Chapter14IndustryAnalysis(投资分析与投资组合管理)

LecturePresentationSoftwaretoaccompanyInvestmentAnalysisandPortfolioManagementSeventhEditionbyFrankK.Reilly&KeithC.BrownChapter14Chapter14IndustryAnalysisQuestionstobeanswered:•Isthereadifferencebetweenthereturnsforalternativeindustriesduringspecifictimeperiods?Whatistheimplicationoftheseresults?•Isthereconsistencyinthereturnsforindividualindustriesovertime?Whatdotheseresultsimplyregardingindustryanalysis?Chapter14IndustryAnalysis•Istheperformanceforfirmswithinanindustryconsistent?Whatistheimplicationoftheseresultsforindustryandcompanyanalysis?•Isthereadifferenceinriskamongindustries?Whataretheimplicationsoftheseresultsforindustryanalysis?Chapter14IndustryAnalysis•Whathappenstoriskforindividualindustriesovertime?Whatdoesthisimplyforindustryanalysis?•Whataretwovariablesthatneedtobeestimatedwhetheryouusecashflowmodelsorrelativevaluationratios?Chapter14IndustryAnalysis•Giventhepresentvalueofcashflowvaluationtechniques,howdoesananalystdeterminethevalueofanindustryusingtheDDMandassumingconstantgrowthortwostagegrowth?•Howdoesananalystdeterminethevalueofanindustryusingthefreecashflowtoequity(FCFE)modelwithconstantgrowthortwostagegrowth?Chapter14IndustryAnalysis•Whatarethestepsinvolvedinestimatingearningspershareforanindustry?•Whatarethestagesintheindustriallifecycleandhowdoesthelifecyclestageaffectthesalesestimateforanindustry?•Whatarethefivebasiccompetitiveforcesthatdeterminetheintensityofcompetitioninanindustryandthus,itsrateofreturnoncapital?Chapter14IndustryAnalysis•Howdoestheestimatingprocedurefortheoperatingprofitdifferfortheaggregatemarketversusanindustry?•Whatarethetwoalternativeproceduresforestimatinganindustryearningsmultiplier?Chapter14IndustryAnalysis•Whatisinvolvedinamacroanalysisoftheindustryearningsmultiplier?•Whatarethestepsinthemicroanalysisofanindustryearningsmultiplier?•Afteryouestimateanindustryearningsmultiplier,howdoyoudetermineiftheindustry’smultiplierisrelativelyhighorlow?Chapter14IndustryAnalysis•Howdoindustriesdifferintermsofwhatdictatestheirreturnonassets?•Whataresomeoftheuniquefactorsthatmustbeconsideredinglobalindustryanalysis?WhyDoIndustryAnalysis?•Helpfindprofitableinvestmentopportunities•Partofthethree-step,top-downplanforvaluingindividualcompaniesandselectingstocksforaportfolioWhatDoWeLearnFromIndustryAnalysis?•Isthereadifferencebetweenthereturnsforalternativeindustriesduringspecifictimeperiods?•Willanindustrythatperformswellinoneperiodcontinuetoperformwellinthefuture?Thatis,canweusepastrelationshipsbetweenthemarketandanindividualindustrytopredictfuturetrendsfortheindustry?WhatDoWeLearnFromIndustryAnalysis?•Dofirmswithinanindustryshowconsistentperformanceovertime?WhatDoWeLearnFromIndustryAnalysis?•Dofirmswithinanindustryshowconsistentperformanceovertime?•Isthereadifferenceintheriskforalternativeindustries?WhatDoWeLearnFromIndustryAnalysis?•Dofirmswithinanindustryshowconsistentperformanceovertime?•Isthereadifferenceintheriskforalternativeindustries?•Doestheriskforindividualindustriesvaryordoesitremainrelativelyconstantovertime?IndustryPerformance•Widedispersioninratesofreturnindifferentindustries•Performancevariesfromyeartoyear•Companyperformancevarieswithinindustries•RisksvarywidelybyindustrybutarefairlystableovertimeTheBusinessCycleandIndustrySectors•Economictrendscananddoaffectindustryperformance•Byidentifyingandmonitoringkeyassumptionsandvariables,wecanmonitortheeconomyandgaugetheimplicationsofnewinformationonoureconomicoutlookandindustryanalysisTheBusinessCycleandIndustrySectors•CyclicalorStructuralChanges–Cyclicalchangesintheeconomyarisefromtheupsanddownsofthebusinesscycle–Structurechangesoccurwhentheeconomyundergoesamajorchangeinorganizationorhowitfunctions•RotationstrategyiswhenoneswitchesfromoneindustrygrouptoanotheroverthecourseofabusinesscycleTheBusinessCycleandIndustrySectors•EconomicVariablesandDifferentIndustries–Inflation–InterestRates–InternationalEconomics–ConsumerSentimentTheStockMarketandtheBusinessCycleExhibit14.2TheStockMarketandtheBusinessCycleExhibit14.2troughpeakTheStockMarketandtheBusinessCycleExhibit14.2FinancialStocksExceltroughpeakConsumerDurablesExcelCapitalGoodsExcelBasicIndustriesExcelConsumerStaplesExcelStructuralEconomicChangesandAlternativeIndustries•SocialInfluences–Demographics–Lifestyles•Technology•Politicsandregulations–Economicreasoning–Fairness–Regulatorychangesaffectnumerousindustries–RegulationsaffectinternationalcommerceEvaluatingtheIndustryLifeCycleFiveStageModel•Pioneeringdevelopment•Rapidlyacceleratingindustrygrowth•Matureindustrygrowth•Stabilizationandmarketmaturity•DecelerationofgrowthanddeclineAnalysisofIndustryCompetitionCompetitionandExpectedIndustryReturns–Porter’sconceptofcompetitivestrategyisdescribedasthesearchbyafirmforafavorablecompetitivepositioninanindustry–Tocreateaprofitablecompetitivestrategy,afirmmustfirstexaminethebasiccompetitivestructureofitsindustry–ThepotentialprofitabilityofafirmisheavilyinfluencedbytheprofitabilityofitsindustryCompetitiveStructureofanIndustry•Porter’sCompetitiveForces–Rivalryamongexistingcompetito