水合物气资源经济评估模型

:2007206214;:20072072111:(:05200113);(:KZCX32SW2224).:(19822),,,,.E-mail:[e-mail].1,2,3,1,2,1,2,1,2(1.,510640;2.,510640;3.,100039):,,,,,,2,3,25%,,:;;;:TE122:A:167221926(2007)04206012060,,,,,,,,,,,,1,,,,,[1],,,,,,,:700m,;,,30,116,18420078NATURALGASGEOSCIENCEVol.18No.4Aug.2007:,,,[2],[3],,;,2,[4],HoskoldMorkill,,,,,,,,,,,[5]2.1,(NPV):NPV=nt=1(CI-CO)t(1+i0)-t(1):NPV;CI;CO;t,t=0,1,2,,n;i0(1+i0)-tt2.2(CO),,:(1)4((1993)94),,,,70%,30%,,,,,,,:4(1),,1,30%40%,(),,(2),,[6]206Vol.18,,,:[7]2.3(CI),3[829]:,,,,,,,2.4,,,[10213],3(),,3.1(CO)()[14]::CO=n1t=1(Ce)t(1+id)-t(1+fk1)-t+n2t=n1+1(1+id)-t[(Cz)t(1+fk2)-t+(Cd)t(1+fk3)-t]+n4t=n2+1(Cj)t(1+id)-t(1+fk4)-t+n4t=1(Cl)(1+id)-t+1n4t=1(Tx)t(1+id)-t(2):ifCO=n1t=1(Ce)t(1+id)-t(1+fk1)-tt-1S=0[1+(if)S]-1+n2t=n1+1(1+id)-tt-1S=0[1+(if)S]-1[(Cz)t(1+fk2)-t+(Cd)t(1+fk3)-t]+n4t=n2+1(Cj)t(1+id)-t(1+fk4)-tt-1S=0[1+(if)S]-1+n2t=1Cl(1+id)-t+1t-1S=0[1+(if)S]-1+n4t=1(Tx)t(1+id)-tt-1S=0[1+(if)S]-1(3),,CdhnCjhn,:Cd=CdnCdhn(4)Cj=CjnCjhn(5)CdnCjn;,,CdhnCjhn13.2(CI),[15]::CI=n3t=n2+1fsPQVt(1+id)-t+n4t=n3+1(fsP)[QVt-QVt-[Cjö(fsP)](t-n3)n3-n2](1+id)-t+n2t=1Cl(1+id)-t(6)306No.4::ifCl=n3t=n2+1fsPQVt(1+id)-t(t-1S=0(1+(if)S)-1)+n4t=n3+1(fsP)[QVt-QVt-[Cjö(fsP)](t-n3)n3-n2](1+id)-tt-1S=0[1+(if)S]-1+n2t=1Cl(1+id)-tn4-1S=0[1+(if)S]-1(7)313,CI,CO(1):NPV=CI-CO=n3t=n2+1fsPQVt(1+id)-t+n4t=n3+1(fsP)QVt-QVt-[Cjö(fsP)](t-n3)n3-n2(1+id)-n1t=1(Ce)t(1+id)-t(1+fk1)-t-n2t=n1+1(1+id)-t[(Cz)t(1+fk2)-t+(Cd)t(1+fk3)-t]-n4t=n2+1(Cj)t(1+id)-t(1+fk4)-t-idn4t=1Cl(1+id)-t+1-n4t=n2+1(Tx)t(1+id)-t(8),CI,CO(1):NVP=CI-CO=n3t=n2+1fsPQVt(1+id)-tt-1S=0[1+(if)S]-1+n4t=n3+1(fsP)QVt-QVt-[Cjö(fsP)](t-n3)n3-n2(1+id)t-1S=0[1+(if)S]-1-n1t=1(Ce)t(1+id)-t(1+fk1)-tt-1S=0[1+(if)S]-1-n2t=n1+1(1+id)-tt-1S=0[1+(if)S]-1[(Cz)t(1+fk2)-t+(Cd)t(1+fk3)-t]-n4t=n2+1(Cj)t(1+id)-t(1+fk4)-tt-1S=0[1+(if)S]-1-idn4t=1Cl(1+id)-t+1n4-1S=0[1+(if)S]-1-n4t=n2+1(Tx)t(1+id)-tt-1S=0[1+(if)S]-1(9)4,:41013m3,0.023();27,2,5000;2,20000,10000,10000(5000,,2);23;15%;0155öm3,0.95;0.2öm3(0.1öm3,2);id0.1;fk1=0.01[16],fk2=0.02,fk3=01015,fk4=0.01,(if=0)9.50045107,1152069108,1150234108,4.374871011,1.536951012,,,,11,2,3,25%,,5,,(NPV)0406Vol.181(a)CdhnNPV;(b)fk4NPV;(c)CjhnNPV;(d)TxNPV,,,(NPV),txCj,,,:t:t=0,t=1n1,t=n1+1n2,t=n2+1n3,t=n3+1n4;P;Q;Vt;id;(if)t;Tx;fs;(Ce)t;fk1;(Cz)t;fk2;(Cd)t;fk3;(Cj)t;fk4;Cl:[1],.[J].,2002,23(6):12215.[2],.[J].,1999,21(1):83287.[3],,.[J].,2004,27(6):23225.[4]H.B..[M].:,1996:7252784.[5],.[J].,2003,11(2):47249.[6],.[J].,2004,24(12):1582160.[7],,.[J].,2003,25(5):28232.[8].[J].,2002,10(12):40242.[9],.[J].,1999,21(2):88292.[10],.[J].,2004,16(4):2542258.[11],.[J].,2004,12(2):38240.[12],,.[J].,2005,28(3):50252.[13].[J].,2002,(9):43245.[14].[J].,2002,9(1):21223.[15].[J].,1998,(3):9210.[16].[J].,1994,2(4):33235.506No.4:ECONOMICEVALUATIONMODELOFNATURALGASHYDRATERESOURCELIUXiao2yu1,2,3,FANShuan2shi1,2,LIANGDe2qing1,2,LIDong2liang1,2(1.GuangzhouInstituteforEnergyConversion,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Guangzhou510640,China;2.GuangzhouCenterforGasHydrateResearch,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Guangzhou510640,China;3.GraduateSchoolofChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100039,China)Abstract:Aneconomicallyrecoverableanalysismodelofgashydrateisbuiltaccordingtotheinternation2allyutilizednetpresentvaluemethodincombinationwithcharacteristicsofnaturalgashydrateexploita2tion.Throughquantificationprocessingofvariousinfluencingfactors,theexpressionofeveryeconomicparameterisbuilttomakethemodeleasierforpracticaloperation.Theresultofanalogcalculationshowsthateveniftheoperatingcostofnaturalgashydrateisincreasedto2timesofthatofconventionalgas,surfaceengineeringinvestmentto3timesofthatofconventionalgas,andtaxrateby25%,thecalculatednetpresentvalueisstillpositive,whichindicatesthatwestillcanobtainhugeeconomicreturnsfromtheprojectofgashydrateexploitation.Theotherfeatureofthemodelistheintroductionofinflationratewhichmakesthemodelclosertopracticalsituation.Keywords:Naturalgashydrate;Netpresentvalue;Influencingfactor;Economicrecoverability.(500)CHARACTERISTICSANDEXPLORATIONFIELDSOFPALEO-KARSTRESERVOIRSATTHETOPOFEARLYORDOVICIANINCENTRALTARIMUPLIFTMIAOJi2jun1,2,3,JIACheng2zao2,ZOUCai2neng2,DENGShu2you3,GOUZhu2ming3,SONGYu2bing3,HOUXiang2hui3(1.Basin&ReservoirResearchCenter,ChinaUniversityofPetroleum,Beijing102249,China;2.ResearchInstituteofPetroleumExploration&Development,PetroChina,Beijing100083,China;3.TarimOilFieldCompany,PetroChina,Korla841000,China)Abstract:TheoilandgasdiscoveriesintheearlyOrdovicianpaleo2karstreservoirsareanotherbigbreak2through,afterthereef2shoalcomplexreservoirswerefoundintheTarimbasin.ThePaleo2karstreservoirsweretheresultofmiddleCaledoniantectonicmovementshappenedinmiddleOrdovician.Solutioncavities,corrosionholes,andfracturesweredeveloped,whichmadeitpossibletocollectandaccumulatehydrocar2bonsalongthetopoftheearlyOrdovicianYinshanFormation.Thepaleo2karstreservoirsextendedalongthetopoftheearlyOrdovicianYingshanFormationincrosssections,andspreadoveraconsiderableex2tent,sothatthepaleo2karstreservoirsoftheYinshanFormationhadabilitiestoformlarge2scalehydrocar2bonaccumulations.Ana