安永-全球XXXX年私募股权投资观察报告

2010globalprivateequitywatchNewhorizonsemergeApril2010NewhorizonsemergeLeveragedloansusedtonancenewacquisitionsbouncedbackinthefourthquarter.WhileThomsonReutersreportsthatnewissuesintheUStotaledUS$80billionin2009,nearlyhalfofthattotal—US$37billion—wasissuedinthefourthquarter,upfromjustUS$14billioninthethirdquarterandUS$21billioninthefourthquarterof2008.Financingfornewacquisitionsshouldincreasegraduallyin2010,barringmajorbanksbeinghitwithdefaultsongovernmentandcommercialdebtinGreeceand,possibly,Spain.Liquidityalsoreturnedonthesellside.Therecoveryofworldwidestockmarketsrestoredtheinitialpublicoffering(IPO)asaviableexitstrategyintheUSandAsia.PEsponsorsbrought53newcompaniestomarketin2009,raisingproceedsofUS$16billion,comparedwithUS$11billionin2008.OnlythreeoftheseIPOsoccurredinEurope,while25tookplaceinboththeAmericasandintheAsia-Pacicregion.WhiletradesalesfellsharplylastyeartoUS$65billionfromUS$140billion,theyhaveincreasedsteadilysincebottomingoutintherstquarterof2009,asbid-askspreadsbetweenbuyersandsellersnarrowed.PErmscontinuedtofocusonpreservingportfoliocompanyvalueasoperatingexcellencereplacednancialengineering.Overthelastfewyears,largerrmshaveconcentratedonhiringoperatingpartnersandmanagerstofocusonimprovingtheirportfoliocompanies.TheyhavealsotappedformerexecutivesofglobalFortune500andothermultinationalcompanies,alongwithacoterieofex-managementconsultantstoserveassenioradvisers.Theseexecutives,whohaveyearsofstrategicandoperatingexperience,havebeeninvaluableinhelpingstrugglingcompaniesstreamlineoperations,improvetheirworkingcapital,easetheirnancialsituationandpositionthemselvesforgrowth.Ayearago,thereweredivergingviewsonthefutureofprivateequity(PE).Somecontendedthemodelhadsufferedirreparabledamage,whileotherssawanimbleindustrythatwouldrecoverandeventuallybecomestrongerthanever.Although2009wasachallengingyear,withleverageinshortsupply,acquisitionsanddivestituresdownsharply,andfund-raisingdifcult,theindustryshowedresilienceinadaptingtoadversemarketconditions.Globally,PErmsmade1,612acquisitions1in2009,a36%decreasefrom2008.2Theaveragesizeofanacquisitionin2009wassmaller—US$100millionversusUS$158millionin2008—astotaldealvaluefell56%toUS$95.5billion.Whiletherewerefewerbuyoutdealsduring2009,minorityinvestments3asapercentageoftotalacquisitionsrosefrom45%to50%,evenasthevalueofsuchtransactionsfellfromUS$57.7billiontoUS$21.9billion.However,annualdatamasktherealstoryof2009.Thelongretreatthatbeganinthesummerof2007endedasacomebackthatbeganinthethirdquarterandgainedstrengthaslargerdealswereannouncedtowardsyear-end.Globally,transactionsworthUS$39billionwereannouncedinthefourthquarter,upfromUS$24billioninthethirdquarter,andmorethandoubletheUS$18billionannouncedinthefourthquarterof2008.Drivingthisrecoveryistherenewedwillingnessofbankstounderwritedebt.Bloombergreportedthatglobalhigh-yielddebtissuancenearlytripledlastyeartoUS$210billion,fromUS$74billionin2008.PErms,particularlythoseintheUnitedStates(US),usedtheirshareofnewissuestoreplaceexistingportfoliocompanydebt,gainingcriticaldebtextensionsintheprocess.Theuseofnewlyissuedhigh-yieldbondstorenanceleveragedloansisexpectedtocontinuethrough2010asinterestratesongovernmentbondsareexpectedtoremainlow,causinginvestorstoseekhigheryields.1.956acquisitionswherethevaluewasdisclosed,and656wherethevaluewasnotdisclosed.2.Unlessotherwisenoted,Dealogicisthesourceofallacquisition,divestitureandIPOdatacitedinthisreport.3.Acquisitionsoflessthana50%ownershipstake.Inearly2010,valuationsareimproving,IPOsareencounteringsomeresistance,leverageisreturninginsomemarkets,andsomehigh-prolesecondarysaleshavebeencompleted.Firmsaretakingadvantageofimprovingmarketstomakeacquisitions,enhanceportfoliocompanyperformance,andexitinvestmentsinordertoreturnfundstolimitedpartnersinadvanceof2011fund-raisingrounds.Allthewhiletheykeepawatchfuleyeontighteningdebtcovenants.Duringtherstthreemonthsof2010,globalPErmshaveannounced358transactionsvaluedatUS$27.0billion,comparedwith415transactionspricedatUS$17.0billionforthesameperiodin2009.Whiletheaveragedealsize,wherethevaluewasdisclosed,forthosethreemonthsrosetoUS$157millionfromUS$70millionlastyear,itremainsfarbelowthepre-recessionhighofUS$706millioninthesecondquarterof2007.2010islookingtobeanintriguingyearwithglobalPEactivityontherise.Kindregards,JohnHarleyGlobalPrivateEquityLeaderErnst&YoungFund-raisingwillcontinuetobeachallengeforthenext12to18months.WithPreqinreportingthatPErmshadUS$500billioninuncommittedcapitalwaitingtobedeployedattheendof2009,oneofthebiggestchallengesmaybendingqualitytargets.Thatsaid,rmsclosedUS$234.9billionworthoffunds,60%lessthanin2008.4Aslimitedpartnerscontinuetodemandbetterreturnsandmoretransparency,competitionamonggeneralpartnerswillheatup,evenasinvestors—whosatonthesidelineslastyear—preparetocommitmorecapital,accordingtoarecentPreqinstudy.Mid-sizedbuyout,distresseddebt,secondary,andemergingmarketfundsfocusedonChina,IndiaandBrazilmaygarnerincreasedinterest.While2010shouldbeabetteryearthan2009onallfronts,regulatoryreformisamajorunc