农民农业收入影响因素的实证分析

:2009209215:(19642),,,;(19842),,,19792008,(,310018):1985-2007,,,;,;:;:F32318:A:100424892(2010)0220013206,,,1331620074140,1978661720074311,,1997(1),,,1,199711986-2007:312(150)20103CollectedEssaysonFinanceandEconomicsNo.2(General,No.150)Mar.2010(200760%),,,(2001)ZhangFan(2004)(2006),[1][2][3](2008),,[4](2005),,[5](2007),,[6](2008),,[7](RobertSolow)(2001),[1](2004)(2003),,[8][9],:,,,;,,,,,,,(),:Y=f(K,F,T,L)(1),Y,K,F,T,L(2005)[10],:dY=m9f9KdK+m9f9FdF+m9f9TdT(2),m(),YKFT(K),(T),(FD)(FI),:F=g(FD,FI)(3)(3)(2),(4):4120102dYm=9f9KdK+9f9FDdFD+9f9FIdFI+9f9TdT(4)1,2,3,4,,(4):dR=0+1dK+2dFD+3dFI+4dT+t(5),R,0,t()1985-2007,;;1985-1993,1994-2005,20062007(2008)(),DickeyFuller(1981)ADF,,,Johansen,,(VECM)()Eviews510,lnRlnKlnFDlnFIlnT,lnRlnKlnFDlnFIlnT,lnRlnKlnFDlnFIlnT10%,lnRlnKlnFDlnFIlnTI(1)1t10%lnR-0191834-21635542I(1)lnR-31266735-21635542I(0)lnK-01094782-21660551I(1)lnK-21763459-21666593I(0)lnFD-21908066-21642242I(1)lnFD-31919351-21646119I(0)LnFI-2102576-21650413I(1)lnFI-31572228-21650413I(0)lnT01296033-21646119I(1)lnT-51077195-21650413I(0)51(2008),,,80%,,(),lnRlnKlnFDlnFIlnT,(lnR)(lnKlnFDlnFIlnT)EG,:lnR=311311+0130013lnK+0114733lnFD+0108273lnFI-0104733lnT(6)(719423)(219965)(111274)(019607)(-014167)R2=01965144F=11716805D.W=01648004t,(7):lnY=31371406+012142643lnK+012679533lnFD(7)(1112788)(3128293)(3166393)R2=01963503F=26319981D.W=01585870(6)(7)U1U2,2U1U25%,,lnKlnFDlnFIlnTlnRlnKlnFDlnR,,2Ut5%PU1-31198841-31020686010352U2-31335855-31029970010275(6),,,:1.1%,013001%,,,,,,2.,,,,()3.,,2154%(2007),4.,,,,,1,,()(VECM),lnR,resid(-1)6120102lnKlnFDlnFIlnT(=1),:lnR=010055+01079lnK-010724lnFD-010036lnFI-01005lnT+018794lnR(-1)-013686resid(-1)(8)(011598)(016831)(-018340)(-010833)(-010527)(318150)(-210795)R2=01567211F=21839618D.W=21528390,,,,-013686,2171,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,;,,,:1.,,,2.,,;,,,3.,,;,,;,71;,4.,,,,,:[1].[J].,2001,(7).[2]XizoboZhang,ShenggenFan.Howproductiveisinfrastructure?AnewapproachandevidencefromruralIndia[J].AmericanAgriculturalEconomicsAssociation,2004,Vol.3,pp.66-76.[3].[J].,2006,(7).[4],,.[J].,2008,(6).[5],.[J].,2005,(9).[6],.[J].,2007,(3).[7].[J].,2008,(7).[8],.[J].,2004,(9).[9],.[J].,2003,(12).[10],,.[J].,2005,(9).ResearchonFactorsInfluencingFarmerspAgriculturalIncomeYANGChun2ling,ZHOUXiao2xiao(SchoolofPublicandAdministration,ZhejiangUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,Hangzhou310018,China)Abstract:Thepapercointegratestestsandconstructserrorcorrectionmodeltotestrelationshipamongagricultureinfrastructuralinvestment,agriculturalloan,agriculturalinsurance,agriculturaltechnologyandfarmerspagriculturalincomebasedonrelativedatafrom1985to2007inChina.Accordingtothefindings,thepaperconcludesagriculturalinfrastructuralinvestmentisakeyfactorandplaysamoreimportantroleinboostingfarmerspincomethanfactorsofagriculturalloanandagriculturalinsurance.Agriculturaltechnologyinput,however,hinderstheprocessoffarmersptoobtainmorewealth.Finally,thepaperhasforwardedsomesuggestionstogovernmentpolicyofincreasingfarmerspincome.Keywords:farmerspagriculturalincome;factorsinfluencingagricultureinfrastructuralinvestment(:)8120102