摩根士丹利-XXXX1006-全球金属图册：XXXX年四季度(聚焦于外汇、中国

MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHOctober6,2010GlobalMetalsandMiningTeamOurhighest-convictioncommodityexposuresareinbaseandpreciousmetalsintheshortterm.Weexpectbulkcommoditiestotradeinnarrowrangesclosetocurrentpricesoverthecomingquarter.Preferredcommodityexposuresbysector:•Basemetals–copper,nickelandtin•Preciousmetals–gold,silverandpalladium•Bulks–ironoreandthermalcoalHighest-convictionOverweightequities:•KobeSteel•USSteel•FortescueMetals•ImplatsLimited•TataSteel•Xstrata•POSCO•Kazakhmys•MechelGlobalMetalsPlaybook:4Q10Focusoncurrencies,ChinaandIndiaResearchGlobalAcceleratingweaknessintheUScurrency,drivenbyfearsofrenewedquantitativeeasing(QE)toconfrontsluggishUSgrowth,isprovingtobeaboontocommoditymarkets,especiallyasgrowthrisksfromfiscalpolicynormalisation,theEuropeansovereigndebtcrisis,policytighteninginChinaandhighunemploymentintheUSAandEuropepersist.Cyclicalgrowthisgoingthroughasoftpatchaftermoderatingfromunsustainablyhighlevelsin1H2010.However,netpositivegrowth,especiallyasChinaachievesasoftlanding,isstillsupportiveofrawmaterialdemand.Basemetalsoutlook:Afterasignificantcorrectionin3Q2010,weexpectresilientgrowthinemergingmarketstodeliverrenewedrelativeandabsoluteoutperformancein4Q2010and2011inthissector,especiallyinourfavouredmetals–copper,nickelandtin.Preciousmetalsoutlook:CurrencyconcernsrelatingtothepossibilityofrenewedQEandaprolongedperiodofnegativerealinterestratesintheUSarelikelytodrivestronginvestmentdemandforgoldandsilver.Autodemandrecoveryremainsapositivefortheplatinumgroupmetals(PGM).Bulkcommodityoutlook:Emergingmarketindustrialisationremainsakeylong-termdriverofdemandforsteel-makingrawmaterialsandthermalcoal,butcurrentpricesarechallengingforsteelmakersandthermalpowergenerators.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoNASD/NYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount2MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHOctober6,2010GlobalMetalsPlaybook,4Q10TableofcontentsExecutiveSummary4TopPicks6KeyChanges7EconomicandCommoditiesOutlook10BaseMetalsAluminium&Alumina21Copper25Nickel28Lead31Zinc34PreciousMetalsGold38Silver41Palladium44Platinum46Rhodium48Steel&BulkCommoditiesSteel52MetCoal55IronOre58MinedEnergyThermalCoal63Uranium65TopEquityIdeasKobeSteel69HarunobuGorohUSSteel70MarkLiinamaaFortescueMetals71CraigCampbellImplatsLimited72SimonKendallTataSteel73VipulPrasadXstrata74EphremRaviPOSCO75CharlesSpencerKazakhmys76EphremRaviMechel77DmitriyKolomystyn3MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHOctober6,2010GlobalMetalsPlaybook,4Q10GlobalCommoditiesTeam1MorganStanley&Co.Incorporated2MorganStanleyC.T.V.M.S.A.3MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc4MorganStanleyIndiaCompanyPrivateLimited5MorganStanleyAsiaLimited6MorganStanleyAustraliaLtd7MorganStanleyMUFGSecurities8MorganStanleyTaiwanLtd9OOOMorganStanleyBank10RMBMorganStanley(Proprietary)Ltd+Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoNASD/NYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.GlobalMetals&Mining(Australia)LatinAmericaSteel,Metals&Mining,Pulp&Paper(NewYork/SãoPaulo/Mexico)PeterRichardson6+61392568934CarlosdeAlba112127614927JoelCrane6+61392568961BrunoMontanari2+551130486225EMEAMetals&Mining,Steel(London)Non-JapanAsiaMetals&Mining(Singapore/Seoul/HongKong)EphremRavi3+44(0)2074252127CharlesSpencer(teamleader)5+6568346825CarstenRiek3+44(0)2074253075HyunjaeLee(Seoulcoverage)3+8223994850MarkusAlmerud3+44(0)2074259870SandyNiu(Chinacoverage)5+85222391520AlainGabriel3+44(0)2074258959MeanPhilChong5+6568346194HannahKirby3+44(0)2074256014JohnLam5+85228485412EMEAMetals&Mining,Steel(Moscow)AsiaOil&GasCoal(HongKong)DmitriyKolomytsyn9+7(495)2872309Wee-KiatTan5+85228487488TimurSalikhov9+7(495)2872118SaraChan5+85228485292JoshDu5+85222397593EMEAMetals&Mining,Steel(Johannesburg)SimonG.Kendall10+27112824932JapanMetals&Mining,Steel(Tokyo)LeighBregman10+27112828969HarunobuGoroh7+81354245343AkiraMorimoto7+81364228650AustraliaMetals&Mining,Steel(Melbourne/Sydney)LeighaMiyata7+81364228671CraigCampbell6+61392568936LiLuo5+862123260032CameronJudd6+61392568904SarahLester6+61392568436GlobalCommodities(NewYork)HusseinAllidina112127614150IndiaMetals&Mining,Steel(Mumbai)ChristopherCorda112127616005VipulPrasad4+912222097807TaiLiu112127613585KetakiKulkarni4+912222097925NorthAmericaMetals&Mining,Steel(NewYork)MarkLiinamaa112127613537EvanL.Kurtz112127617583ParetoshMisra112127613590WesSconce1121276160044MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHOctober6,2010GlobalMetalsPlaybo