公共财政与中国国民收入的高储蓄倾向

公共财政与中国国民收入的高储蓄倾向徐忠张雪春丁志杰唐天:将国有企业从企业部门中分离出来,与政府部门合并为公共部门,其储蓄率称为公共部门储蓄率;并将非国有企业与居民合并为私人部门,其储蓄率称为私人部门储蓄率据此提出的中国高储蓄率的公共财政假说认为:2000年以来中国储蓄率持续高涨,是由政府的赢利性动机及其对公共财政职能产生的挤出效应推动的,并带来了公共支出的不足结果,居民和非国有企业不得不增加预防性储蓄利用我国1996!2006年30个省面板实证检验的结果验证了此假说:储蓄率公共支出政府赢利性动机作者徐忠,经济学博士,中国人民银行研究员(北京100800);张雪春,经济学博士,中国人民银行金融研究所(北京100800);丁志杰,经济学博士,对外经济贸易大学教授(北京100029);唐天,中国人民银行金融研究所实习生(北京100800)2008,,,,,1999,∀197810;1978!1997371%,199340%;#Kraay,1978!199537%,21%;∃Kuijs,2003,2002282%218%17%115%%,30%&,,∋93∋∀#∃%&:(),()19993:(),()199911A.Kraay,∗HouseholdSavinginChina,WorldBankEconomicReview,vol.14,no.3,2000,pp.545570.L.Kuijs,∗InvestmentandSavinginChina,WorldBankPolicyResearchPaperSeries,no.3633(June2005),:(:1992!2001),()200631992!20012269%,40%,1587%,,,,S/Y=s0/Y+s,S,s,Y,,,S/Y=s0+sg+e,s0,s,g,eModiglianiCao1953!2000,∀,,,,#,∃,,,,;%,,,&HoriokaWan,1995!2004,,+,,1975!2005,20,,,,−,,,,,;,.,,,∋94∋中国社会科学2010年第6期∀#∃%&+,−.F.ModiglianiandS.LarryCao,∗TheChineseSavingPuzzleandtheLifecycleHypothesis,JournalofEconomicLiterature,vol.42,no.2,2004,pp.145170.:(:),()200511:(!!!),()200712F.ModiglianiandS.LarryCao,∗TheChineseSavingPuzzleandtheLifecycleHypothesis;:(:),()200711:(),()200011=0!14/15!64CharlesYujiHoriokaandJunminWan,∗TheDeterminantsofHouseholdSavinginChina:ADynamicPanelAnalysisofProvincialData,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,vol.39,no.8,2007,pp.20772096.ShangjinWeiandXiaoboZhang,∗SexRatiosandSavingsRates:Evidencefrom/ExcessMen0inChina,workingpaper,2009,:(2090),()20074:(),()19996:(),()200010∀#,2000,,;,,,,,1996!200630,,GDP,∃,,%Kuijs&+,,,,,:11992!2007−1992!20074248%1969%1613%666%,379%18%242%164%,,1992!20002108%165%,∋95∋公共财政与中国国民收入的高储蓄倾向∀#∃%&+,−:(:1999!2003),()200410:(:),()200810:(),()19996:(),()200511!12L.Kuijs,∗InvestmentandSavinginChina.:(!!!1992!2003),()20076:(2008),:,2008,771992,,,:40%,272000,20072182%,53%,385%5088%,124%2000,,55%148%;2000!2007,64%106%,156%184%,Kuijs,,∀,,2000#Kuijs,,,;,,11992!2007::()(:):=(-)/,,;19831984,1994,,,,,2003!2007,∋96∋中国社会科学2010年第6期∀#,,,LKuijs(2005),(2007),=(-)/,=(-)/,=(-)/,,(2007),,,,1∀L.Kuijs,∗InvestmentandSavinginChina.:(!!!1992!2003),()20076597,2007157,∀306%1995!2007GDP151,167,1311992!2007,=+,=+-;,,,2,,21992!2007Kuijs,,(3):,;,,31992!2007:,3456,,∋97∋公共财政与中国国民收入的高储蓄倾向∀:()2008927,:∋98∋中国社会科学2010年第6期(),,,∀,,1994,193%,GDP139,158%;187%,1516%,,,Kuijs,,,,,,,;,,,,#24,1994!1998,∃38%014%,298%194%,79%35%;1998!2007,,014%49%,194%564%,35%174%41992!2007∋99∋公共财政与中国国民收入的高储蓄倾向∀#∃:(),()200871993!1994,,;,;,:(),()20069=/(),,,,,,,;,,,,,∀,,,,,5,,1993!1998,,,2000,2002;,2000,3425%,15%46%,200241%2006386%,,,51992!2007(),,,,1990,∋100∋中国社会科学2010年第6期∀:(),()20087,∀,,,,;,#,∃1999,,,%61999,,;1999,,,,;,,,,61992!2007(),,∋101∋公共财政与中国国民收入的高储蓄倾向∀#∃%:(),()19996;:(),()200011;:(:1999!2003),()200410;:(!!!),()20082:(),()20055:(),()20098:(:),()200810,2000,,:,,;,,,20001:∀2:()3:(),,,,,;,,,,,,,#,,,(),:1:,;2:,1,,,2,(),,,1996!200630,:∋102∋中国社会科学2010年第6期∀#,,,(),,;;:(),:,2008∋:(!!!),,:,1999PUBSRit=1+2SOEPERFit-1+Xit+it(1)PUBEXPit=!1+!2SOEPERFit-1+∀Yit+#it(2)PRISRit=∃1+∃2PUBEXPit+%Zit+&it(3),PUBSR,PUBEXPGDP,PRISR,SOEPERF,XYZ(1)(2)(3)it#it&it,1!1∃1,2!2∃2,∀%,,,,,,2,!2,,,,∃2()1.∀,,,GDPGDP:(++-)/GDP;,GDP,2.GDP,,,GDP,,,,,3.,;,,,,,,ModiglianiCao,∋103∋公共财政与中国国民收入的高储蓄倾向∀:,GDP;,;,∀(1)GDPGDP,,,(2)(Young)(Old),Young0!1415!64,Old6515!64,,,22(1996!200630)(GDP-)/GDP3304328%926%884%5955%(++-)/GDP330571%487%-434%2340%-3303757%1122%-112%5806%/3302660%621%840%5158%/330021%160%-460%768%GDP(/)GDP/330107086020577GDP(GDP-GDP)/GDP3301001%250%300%2370%(/)/330428%361%041%2486%0!14/15!643303175%853%1045%5270%65/15!643301104%253%613%2188%/330104003095113330315%172%198%747%330167%285%-360%1160%:121996,2007,1996!20063,,30114,;()SUR(SeeminglyUnrelatedRegression)(1)(2),SUR∋104∋中国社会科学2010年第6期∀F.ModiglianiandS.LarryCao,∗TheChineseSavingPuzzleandtheLifecycleHypothesis.∋105∋公共财政与中国国民收入的高储蓄倾向,Wooldridge∀Drukker#,,AR(1),:uit=p1uit-1+eit#it=p2#it-1+&iteit&it(1)(3(1)(2)),HausmanP0928,,1%,CPI5%,,1%,1,,,CPI,(2)(3(3)(4)),Hausman0685,,,2,,,(3)3(5)(6),(6),1%,2,GDP,,1995!2006-0215,-0584(1)(2)(3)3(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(1)(2)(3)SUR,1%,,,12,1%,(1)(2),1SUR,3(11),,YoungOld,,,,,CPI,,CPI,,∋106∋中国社会科学2010年第6期∀#J.M.Wooldridge,EconometricAnalysisofCrossSectionandPanelData,Cambridge:MITPress,2002.D.M.Drukker,∗TestingforSerialCorrelationinLinearPaneldataModels,TheStataJournal,vol.3,no.2,2003,pp.168177.,,Kuijs,,,,,,,;,,,GDP,,,,,,,,,,,1992,2000,,,;,,,,,,,1责任编辑:许建康2∋107∋公共财政与中国国民收入的高储蓄倾向universaltoreflectonhisphilosophicalsystem;whileaffirmingthecategoricalformalismofphilosophicalconcepts,herevealedthe∗peculiarcontentofthesecategoriesasameansofgraspingactualityandtheirintellectualmovements,thusrealizingthemutualaccommodationofrationalityandintuition(mystery).AreviewofFengsphilosophicalsysteminaccordancewiththetheoreticalreflectionsofhislateryearswillindicatetheconsistencyofhisthoughtthroughouthisl