博弈论如何改写了经济学

,,;,,,,:,(,300071)80,,,,10,,,80,,(GameTheory),68976(J.vonNeumann)(O.Mor2genstern)1944,(J.Nash)50,,,,,,3:(player)(strategyspace)(Payoffstructure),;(),,;()(),,,,3,,,,,,(equilibrium),,,,:,,,;,,,,,,,,,,(refining),(subgameperfectequilibri2um)(properequilibrium)(sequentialequilibrium):,(),;,,(),(externalitiesofbe2haviour),,;,,(completeinformation),:,;,78COMPARISON&DRAWLESSONSFROMECONOMIST976,:,;,,,,,,;,,(A1Cournot)(J.P.Betrand),1933,(E1H1Chamberlin)4:(),(differentiatedproducts),,,,,;,,,,,,(GDebreu)(K1Arrow),,,3:,;,,,;,,,,,,,,,,(J1Bain),,,,,,,,,;,,,(repeatedgame)(multi-stage88976game),(prisonersdilemma),,,(,1996):,,,,,,,(),,:,,,,,(),(Folktheo2rem),,,,,,:(R&D),,,,(sunkcosts);,(stategic),(tactic),R&D:R&D,()(),;,,,,,,,R&D,,(Chain-storeparadox)1982,(D1Kreps)(R.Wilson),,R&D(Choil,1991)(signalingmodels)(Roberts,1987),98COMPARISON&DRAWLESSONSFROMECONOMIST976,,,,,?,,?,,,,,,,,,;,,,70,,,(),,,,,();,;,(asymmetricinformation),,(agent),(principal),60,,,,,N,,,N,60,(J1C1Harsanyi),,(Bayes-Nashequilibrium),(),,(),,(participationconstraints);,,,,,,(),,09976(incentivecompatibilitycon2straints)(),,,;,,;,,(),,?,,,,,,,,,,(signalingmodels),,(),,,(),,(moralhazard)(adverseselection),,,;,(),,,(),,,,,,,,,,,80,,,199419963,,,,19COMPARISON&DRAWLESSONSFROMECONOMIST976?,(sta2ble)(consistent)(well-or2dered),(Macfadyen,1986),,,(commonknowledge),,;,,,([move]),,,,,,3,,,,,,,,(re2versededuction)lv,,,(),,(statesofworld)(belief),;,,,(Bayeslaw)lw,,(1996),,(),,(,),,,,;,,,,(bargaininggames),lx,,29976,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,;,;,(Winter,1971;Mathews,1984),,,,1982,(R1Nelson)(S1Winter),,,,,,,,40(H1Simon),(BinmoreandDasgupta,1986),,,,,,,,,,,():(bindingagreement)(non-coop2erativegame),(cooperativegame)(),(R1Selten)(J.C.Harsanyi)199439COMPARISON&DRAWLESSONSFROMECONOMIST976,,,,,([incrediblethreats]),,,,(),,KohlbergandMertens(1986),,,,,,,,,,,,J1W1Friedman(1990)Shapiro(1989),,:,(),;();,(),():,,,,,,,,,Myerson(1991),,,(1996)(1996)(H.Simon):,,30,,103,40,,10120(1991),51lv,,,,lw:EP(E),49976AP(A);,,A,E:P(E|A)=P(A|E)P(E)/P(A)P(E|A)AE(),E;P(A|E)EA,lxBinmoreetal.(1985),Guthetal.(1982):Binmore,K.andG.Dasgupta(1986),E2conomicOrgnizationasGames.NewYork:BasilBlackewllLtd.Binmore,K.Shaked,A.andJ.Sutton(1985),Fairnessorgamesmanshipinbargain2ing?anexperimentalstudyICERDDiscus2sionPaper,84/102,LondonSchoolofEconomics.Choi,J.P.(1991),DynamicR&Dcom2petitionunderhazardrateuncertainty,RandJournalofEconomics,22:596-610.Friedman,J.W.(1990),GameTheorywithApplicationstoEconomics,2ndedition.Ox2ford:OxfordUniversityPress.Guth,W.,Schmittberger,K.andB.Schwartze(1982),Anexperimentalanalysisofultimatumbargaining,JournalofEconomicBe2haviourandOrganization,3:367-388.Kohlberg,E.andJ.Mertens(1986),Onthestrategicstabilityofequilbria,Econometrica,54:1003-1039.Kreps,D.andR.Wilson(1982),Repu2tationandimperfectioninformation,JournalofEconomicsTheory,27:253-279.Macfadyen,A.J.(1986),Rationaleco2nomicman-anintruductionservey,inA.J.MacfadyenandA.W.Macfadyen(eds),Eco2nomicPsychologyIntroductioninTheoryandAp2plicationAmsterdam:North-Holland.Mathews,R.C.O.(1984),DarwinismandEconomicChange,OxfordEconomicPapers,36:91-117.Myerson,W.(1991),GameTheory:analysisofConflict,Cambridge,Mass:Har2vardUniv.Press.Roberts,J.(1987),BattlesformarketshareIncompleteinformation,aggressivestrategicpricingandcomptitivedynamics,in:T.Bewley(ed),AdvamcesinEconomicsTheory,InvitedPapersfromtheVthWorldCongress.NewYork:CombridgeUniversityPress.Shapiro,C.(1989),Thetheoryofbusinessstrategy,RandJournalofEconomics,20:125-137.Winter,S.(1971),Satisficing,selectionandtheinnovatingremnent,QuartarlyJournalofEconomics,85:237-261.H1(1972):,,1991(1996):,3(1996):,,(:)59COMPARISON&DRAWLESSONSFROMECONOMIST976