01投资时钟

中国A股投资品行业季度时钟探讨23456789时间经济周期申万300季度涨跌幅M2-GDPGDP(%)CPI(%)3Q07overheat48.6%5.113.46.24Q06overheat44.3%5.311.62.81Q09reflation42.5%19.46.1(1.2)1Q07overheat35.8%4.313.03.32Q07overheat35.0%3.713.44.42Q06overheat30.8%6.412.01.52Q09recover28.7%21.47.1(1.7)1Q04overheat16.8%8.710.43.01Q06recover14.1%7.411.40.81Q03overheat10.6%7.710.80.92Q02recover7.1%5.88.9(0.8)4Q03overheat5.7%9.610.03.23Q05reflation3.1%7.510.40.93Q04stagnation2.9%3.410.55.23Q06overheat1.0%5.011.81.54Q05recover0.4%7.210.41.6资料来源：申万研究、WIND10经济周期季度数（个）申万300指数上涨的季度数（个）申万300指数上涨上涨概率recover5480.0%overheat14964.3%stagnation3133.3%reflation8225.0%资料来源：申万研究、WIND11资料来源：申万研究、WIND-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%1Q022Q023Q024Q021Q032Q033Q034Q031Q042Q043Q044Q041Q052Q053Q054Q051Q062Q063Q064Q061Q072Q073Q074Q071Q082Q083Q084Q081Q092Q09-3-2-10123申万300修订经济周期实际经济周期1213时间经济周期申万采掘超额收益经济周期描述煤炭开采和洗选业ROE1Q02recover1.3%复苏初期1.1%2Q02recover-4.5%1.3%3Q02overheat-0.6%1.2%4Q02overheat-3.6%1.2%1Q03overheat-0.6%1.1%2Q03overheat-1.1%1.6%3Q03overheat-0.6%1.5%4Q03overheat19.6%2.0%1Q04overheat-0.4%2.0%2Q04overheat3.4%3.1%3Q04stagnation5.8%滞胀3.1%4Q04reflation7.7%衰退初期3.5%1Q05reflation-0.2%3.9%2Q05reflation-7.6%4.8%3Q05reflation3.0%衰退后期4.6%4Q05recover5.2%复苏初期4.9%1Q06recover9.1%复苏初期3.3%2Q06overheat-9.0%4.7%3Q06overheat-15.4%4.5%4Q06overheat-20.0%5.2%1Q07overheat4.0%2.1%2Q07overheat26.0%5.0%3Q07overheat66.2%5.3%4Q07stagnation-20.3%6.3%1Q08stagnation0.0%滞胀3.2%2Q08reflation21.8%衰退初期8.1%3Q08reflation-14.5%11.3%4Q08reflation-8.5%8.5%1Q09reflation9.2%衰退后期2.6%2Q09recover25.7%复苏初期5.8%过热中后期过热中后期资料来源：申万研究、WIND1415时间经济周期申万有色金属超额收益经济周期描述有色金属ROE1Q02recover-0.6%0.4%2Q02recover-2.8%1.4%3Q02overheat-0.3%1.4%4Q02overheat-2.9%2.2%1Q03overheat-1.5%1.8%2Q03overheat-3.4%3.0%3Q03overheat-2.2%2.7%4Q03overheat10.9%3.5%1Q04overheat3.4%3.9%2Q04overheat-4.1%4.7%3Q04stagnation1.0%3.6%4Q04reflation-3.6%4.6%1Q05reflation-0.4%4.0%2Q05reflation-7.2%5.5%3Q05reflation7.9%衰退后期4.3%4Q05recover2.1%复苏初期5.6%1Q06recover28.6%复苏初期6.3%2Q06overheat13.9%8.5%3Q06overheat-4.5%7.2%4Q06overheat-21.8%8.4%1Q07overheat26.6%3.9%2Q07overheat7.6%7.3%3Q07overheat43.7%7.2%4Q07stagnation-14.1%7.1%1Q08stagnation-4.9%2.6%2Q08reflation-12.4%5.8%3Q08reflation-11.7%4.1%4Q08reflation-1.3%0.1%1Q09reflation52.2%衰退后期-0.3%2Q09recover-4.7%2.1%过热中后期过热中后期资料来源：申万研究、WIND1617时间经济周期申万黑色金属超额收益经济周期描述黑色金属ROE1Q02recover2.0%复苏期0.9%2Q02recover2.0%复苏期1.9%3Q02overheat-1.0%2.0%4Q02overheat0.2%过热中期2.3%1Q03overheat3.3%过热中期2.5%2Q03overheat5.6%过热中期3.3%3Q03overheat-0.9%3.6%4Q03overheat18.5%过热中期3.2%1Q04overheat-1.4%5.0%2Q04overheat-0.1%3.7%3Q04stagnation7.2%滞胀4.0%4Q04reflation2.4%衰退初期5.6%1Q05reflation4.6%衰退初期5.0%2Q05reflation-4.6%4.7%3Q05reflation-3.7%2.9%4Q05recover-3.4%2.3%1Q06recover-0.9%1.6%2Q06overheat-6.7%5.1%3Q06overheat-7.5%4.8%4Q06overheat17.1%过热中期4.8%1Q07overheat9.9%过热中期2.6%2Q07overheat-11.2%5.6%3Q07overheat12.8%过热后期4.7%4Q07stagnation-1.2%4.4%1Q08stagnation-0.5%2.3%2Q08reflation-7.5%5.9%3Q08reflation-0.8%5.2%4Q08reflation-7.7%-1.2%1Q09reflation-9.3%-0.1%2Q09recover0.5%复苏期0.3%资料来源：申万研究、WIND1819时间经济周期申万化工超额收益经济周期描述基础化学原料ROE1Q02recover-1.4%0.2%2Q02recover-0.6%1.3%3Q02overheat1.1%过热初期1.3%4Q02overheat-2.9%1.9%1Q03overheat0.2%过热中期1.4%2Q03overheat-4.6%2.0%3Q03overheat-2.5%1.7%4Q03overheat-0.2%2.6%1Q04overheat5.9%过热后期2.3%2Q04overheat1.8%过热后期3.0%3Q04stagnation-1.1%3.8%4Q04reflation-1.7%3.8%1Q05reflation-1.1%2.9%2Q05reflation-6.5%2.6%3Q05reflation5.7%衰退后期2.1%4Q05recover1.9%复苏期1.4%1Q06recover0.3%复苏期1.7%2Q06overheat2.8%过热初期3.0%3Q06overheat2.2%过热中期2.3%4Q06overheat-24.2%4.3%1Q07overheat20.4%过热中期2.5%2Q07overheat-10.8%4.6%3Q07overheat-6.8%3.8%4Q07stagnation8.1%滞胀4.8%1Q08stagnation3.7%滞胀1.7%2Q08reflation3.5%衰退初期4.2%3Q08reflation-1.8%3.5%4Q08reflation-4.7%-1.2%1Q09reflation0.9%衰退后期0.1%2Q09recover-15.4%2.1%资料来源：申万研究、WIND2021时间经济周期申万建筑材料经济周期描述3111水泥制造1Q02recover2.2%复苏期-0.5%2Q02recover1.3%复苏期1.4%3Q02overheat-0.3%1.6%4Q02overheat-3.3%2.3%1Q03overheat-0.4%-0.1%2Q03overheat-6.5%1.9%3Q03overheat-0.5%2.3%4Q03overheat-3.9%5.5%1Q04overheat5.1%过热中后期2.4%2Q04overheat0.0%3.6%3Q04stagnation-11.5%2.0%4Q04reflation-5.8%2.3%1Q05reflation-4.3%-0.2%2Q05reflation-11.9%1.5%3Q05reflation5.3%衰退后期1.2%4Q05recover-1.9%3.0%1Q06recover1.1%复苏期0.4%2Q06overheat4.1%过热初期2.5%3Q06overheat0.0%2.4%4Q06overheat-9.7%3.9%1Q07overheat22.6%过热中后期0.5%2Q07overheat7.8%过热中后期2.6%3Q07overheat-10.3%3.8%4Q07stagnation-1.7%4.2%1Q08stagnation2.5%滞胀0.6%2Q08reflation-5.2%3.4%3Q08reflation-8.8%4.4%4Q08reflation22.5%衰退后期3.4%1Q09reflation20.9%衰退后期0.5%2Q09recover-14.2%3.7%资料来源：申万研究、WIND2223煤炭超额收益有色超额收益钢铁超额收益化工超额收益水泥超额收益复苏▲▲▲过热初期▲过热中期▲▲▲▲▲过热后期▲▲▲▲滞胀▲衰退初期▲衰退后期▲▲▲▲资料来源：申万研究2425262728-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%1Q022Q023Q024Q021Q032Q033Q034Q031Q042Q043Q044Q041Q052Q053Q054Q051Q062Q063Q064Q061Q072Q073Q074Q071Q082Q083Q084Q081Q092Q09煤炭化学原料钢铁有色水泥资料来源：申万研究、国家统计局、WIND2930313233：投资品研究部副总监，化工行业首席分析师。本人具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格或相当的专业胜任能力，以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的研究观点。本人不曾因，不因，也将不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接收到任何形式的补偿。本公司在知晓范围内履行披露义务。客户可索取有关披露资料。34本报告仅供上海申万研究有限公司（以下简称本公司）的客户使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。本报告是基于本公司认为可靠的已公开信息，但本公司不保证该等信息的准确性或完整性。本报告所载的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之