中国投资市场报告（PDF49页）

1CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESS2018中国投资市场报告世邦魏理仕研究部2CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESS3CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESS4CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESSJiang’anZhabei5CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESSPartICITYISBORDERLESS---Humanandeconomicactivitieshavenoadministrativeboundaries.Citiesareconnected.6CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESS1980–2018:FROMCITIESTOCITYCLUSTERS1980’s2017PilotCitiesofChina’sReformandOpeningUp(1979-1984)China’sCityClustersinNightEarthbyNASASource:NASA,CBREResearch,Q220187CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESSWHYCITYCLUSTERS,NOTCITIES?ATaleofTwoCities:Wuhan&SuzhouWUHANSUZHOU20178,594sq.km.1.35tnRMB54.1%10.89mn237km3.7mnsq.m.1.69mnsq.m.8,488sq.km.1.7tnRMB51.2%10.68mn138km2.5mnsq.m.4.08mnsq.m.LandAreaGDPRatiooftertiaryindustryPermanentpopulationLengthofsubwayinoperationTotalstockofofficesTotalstockofwarehousesSource:Localstatisticsbureaus,CBREResearch,Q220188CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESSTHERISEOFCENTRALANDWESTERNCLUSTERSAnhuiChang-Zhu-TanWuhanChengdu-ChongqingFujianHenanBoyangLakeCentralYunanShannxiCentralGuangxiHuhhot-Baotou-ErdosShandongPeninsulaJing-Jin-JiYRDCentralWestLiaoningHa-Da-QiCentralJilinBeibuGulfGreatBayAreaCentralShanxiStable(Integrationstage)NotabledecreaseStable(Polarizationstage)NotableincreaseTotalLeasedAreaofCommercialProperties:Central&WestChinaas%ofNationwide0%10%20%30%40%2008200920102011201220132014201520162017OfficeRetailLogistic%asofChina’sGDPSource:CBREResearch,Q220189CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESSFromPolarizationtoIntegration:HowtheGrowthPolesEvolveinTheCityClustersAROADMAPOFCITYCLUSTERS:FROMPOLARIZATIONTOINTEGRATIONJing-Jin-JiYantzeRiverDeltaAnhuiWuhanChang-Zhu-TanChengdu-Chongqing200820132017GreatBayAreaPolarization-dominantIntegration-dominant0%10%20%30%40%武汉长沙合肥重庆成都北京天津广州深圳上海南京杭州PolarizationSlowintegrationSecondarygrowthpoleemergesIntegration&repolarizationBeijingShanghaiShenzhenGuangzhouHangzhouNanjingTianjinChangshaWuhanHefeiChengduChongqingGrowth-poleGDPas%ofClusterGDPSource:WIND,CBREResearch,Q2201810CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESSRE-POLARIZATIONDRIVENBYNEWECONOMYAddedValueofITandScientificResearchas%OfGDPTop5citiesinaddedvalueofITandscientificresearch0%5%10%15%20%20122016BeijingShanghaiShenzhenGuangzhouHangzhouNanjingSuzhouTianjinNingboQingdaoWuxiWuhanDalianChengduShenyangChongqingSource:WIND,CBREResearch,Q2201811CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESSCITYISBORDERLESSRealEstateInvestmentOpportunityinGreatBayArea12CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESS“9+2”GBACITYCLUSTER:MASTERPLANNINGANDCITYPOSITIONINGHuboftransportationandtechnology&innovationAdvancedmanufacturinghubHubofcommercializationofR&DoutputsInternationalfinance,trade,lawservice,scientificinnovationandshippingcentreTravelandleisurecentreGUANGZHOUHUIZHOUSHENZHENHONGKONGMACAUZHUHAIAdvancedmanufacturingandregionaltransportationhubThegatewaycityinWestGBAAdvancedmanufacturinghubandhigh-qualityforestcityDemonstrationareaofinnovativedevelopmentThegatewaytoSouthwestChinaJIANGMENZHONGSHANFOSHANZHAOQINGHuboftransportation,technology&innovationandinternationalexchangeDONGGUANSource:CBREResearch,Q2201813CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESSFASTERGROWTHOFPOPULATIONOFGBATOBENEFITSHENZHEN&GUANGZHOUMOSTTargetedPopulationGrowth2018-2020CAGR3%CAGR1.5%-3%CAGR1.5%3million3-5million10million5-10millionTargetedPopulationin2020CAGRGBA75million2.9%Jing-Jin-Ji123million2.1%YRD121million2.2%ONGOINGURBANINTEGRATIONZhuhaiJiangmenMacauHongKongZhongshanZhaoqingFoshanGuangzhouShenzhenHuizhouDongguanSizeofPopulationSource:CBREResearch,Q2201814CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESSREALESTATEOPPORTUNITIESBROUGHTBYINFRASTRUCTUREANDINDUSTRYSHIFTRatioofTertiaryIndustryRealEstateInvestmentOpportunitiesZhuhaiJiangmenMacauHongKongZhongshanZhaoqingGuangzhouDongguanShenzhenHuizhou43ToMaoming51Foshan2CuihengNewDistrict(MaAnIsland),ZhongshanHeshan,JiangmenHongwanPort,ZhuhaiNansha,GuangzhouEmergingofficesubmarketsNewlogisticsubmarkets21435BinhaiBayNewCity,DongguanRegionalbusinesshubsHongKong,Guangzhou,ShenzhenInfrastructureinvestmentintensityRMB/sq.km.GBA*YRDJing-Jin-Ji6,910,0003,020,0001,450,000Below50%7,49380%andabove50%-80%Source:CBREResearch,Q22018*Guangdongprovince15CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESSGUANGZHOU-FOSHANMETRONETWORK:ASAMPLEOFURBANINTEGRATION0%10%20%30%04,0008,00012,0002013201420152016201710,000年客运量每单位里程承运人数增长PassengerTrafficofGuangzhou-FoshanMetroLineGuangzhou-FoshanMetroNetworkPassengerTrafficbySource(2017)128%23%49%广州市内乘客佛山市内乘客广佛城际间乘客AnnualPassengerTrafficY-o-YGrowth,AnnualPassengerTrafficpersq.kmIntra-cityofGuangzhouIntra-cityofFoshanInter-citybetweenGuangzhouandFoshanSource:GuangfoMetro,CBREResearch,Q2201816CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESSTHESHENZHEN&DONGGUANEXAMPLE:INTEGRATIONANDTALENTMOBILITYHuizhouGuangzhouDongguanShenzhenShenzhen,Dongguan,HuizhouMetroNetworkDuring2010-2015886enterprisesmovedorexpandedfromShenzhentoDongguanDongguanShenzhen143,000150,000JobSeekers2015-2016Source:DongguanHRDevelopmentInstituteandDongguanHRLeadingGroupOffice,CBREResearch,Q2201817CBRE|RESEARCH|BORDERLESSGBACOMMERCIALPROPERTYMARKETOUTLOOKWITHAGLOBALVIEWSanFranciscoNewYorkTokyoGBANewYorkBayArea70,17026,2003,960SanFranciscoBayArea20,26012,010720TokyoBayArea52,79014,3208,530GreaterBayArea31,7