私人投资管理

私人投資管理2009德意志銀行20091專欄：環球投資策略2009另類投資10股票市場111111國際債券市場1貨幣1地產市場1新興市場1關鍵因素編者的話2009120082009G7200920082009HelmutKaiser博士環球首席投資策略師20091環球投資策略HelmutKaiser博士2009衰退已是共識　下跌風險充斥市場deleveragingG320091-1.5%2009新興市場可望成為00年的增長動力20095.5%2009%4.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0200720082009%%%543210-1200720082009ThomsonReutersDatastream20081127ThomsonReutersDatastream200811214.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.5050100150200250300350400Datastream-801-807013-0111087817-8211907-913282420161284050100150200250300350400500817-8211801-807013-01117311-753907-9130871970環球投資策略20091G3通脹：加速回落2008112.1%3.2%20091%86420808284868890929496980002040608GIC20091.2%1932IMFWorldEconomicOutlook,200811%20091環球投資策略債券市場：政府債券仍是避風港113%121.5%0.5%企業債券：回報潛力誘人但時機難以掌握股票市場：吸引的估值與高漲的避險情緒互相角力76543210200120022003200420052006200720081.000.303.003.251614121086420848688909294969800020406083.181.403.863.35ThomsonReutersDatastream20081117ThomsonReutersDatastream20081121環球投資策略20091另類投資：「去杠杆化」仍是焦點貨幣市場對沖基金HelmutKaiser500%4811491011-20.653754510-14.25785848-20.76046121010-25.4-13.96912701111-36.1731175316-48.28018076-17.1817821116-27.19079138-19.301301118-36.820081121*20091另類投資商品KonradAigner博士2008915全球衰退沉重打擊商品價格92008612,00011800疲弱的需求主導著油價的短期前景12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000010203050607080485920081120另類投資商品2009111210工業金屬繼續受壓農產品價格受信貸危機波及1601401201008060402002008103199000204050603121086420-2-4-6-8-100111267.8110708-6.52KonradAigner博士1020091另類投資對沖基金EricJahn博士HedgeFundResearch2008310個別策略值得關注CTA10CTA20100-10-20-30-40-50EdhecCTAEdhecJPMorganCTAMSCI200811–20081031%12.14.5-17.0-38.6CTACTAEricJahn博士股票市場歐元區1120091HugoCapelCure2009宏觀經濟不確定性比公司業績更重要2009衰退還是蕭條？ABB2009前所未有的估值508%1954投資機遇2009210-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-833–4849–6465–8081–9697–081.25GlobalFinancialDataIncThomsonReutersDatastream20081118%HugoCapelCure120091股票市場美國200920091973-75200150047%200710500192919500198250019912Wilshire50008GDP14199009500196050020091209-2.2EcoWinFactSet20081124500-6-226-6.8-3.5-8-404500ISM3.03.04.50.0BenjaminA.PaceIIILawrenceV.AdamBenjaminA.PaceIIIandLawrenceV.Adam2009股票市場英國120091PeterBickley1086420-2-4-6-8-10ThomsonReutersDatastream20081120200620072008100%2006111720081119120091股票市場╱亞洲（日本除外）VIXPeterBickleyTilneyPrivateWealthManagementSoon-GekChew199820087.6%20095.5%20105.9%200920101.2%2.5%104%9.9%5,860GDP16%2009201020097.6%20%1.08131.830.86股票市場日本12009120093.02.82.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.82008102795979901030507MSCIAC0.86x1.04x1.08x-1sd+1sdmeanSoon-GekChewMarshallGittler2006647%32%35%13%21%24%20034Resona20072198295104%7.7%6.1%GDP120091國際債券市場37%509302520151050-5-10-15-202008102002200320042005200620072008%-1.7-14.5-17.210MarshallGittlerUweHoffmann博士1%貨幣1200913%200395%3%550BBB600500400300200100020–3960–7980–0099–0895–04BBB20081130UweHoffmannMatthiasPannhorst美元：歐元：日元：英鎊：8120091地產市場新興市場：20081120%-35-40-25-20-1001020-30-15-5515-31.0-26.0-25.6-23.3-22.7-17.4-15.0-14.2-9.013.39200891MatthiasPannhorstStefanMitropoulos博士InvestmentPropertyDatabankIPD198720081020%2008NCREIF5.3%地產股繼續下挫2008EPRANAREIT11新興市場12009145%52%10關注高質素和低杠杆的公司11010090807060504030ThomsonReutersDatastreamEPRAMSCI200811=1001020081119StefanMitropoulosElkeSpeidel-Walz博士G320095.5%債券市場：違約風險升高，貨幣波動不定2009宏觀經濟低迷020091新興市場24201612840-4-8200020012002200320042005200620072008GDP22.8**-7.05.3*-0.8***IMFWorldEconomicOutlook,October2008債券市場展望199020060510152025303540455025.142.323.239.617.428.012.033.07.016.3G3GDP新興市場120091「金磚四國」前景喜憂參半俄羅斯：66,000114,50020091002009201816141210864ThomsonReutersDatastream;I/B/E/S200811142003200420052006200720089.0MSCI7.1MSCI7590巴西：26%12中國：20091關鍵因素10%14%GDP13%7-8%印度：20097.5%股票市場：部分國家的估值、基本面狀況和長期的結構性轉變值得看好ElkeSpeidel-Walz*關鍵因素20091===MainzerLandstraße178–19060327Frankfurt©2008FSAFSAFSA193319331940EcoWinEdhecFactSetGlobalFinancialDataIncI/B/E/SIMFWorldEconomicOutlookThomsonReutersDatastreamMainzerLandstraße178–190,D-60327FrankfurtamMain,GermanySteffenMitschkaUrsulaMorbachWeigandDesignundKommunikationGmbH©200812