对外直接投资的决定因素_中国的经验研究

::,,?,:GDP;:,,,2008418.6;2008,2008924,20081:0.45,,,,,,,:;;;,,,,,,,,(,2001;,1998),IDP(,2007;,2006;,2005;,2004)FDI,,Liu,X.H.(2005)1979-2002,GDP,GDP;,Braunerhjelm,P.(2005):(verticalproduc2tionstructure),;(horizon2talproductionstructure),,Hejazi,W.Pauly,P.(2003)FDI:FDI,31Belderbos,R.(1992)Steven&Lipsey(1992),FDIFeldstein(1995),:Kyrkilis,D.Pantelidis,P.(2003)GNP:GNPAndreff,W.(2002)Andref,W.,:FDI;FDI,(2005),(Haq,2001;Zhang,2000;Love&Lagehidaigo,1999;Cooke&Noble,1999;Casson,1999)FDIFDI(2007),FDI(2007)GDPFDI,FDI(2007),FDI,:FDI(2005)GDP:FDIGDP,FDI,FDI,:(2007)55GDPGDP,:(2001),GDP,,,,,,,:,(GDP),,:H1:GDP,,,,,,:H2:Braunerhjelm,P.(2005):41Hejazi,W.&Pauly,P.(2003):,;,,,,:H3:Mundell(1957),,,:,,Markuson(1983)Svenson(1984)Mun2dell,,,,:H41:;H42:Aliber(1970),K=C/I,K,C,IAliber,,,,,(,2005),,,,,,,:H5:,:OFDI=f(PGDP,IFDI,GFCF,EX,ER)(3.1):OFDI;PGDPGDP;IFDI;GFCF;EX;ER:(1982-2008)(OFDI)IMF(BalanceofPaymentsStatistics);GDP(PPP)(1982-2008)(PGDP)(1982-2008)(IFDI)(1982-2008)(GFCF)(1982-2008)(EX);(1982-2008)(ER)IMF,GDP1982(Liu,2005),(),:1%ADF,:(3-1),,Johansen(1988)(3-2):3-1ADFADF(c,t,k)1%5%10%D(OFDI,2)-6.605805(c,t,1)-4.416345-3.622033-3.248592D(PGDP,2)-5.265537(c,t,1)-4.416345-3.622033-3.248592D(IFDI,2)-4.260074(c,0,2)-3.752946-2.998064-2.638752D(GFCF,2)-6.563944(c,t,1)-4.416345-3.622033-3.248592D(EX,2)-6.821890(c,t,1)-4.416345-3.622033-3.248592(ER,2)-5.820964(c,t,1)-4.416345-3.622033-3.248592:(c,t,k);D(OFDI,512)3-2JohansenUnrestrictedCointegrationRankTest(Trace)HypothesizedTrace0.05No.ofCE(s)EigenvalueStatisticCriticalValueProb.33None30.933264165.806395.753660.0000Atmost130.79823698.1308269.818890.0001Atmost230.64872058.1144647.856130.0041Atmost330.54633431.9601629.797070.0277Atmost40.36444012.2003015.494710.1476Atmost50.0341660.8690793.8414660.3512Tracetestindicates4cointegratingeqn(s)atthe0.05level3denotesrejectionofthehypothesisatthe0.05level33MacKinnon2Haug2Michelis(1999)p2valuesUnrestrictedCointegrationRankTest(MaximumEigenvalue)HypothesizedMax2Eigen0.05No.ofCE(s)EigenvalueStatisticCriticalValueProb.33None30.93326467.6754440.077570.0000Atmost130.79823640.0163633.876870.0082Atmost20.64872026.1543027.584340.0753Atmost30.54633419.7598621.131620.0769Atmost40.36444011.3312214.264600.1384Atmost50.0341660.8690793.8414660.3512Max2eigenvaluetestindicates2cointegratingeqn(s)atthe0.05level3denotesrejectionofthehypothesisatthe0.05level33MacKinnon2Haug2Michelis(1999)p2values,,(3-3):3-3VariableCoefficientStd.Errort2StatisticProb.C-5.8699333.139920-1.8694530.0749IFDI1.5406610.3333164.6222230.0001ER-0.5482760.135285-4.0527590.0005PGDP2.0721281.1639801.7802080.0889GFCF-0.9220960.767845-1.2008880.2426R2squared0.842582Meandependentvar6.642727AdjustedR2squared0.813961S.D.dependentvar1.197868S.E.ofregression0.516668Akaikeinfocriterion1.682742Sumsquaredresid5.872802Schwarzcriterion1.922712Loglikelihood-17.71702F2statistic29.43885Durbin2Watsonstat2.035626Prob(F2statistic)0.00000061,T,5%:,,FDI,,GDP,2.11.5-0.55:,1%GDP2.1%;,,1%1.5%;,-0.9,,,,T,,,:,,FDI0.84,0.81,,D-W2,1,1982-2008,FDI:,FDI(1)FDI,FDI,(2),FDI,,2,,:(1),(2),(3),,[1]Andreff,W..Thenewmultinationalcorporationsfromtransitioncountries[J].EconomicSystems,2002,26:371-379.[2]Braunerhjelm,P.,Oxelheim,L.&Thulin,P..Therelationshipbetweendomesticandoutwardfor2eigndirectinvestment:Theroleofindustry2specificeffects[J].InternationalBusinessReview,2005,14:677-694.[3]Desai,M.A.,Foley,C.F.&James,R.HinesJr..Foreigndirectinvestmentandthedomesticcapital71stock[Z].WorkingPaper,2005.[4]Dunning,J.H.,Hoesel,R.V.&Narula,R..ExplainingthenewwaveofoutwardFDIfromdevelo2pingcountries:ThecaseofTaiwanandKorea[Z].WorkingPaper,1997.[5]Hejazi,W.&Pauly,P..MotivationsforFDIanddomesticcapitalformation[J].JournalofInterna2tionalBusinessStudies,2003,34:282-289.[6]Kyrkilis,D.&Pantelidis,P..Macroeconomicdeterminantsofoutwardforeigndirectinvestment[J].InternationalJournalofSocialEconomics,2003,30(7):827-836.[7]Liu,X.H.,Buck,T.&Shu,C..Chineseeconomicdevelopment,thenextstage:outwardFDI?[J].InternationalBusinessReview,2005,14:97-115.[8],.[J].,2004,(1):55-61.[9],.[J].,2007,(2):59-65.[10].[J].,2007,(2):38-47.[11].:[J].,2002,(4):44-46.[12].[M].:,2001.[13].[M].:,2002.[14],.:[J].,2005,(2):72-77.[15].[J].,2001,(3):34-41.[16].[J].,2004,(3):72-75.[17].:[M].:,2005.[18],.[J].,2007,(2):36-40.[19],.FDI[J].,2007,(4):81-86.[20],,.:IDP[J].,2006,(8):76-81.[21],.[J].,2007,(3):55-62.[22].[Z].2005.81