就业弹性、自然失业和宏观经济政策

Thispaperexplainswhyeconomicgrowthhasnotbroughtaboutrevealedemploymentgrowth.First,anti-cyclemacroeconomicpoliciesareincapableofsolvingnaturalunemployment,whichdominatestheoverallunemploymentinChina.Second,theinvestmentsdrivenbyexpansivemacroeconomicpoliciessince1998haveoverwhelminglyconcentratedinlowemploymentsectors.Therefore,thepolicyeffortsshouldbemadetoimprovelabormarket,strengthenoccupationaltrainingsystem,andpromotehighemploymentsectors.employmentelasticityNAIRUmacroeconomicpolicies1995-20024.0%6.1%72.9%66.5%200420022003112090Rawski,20012003200420026.1%120032.561.11.471%19952721907.94.072.919962841998.23.972.919973012089.84.572.2199832421614.56.371.2199932722414.05.972.9200036623219.17.668.5200137723914.15.667.3200239724816.26.166.52003GDP1UNDP,1999,p.9919997.9%-8.5%Solinger,20012GDP1979-1981-0.212001-20030.151.00-0.040.880.44GDP0.440.13GDPGDPGDPGDP10.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.351980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200212004320909020000.3120020.19GDP10.190.20.3-0.432Ottosen19962090Phillips,1958TriangleModelStaiger1997tttttXLDLLεγβπδπ+++=−)()()(11DtXt2nonacceleratinginflationrateofunemploymentNAIRUOttosenetal.,1996,p.114)(Lδ)(Lβ)(LγLtε1Gorden1990CongressionalBudgetOffice1994Weiner1993Tootel1994Fuhrer1995Staiger1997RandomWalk1−=tetππtettπππ∆=−3utttttXLLuuLεγπδβπ++∆+−=∆−−)()())((1122uuLuuLpiitt)()())((011∑=−−−=−βββupii)(0∑==βµtttttXLLuLεγπδβµπ++∆++=∆−−)()()(113βµˆ/ˆ−=u4∑==Lii1ββ434241.0%2NAIRUtπ∆t3AR(1)1−+=tetαπµπ1)(−+=tetLπαµπ4General-to-SimpleRuleAdjR-squaredAICAkaikeinformationcriterionSCSchwarz'scriterionAdjR-squaredAICSC3451−tu2.52-6.732−tu.24.543−tu1.987.964−tu1.95-5.941−∆tπ.69-.152−∆tπ3.67-.823−∆tπ.55-.114−∆tπ3.67-.82.8426.35µ.494.17Durbin-Watson2.33AdjR-squared.362119842020801.5Stiglitz,1997IitttuuiiitL.2,1,1==−ttttttXLLuLBεγπδβλπ++∆++=∆−−−)()()(111'5BtttB'λ=uλβλ∑=−=Lii1)(19851988199633NAIRUtπ∆t1−tu-4.911.702−tu.750.293−tu6.561.584−tu-7.131.671−∆tπ-.391.352−∆tπ-.954.023−∆tπ-.170.784−∆tπ-.692.7261978-1984-17.901.011985-1988-1.570.21990-1995-8.360.771996-2002-20.931.53110.371.81Durbin-Watson2.57AdjR-squared.36211978-19843.79%1985-19880.33%1989-19951.77%19954.43%250.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.01978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002%21319981998-20023.285766002000200019981.8819992.9620001.7820012.1720021.8330.62%43.92%22.22%24.89%17.94%1998200293325.5%18.8%16.0%13.9%8.7%83%2003--6325.518.816.013.98.70.04284216114740510152025303540%11010010003199820026119985.67%200221.98%565.08%8.64%5.31%538.54%GDP100061985-2002200210%-8199853407.50200286910.70562.73%1996GDP1997-20024.2%6.7%12.9%10.9%16.2%16.3%WorldBank,2004209019902.119953.720015.24.32090200494GDP4Rawski,ThomasG.(2001),“What'sHappeningtoChina'sGDPStatistics?”ChinaEconomicReview,Vol.12,No.4,December,pp.298-302.Solinger,DorothyJ.(2001),WhyWeCannotCounttheUnemployed?TheChinaQuarterly,No.167(August),pp.671-688.UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgram(UNDP)(1999),ChinaHumanDevelopmentReport–1999:TransitionandtheState,NewYork.CongressionalBudgetOffice(1994),“ReestimatingtheNAIRU”inTheEconomicandBudgetOutlook,August1994.10Futher,J.(1995),“ThePhillipsCurveisAliveandWell,”NewEnglandEconomicReviewofFederalReserveBankofBoston,March/April1995.Gorden,R.(1990)“WhatisNew-KeynesianEconomics?”JournalofEconomicLiterature,Vol.28,1115-1171.Ottosen,GarryK.andDouglasN.Thompson1996ReducingUnemployment:ACaseforGovernmentDeregulation,Westport,ConnecticutLondon:PraegerPublishers.Phillips,E.(1958),“theRelationbetweenUnemploymentandtheRateofChangeofMoneyWageRatesintheUnitedKingdom1861-1957,”Economica,Vol.25283-299.Stager,D.,Stock,J.andWatson,M.(1997),“HowPreciseAreEstimatesoftheNaturalRateofUnemployment?”NBERWorkingPaperSeries,No.5447.Stiglitz,J.(1997),“ReflectionsontheNaturalRateHypothesis.”TheJournalofEconomicPerspectives,Vol.11,No.1,pp.3-10.Tootel,G.(1994),“Restructuring,theNAIRU,andthePhillipsCurve,”NewEnglandEconomicReviewofFederalReserveBankofBoston,September/Ocotober1994.Weiner,S.(1993),“NewEstimatesoftheNaturalRateofUnemployment.”EconomicReviewofFederalReserveBankofKansas,FourthQuarter,53-69.WorldBank.(2004)20021020034200342003920044200411