规模和产业结构的关联效应、城市化与经济内生增长

20063(510006):,,,,,,,,:,,(R.Solow,1956),,,(),,,,,,:(Romer,1990;GrossmanHelpman,1991;AghionHowitt,1992),;(Lucas,1988;Mankiw,N.Gregory,Romer,David,andWeil,DavidN,1992),,,,91©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(Mills,E.S.,1967),,,(Henderson,J,1982)(Sullivan,A.M,1983).((Abdel-Rah2man,199019961993)(Beeson,1987),C-D,,,,,,,,(1999);(2002),;(2003),;(2001)(2004),,:,,,,:;;1.,n(Henderson,J,1982),,02©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:Y=AgKL1-(1):Y;A;K;L;g,g,(1),g,,,,(Lewis,1954),,,,,,,,,,:;,,,:,,,,,,,,:g=f(rat,y,UI),f/1()0,f2()0,f/3()0(2):rat,;y;UInA,,K,,s,:K=sY=sAgKL1-,01(3),2.,gK,gK,(2),C-D,(2):g=f(rat,y,UI)=B(rat)1Y1(UI)1,B0,10,10,011(4)(1)(4),:g=BA1g1K1(1-)(rat)1(UI)1(5)g:12©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(t)=gg=BA1g1-1K1L1(1-)(rat)1(UI)1(6),K:Gk(t)=KK=sAgK-1L1-(7)Gg(t)GK(t),Gg(t)GK(t)0,Gg(t)GK(t),,Gg(t)GK(t),Gg(t)GK(t)(6)(7)t:G1(t)=(1-1)Gg(t)+1GK(t)+1(1-)n+1Grat+1GUI(8)G2(t)=Gg(t)+(-1)GK(t)+(1-)n(9)G1(t)G2(t)Gg(t)GK(t)(8),G1(t),Gg(t);G1(t),Gg(t),G2(t),GK(t);G2(t),GK(t),G1(t)G2(t)0,Gg(t)GK(t)Gg(t)GK(t),=1(1-)n+1Grat+1GUI,G1(t)G2(t)0:Gg(t)=+11-1GK(t)(10)Gg(t)=n(-1)+(1-)GK(t)(11),,(10)(11),(10)(11),+1-10,(10)(11),,,,+1-10,9G1(t)9Gg(t)=1-10,Gg(t):,Gg(t)0;,Gg(t)0,9G2(t)9GK(t)=-10,,GK(t)0;,GK(t)0,11,:;,A,,E,B,,,,,Gg(t)=0,Gg(t),0,,,,E,,E,E,YA22©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(8)Gg(t)(9)GK(t),,,(10)(11),,(10),GratGUI,1Gg(t)=0,,,,,,,0,,,,,,:,1.(1)(4),:(Y)(K)(L)(g)(rat)(UI),,,(GNP)(rat=100indu3/indu2),,32©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(2004),,,(2003),,,(g=100upo/po),,,,(proxyvariable),,,,,,,2.,,:lnGNPt=10+1lnKt+lnLt+1gt+11gt-1++n11gt-n++u1t,011(12)gt=20+2lnGNPt+3t+2ratt+22ratt-1++n22ratt-n++v1t,021(13)(12)(13)(Koyck,1954):lnGNPt=30+31lnKt+32lnKt-1+33lnLt+34lnLt-1+35gt+36lnGNPt-1+u2t(14)gt=40+41lnGNPt+42lnGNPt-1+43ratt+44gt-1+45lnIUt+46lnIUt-1+v2t(15)30=(1-)10,31=1,32=-1,33=,34=-,35=1,36=-1,40=(1-)20,41=2,42=-2,43=2,44=-2:GNPt,(15);GNPt-1;Kt;Kt-1;Lt;Lt-1;IUt;IUt-1;gt;rat,,(14)(15)(14)(15),3.,:,1978-2003;lnGNPlnK,,42,©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(14)(15)t;1997,,(15)D,19970,1,3543,4142(16)(17)2SLS,:12SLS:lnGNPt:gt12TT34TC-6.34-0.91-21.02-3.72C39.632.923.510.83LnGNPt-10.431.940.341.34eLnGNPt-1.23-0.95-1.79-0.64LnKt1.432.621.492.35LnGNPt-10.641.730.731.25LnKt-1-0.96-2.38-0.59-1.33rat0.021.760.02-1.08lnLt0.911.751.482.66gt-10.522.571.011.90LnLt-1-0.02-0.030.340.49d0.020.33-0.18-0.23egt0.052.350.041.72t0.872.76t0.062.75lnIUt0.030.050.500.80lnIUt-10.661.20-0.09-0.17ADR0.990.99ADR0.990.99DW1.931.23DW2.381.70F26222347F734767:egteLnGNPtgtLnGNPt2SLS,1,,lnGNPt,12:,1T2;1DW2,,,,OLS,,,,,(),1,gt,3T4,31,,0,gt,,T,,,1,0.051(e0.05-1)52©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(0.05(1-0.43)),0.092(e0.088-1),1%,0.1%3,,,ratgt-1,,,0.03,1,,0.02,1%,0.02%,,0.52,0.042,1,0.042,1%,0.042%,,,10.0042%,,,,3,,,10%,LnGNPtLnGNPt-10,,1%,0.64,,,,,,,,,1997:,;,,,,:621810%,T1.734LnGNPt,,,©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:(1):[J],19999(2):[J],20022(3):[J],20036(4):[J],20014(5):[J],20046(6)[].[].S.:(3)[M],,2003(7)Romer,PaulM.1990,EndogenousThchnologicalChange.,JournalofPoliticalEconomy98:712102.Aghion,Philippe,andHowitt,Peter.1992AmodelofGrowththroughGreativeDestruction.Econometri2ca60:3232351.(8)Lucas,Robert,1988,OntheMechanicsofEconomicDevelopment.,JournalofMonetaryEconomics22:3242.(9)Mankiw,N.Gregory,Romer,David,andWeil,DavidN,1992,AcontributiontotheEmpiricsofEconomicGrowth.,QuarterlyJournalofEconomics:4072437.(10)Helsley,R.W.C.Strange(1990)MatchingandagglomerationeconomiesinasystemofcitiesUrbanEco2nomics29:962112.(11)R.Solow,AContributiontotheTheoryofEconomicGrowth,QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,1956,70,65294.(12)Mills,E.S.,(1967),Anaggregativemodelofresourceallocationinametropolitanarea,AmericanEco2nomicReview57:1972210.(13)Henderson,j.(1982),Systemsofcitiesinclosedandopeneconomies,RegionalScienceandUrbanEco2nomics12:3252350.(ZH)72©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.