经济转轨与劳动供给行为变化理论实证及含义

199910410*1(1998)(19971998b1998)(1998b1998c)2199910411(1)58.2%199756.17%40%30%1()199910412‚ƒ11995(%)55.2958.7561.5868.5670.01(%)72.2372.8776.4377.4588.27‚UITL=--aa()1(0a1)(1)UITL(T-L)(2)IIwwLLU=++-()0LL0(2)(2)L0()()0(2)IU()(2)LTLIwwU=+--+-aaa011()()()(3)(2)199910413UIw=-⎛⎝⎜⎞⎠⎟-maxaaaa11(4)ImaxIIwwTLUmax()=++-0(5)(3)¶¶aL0¶¶Lw0¶¶LL00¶¶Lw0()()(3)L=L0aa=+IwIUmax(6)(6)L0T¶a¶w0¶a¶Imax0Imaxw(LL0)IUUITUU=-aa1(7)UUU199910414baaaa==-⎛⎝⎜⎞⎠⎟⎛⎝⎜⎞⎠⎟-UUITwIUUmax11(8)abab1b1ab1b1a(8)ddITwUbabaa=--⎛⎝⎜⎞⎠⎟lnln1(9)ddba=0a*=+IIwTUUb*max=+IIwTUaa*ddba0aa*ddba0ba=f()U()Ub*b*≤1b≤1b*wwL≤0L0(w)(w)(L0)b*1b1abaaba199910415(1)(2)1(3)(4)IU1(4)(10)UIw'''max=-⎛⎝⎜⎞⎠⎟-aaaa11(10)2IIwwTLUmax'''(')=++-UIITUUU111=+-()aa(11)3()UITUU'=-aa1(12)U'UU'baaaa'''''max==-⎛⎝⎜⎞⎠⎟⎛⎝⎜⎞⎠⎟-UUITwIUU11(13)b'1b'1abb'**b'1ab1a’199910416b'=1a(2)a0.1912aIUw'w’TL’a(b'=1)1010101020.241012121030.3810101020.21108101020.26710141020.19710141040.32IwwLU+'''ab'ITTABCI(IU)L0BC(w)CITDEGI’(IU1)IUTAFGI’L’FG(w')FGBCGI’CIU1U1’L0bb'**199910417U3U3’U3’’U2(U2’)1I’U1’U1U2(U2’)U3U3’IU3’’IU+wCIU+w’GIU+IU1EDIUFBA0H’HT(T)L’L00(1995)2()(1)b'aba199910418(2)60-70(1997)(3)LFPRaaIDaTaINaEDUaDUM=++++++012345mLFPR()aii=05,,Lm1ID(1998)(WorldBank,1996Rimashevskaya,19971997)()199910419IDIDxpxxiiinn=-+=∑1211()/xi(i=1,2,,n)piIDID12TTGDP3ININ4EDU5DUM(1997)199016199019901615DUMDUMttt=≥⎧⎨⎩01990119901985-1997(3)2EDU1999104201tt2()31985~1997(1)LFPR*(2)LFPR(3)LFPRC(a0)114.66890#(14.639448)114.51898(15.679933)116.65980(16.415370)ID(a1)-114.72423(-2.5444278)-117.36901(-2.9328403)-77.988785(-4.4968706)T(a2)-0.9039518(-3.5013782)-0.9082507(-3.7678818)-1.0215451(-4.6496419)IN(a3)0.0052259(0.6506298)0.0039444(1.0893459)EDU(a4)-0.0077325(-0.1819522)DUM(a5)9.7293039(608314543)9.8646938(8.6638554)10.398605(10.014846)R20.8969570.9094110.9075321.0529570.9872770.997464D-W2.1227462.1000212.043241F21.8912431.1165740.25818199910421()12199910422(1998a)()ChenKuan,WangH.,ZhengY.,G.H.JeffersonandT.G.Rawski,1988,“ProductivityChangeinChineseIndustry:1953-1985,”JournalofComparativeEconomics12,570-591.ChowG.C.,1993,“CapitalFormationandEconomicGrowthinChina,”QuarterJournalofEconomics,August,P.809-842.Commander,S.andR.Yemtsov,1997,“CharacteristicsoftheUnemployed,”inJeniKlugman(ed.)PovertyinRussia:PublicPolicyandPrivateResponses,The199910423InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment,TheWorldBank.Dollar,D.,1990,“EconomicReformandAllocativeEfficiencyinChina’sState-ownedIndustry,”EconomicDevelopmentandCulturalChange,1990,P.89-105.Hu,Z.F.andM.S.Khan,1997,“WhyIsChinaGrowingSoFast?”IMFStaffPapers,Vol.44,No.1(March1977),P.103-131.Jefferson,G.H.,T.G.RawskiandY.Zheng,1992,“Growth,Efficiency,andConvergenceinChina’sStateandCollectiveIndustry,”EconomicDevelopmentandCulturalChange,1992,P.239-266.,and,1996,“ChineseIndustrialProductivity:Trends,MeasurementIssues,andRecentDevelopments,”JournalofComparativeEconomics23,146-180.Rimashevskaya,N.,1997,“PovertyTrendsinRussia:ARussianPerspective,”inJeniKlugman(ed.)PovertyinRussia:PublicPolicyandPrivateResponses,TheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment,TheWorldBank.Woo,WingThye,W.Hai,Y.JinandG.Fan,1994,“HowSuccessfulHasChineseEnterpriseReformBeen?PitfallsinOppositeBiasesandFocus,”JournalofComparativeEconomics18,410-437.WorldBank,1996,WorldDevelopmentReport1996:FromPlantoMarket,NewYork:OxfordUniversityPress.