(英文)气候和社会经济变化的区域性多部门综合评价-以英

AREGIONAL,MULTI-SECTORALANDINTEGRATEDASSESSMENTOFTHEIMPACTSOFCLIMATEANDSOCIO-ECONOMICCHANGEINTHEUKPARTI.METHODOLOGYI.P.HOLMAN1,M.D.A.ROUNSEVELL2,S.SHACKLEY3,P.A.HARRISON4,R.J.NICHOLLS5,P.M.BERRY4andE.AUDSLEY61InstituteofWaterandEnvironment,CranfieldUniversity,U.K.E-mail:i.holman@cranfield.ac.uk2Universit´ecatholiquedeLouvain,Belgium3TyndallCentreforClimateChangeResearch,UniversityofManchester,U.K.4EnvironmentalChangeInstitute,UniversityofOxford,U.K.5SchoolofCivilEngineeringandtheEnvironment,UniversityofSouthampton,U.K.6SilsoeResearchInstitute,U.K.Abstract.Policymakersandstakeholdersareincreasinglydemandingimpactassessmentswhichproducepolicy-relevantguidanceonthelocalimpactsofglobalclimatechange.The‘RegionalClimateChangeImpactandResponseStudiesinEastAngliaandNorthWestEngland’(RegIS)studydevelopedamethodologyforstakeholder-led,regionalclimatechangeimpactassessmentthatexplicitlyevaluatedlocalandregional(sub-national)scaleimpactsandadaptationoptions,andcross-sectoralinteractionsbetweenfourmajorsectorsdrivinglandscapechange(agriculture,biodiversity,coastsandfloodplainsandwaterresources).The‘Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response’(DPSIR)approachprovidedastructureforlinkingthemodellingandscenariotechniques.A5×5kmgridwaschosenfornumericalmodellinginput(climateandsocio-economicscenarios)andoutput,asacompromisebetweentheclimatescenarioresolution(10×10km)andthedetailedspatialresolutionoutputdesiredbystakeholders.FundamentalmethodologicalissueshavebeenraisedbyRegISwhichreflectthedifficultyofmulti-sectoralmodellingstudiesatlocalscales.Inparticular,theroleofscenarios,errorpropagationinlinkedmodels,modelvalidity,transparencyandtransportabilityaswellastheuseofintegratedassessmenttoevaluateadaptationoptionstoclimatechangeareexamined.Integratedassessmentswillprovidenewinsightswhichwillcomplimentthosederivedbymoredetailedsectoralassessments.1.IntroductionThereisgrowingacceptancethattheclimateischangingduetohumanemissionsofgreenhousegases(IPCC,2001a).Suchchangesinclimatewillaffectallsectorsofsocietyatdifferentscales,rangingfromtheglobaltothelocal.Itisalsorecognisedthatsignificantsocio-economicandpoliticalchangeswillalsocontinuetooccur(IPCC,1996;NakicenovicandSwart,2000)andtheimpactofclimatechangeneedstobeevaluatedinaholisticassessmentoftheeffectsofourchangingfuture.Researchstrategieshavebeenreportedontheimpactsofclimatechangeonspe-cificsectors(e.g.agriculture:Downingetal.,2000;AblerandShortle,2000;water:ClimaticChange(2005)71:9–41DOI:10.1007/s10584-005-5927-yc
Springer200510I.P.HOLMANETAL.Arnell,1998;Milesetal.,2000;biodiversity:SykesandHaxeltine,1998;Leemans,1999;andcoastalzones:NichollsandMimura,1998;Nicholls,2002a).Thesehavegenerallyinvolvedthedevelopment,andapplication,ofimpactmodelstoscenar-iosofclimatechange,tounderstandthesensitivityofspecificsectorstovariationsinclimate.Otherpossible(non-climate)changeshaveoftennotbeenconsidered.However,addressingpolicyquestionsrequiresintegratedanalysis,includingtheeffectsofallchangefactors,theinteractionsbetweensectorsandanevaluationofadaptationoptionsforindividualstakeholdersatthelocalandregionalscale(CashandMoser,2000).Thisisbecausetheactualimpactsofclimatechangelocallyorregionallywillbetheproductofmultipleinteractingsystems.Thisrequirestheparadigmofclimatechangeimpacts’assessmenttoshiftinfocus:•frompresentingpotential(usuallyworst-case)impactstoanalysingdifferentadaptationoptions(e.g.JohnstonandChiotti,2000;Downingetal.,1997);and•fromsectoralconcernstointegratedassessmentsoflandscapesandeconomies(e.g.Handmeretal.,1999;Smitetal.,2001;Fisher,2000).Integratedassessment(IA)hasbeendefinedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeas‘aninterdisciplinaryprocessthatcombines,interprets,andcommunicatesknowledgefromdiversescientificdisciplinesfromthenaturalandsocialsciencestoinvestigateandunderstandcausalrelationshipswithinandbe-tweencomplicatedsystems’(IPCC,2001b).Itisaxiomaticthattherearetwomainprinciplestointegratedassessment:(1)integrationoverarangeofrelevantdisci-plines;and(2)theprovisionofnewinformationabouthowcomplexreal-worldsystemsmightbehavethatenablesdecisionmaking(HarremoesandTurner,2001).Importantly,cross-sectoralimplicationsthatmightbemissedinmoretraditionalassessmentscanbeexplicitlyexploredinwaysthataremeaningfultorelevantstakeholders.AlthoughtherearepapersdescribingthetheoryofIntegratedassess-ment(forexampleJones,2001;HarremoesandTurner,2001;Warren,2002),therearefewstudieswhichdescribetheresultsofsuchanassessmentattheregional(sub-national)scale(e.g.Rosenberg1993;Yarnal,1998;Yoheetal.,1999,2002;Fisher,2000;Strzepeketal.,2001)asopposedtothesupra-nationalandglobalscales(e.g.Dowlatabadi,1995;NordhausandYang,1996;Alcamoetal.,1998;Parryetal.,1999;Tysonetal.,2001;Matsuokaetal.,2001;Toth,2003).Thispaperdescribesthefirstsuchlocaltoregional(sub-national)scalestudyintheU.K.–‘RegionalClimateChangeImpactandResponseStudiesinEastAngliaandNorthWestEngland’(RegIS)(HolmanandLoveland,2001;Holmanetal.,2001).RegISaimedtodeveloparesearchmethodologyforstakeholder-led,regionalclimatechangeimpactassessmentthatex