndustryenvironmentsandbusinessstrategyanalysisshowsWISCO’sbusinessstrategiesareaccordantwiththeindustryenvironments,andaccountinganalysisindicatesthequalityofaccountinginformationismediate;FinancialRatio&cashflowanalysissuggestsWISCO’sprofitabilityisverygood,thoughitsliquidityisalittleweak;theconclusionofProspectiveandevaluationanalysisisthatthepriceofcommonstockisunderestimateabit.Intheend,somesimplesuggestsareproposedaccordantwiththeconclusions.KeyWord:financialstatement,financialanalysis,analysisframework,financialevaluation2005102811.1(1999)1.219781998199719952002199951.322.12.1.12002——20012.1.21232.1.31EMHEMHBernstein&Wild20042————32.2199919981234DCF2.2.111)2)3)2,,()20042.2.2——123123454(2002)1“”234546752.2.311)21××××2-1Moyeretal,19982)2-2=23——2-42-53)112¨102¨92¨82¨72¨62¨------12-124)162152142132----11/2-17192182--1l15)2001t11t111tt11)(t1tt202ROENIROENINIgNININIgttttttttt××--=------ROEt=ROEt-1=ROEbb1t1tROEROEROENIgt×=××=2-21×1DPS/EPSROEROEtttROENIROEROEBVg××=b1t1ttt(2-22ROE——ROE22(2)1)2-23)()()[1]2-24[2]100×2-25[3]2-26[1]1]100×(2-27100×100%2]100×2-28100%3]100×2-29[2]100×2-301)2)3)4)5)6)2)2-3112.2.4(1)————20001“”————234()5(2)2-322-33PE(PB)20031),,,,,∑=+=ntttkCFV1)1(2-34VnCFttk,,2001--,(1-)--,--,,,2),BBAAIVIV×=2-35VAIAVBIBVB/IB2000DCF2EPSPE(PB)PS33.1199711199983209,0482004614.189.993-11783,80059420075.81%A189,60024.19%111730018,369100075002004561252130454142312020041-5835425130457274573280%“”50%1002540“”3.23.2.1(1)“”600—1000400—500302120%19865221150003619961.01250001020011.535000520032.245000220042.75000120031187/2001544/783/373/370/903/WTO19961(2)2001200420%,,“”,,2005“”3.2.2200420045001521227545%0.9720042004382009373.66%3.6665%575%15674%2/33.2.32004200443.87%1.38()66%()100%2/350%3.2.4“”2005“”200571.5%70%210200520%6020052703.33.3.1(1)20046200323.9%20031200377254200359136198500(2)1000500100050011002006140020039753.3.24080%200333“”54%83%34%(1)200319315845%623882006108(2)200333.58%700mm~2130mm800Mpa20052152000MM2050MM37820051800(3),,,,,303.3.330%60%12100-200200434——BHP2535060%44.1(1)(2)1234-116%1210%2330%3450%4580%5100%(3)124)1997630(4%)4220402.4%4.8%6155.33%24%8185.33%16%5)6)37)8)33%4.22004111221231583%24-3/2001200220032004/37.8%30.0%30.9%39.3%/17.1%14.9%12.7%45.5%31423200420042,414,8163,446,26255.12002200420041005.1.1200424,148,160,5073,203,583,0643,205,115,7315-11220022003200420042004()%12.1910.6327.7724.5619.80()%12.1210.3727.7624.6719.98%8.737.7716.8515.0610.15%8.828.3613.2716.027.360.990.931.270.941.391.351.311.751.532.04200438.94%12.54%200212.12%200427.76%15.64129.04%15.645.955.024.675.1.2(1)525-22002200414.63%20045-220022003200420042004100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%84.63%84.74%76.81%70.66%85.37%15.37%15.26%23.19%29.34%14.63%0.43%0.43%0.57%0.71%0.43%14.94%14.82%22.62%28.62%14.19%0.00%0.00%0.15%0.17%0.08%0.48%0.24%0.57%0.75%0.80%1.18%1.41%1.85%4.22%2.31%0.10%-0.09%0.55%0.74%0.75%1.75%1.56%2.98%5.71%3.86%13.19%13.26%19.80%23.09%10.12%0.16%0.17%0.04%0.02%0.02%-0.18%-0.68%-0.28%0.06%-0.13%13.17%12.75%19.55%23.17%9.92%4.35%4.39%6.29%7.07%2.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.08%0.04%8.82%8.36%13.27%16.02%7.36%53486.52%92.26%24.73%24.97%1/442.78%5-36,037,831,8464,715,412,13421.90%25.00%23.61%3,143,788,7082,314,434,91226.38%13.02%14.81%9,939,154,1417,456,875,39824.97%41.16%44.33%894,296,827835,973,4886.52%3.70%1.04%1,306,144,1091,114,799,58014.65%5.41%3.42%1,772,749,1991,240,448,80930.03%7.34%9.51%676,058,875606,098,64010.35%2.80%1.25%378,136,801264,151,93730.14%1.57%2.04%24,148,160,50718,548,194,89823.19%100.00%100.00%220043.86%5.71%20042.98%320045-4200420042002200320040.43%0.43%0.57%0.71%0.43%4.35%4.39%6.29%7.07%2.63%4.78%4.82%6.86%7.78%3.06%5.1.31042002200330%(83%