绝对成交==家具导购实战训练

[e-mail]:supplyandprojectuncertaintyNaturalGasInAsia:supplyandprojectuncertaintyJonathanP.SternRoyalInstituteofInternationalAffairs/ImperialCollege,LondonIEEJSeminar,September25,[e-mail]rwardCommonThemesLookingForwardCommonThemesLookingForwardzMostcountrieshaveprojectionsofhugedemandgrowthovernexttwodecades:250-300%z50-70%ofgasdemandgrowthisdependentuponpowergenerationzSupplytomeetdemandgrowthisdependentuponmulti-billiondollarprojects–pipelineandLNG-oftenfromgreenfieldlocationszViabilityofprojectsisuncertaindueto:cost/abilitytopay,deregulation/liberalisation,[e-mail]:ACountry-SpecificStoryofThreeDistinctNaturalGasRegionsAsia:ACountryAsia:ACountry--SpecificStoryofThreeSpecificStoryofThreeDistinctNaturalGasRegionsDistinctNaturalGasRegionszSOUTHEASTASIA–ASEAN:LNGexporterswithgrowingregionalpipelinelinkageszSOUTHASIA–India,Pakistan,Bangladesh:existinggasmarketsusingdomesticresourceswithnotradezNORTHEASTASIA:zChina–smallbutrapidlyincreasingdomesticgasmarket;LNGimports2005/6zJapan,Korea–substantialmarketsdependentonLNGzRussianFarEast–[e-mail]el1990-2020ASEANEnergyDemandByFuel1990-2020050100150200250300350400MTOE1990199520002005201020152020ELECTRICITYCOALNATURALGASOILSource:[e-mail]5001500250035004500550065001990199520002005201020152020Non-energyTransportRescomIndustry(Fuel)Source:ASCOPETAGPConceptualMasterPlan,[e-mail]rans-ASEANGasPipelineSouthEastAsianLNGandTransSouthEas[e-mail]:ASCOPETAGPConceptualMasterPlan,[e-mail]“Trans-ASEANGasPipeline”AnIntegratedAnIntegrated““TransTrans--ASEANGasPipelineASEANGasPipeline””INDONESIAPHILIPPINESTHAILANDLAOSCAMBODIAMYANMARExistingGasPipelineWorkinProgress/PlannedGasPipelineCross-BorderPipelinePlannedCross-BorderGasPipelineInterconnection7NewLikelyTAGPInterconnections1237564a-c4a-bMALAYSIABRUNEIDARUSSALAMSINGAPORESource:[e-mail]orMajorAsianMarkets-Bcm(%primaryenergydemand)GasDemandProjectionsforMajorAsianGasDemandProjectionsforMajorAsianMarketsMarkets--BcmBcm(%primaryenergydemand)(%primaryenergydemand)522-540376-385139TOTAL140(16)110(13)20(9)India200(10)120(6)27(2)China60(15)53(14)21(8)Korea122-140(20)93-102(14-15)71(13)Japan2020High2020Likely2000ActualSource:IanWybrew-BondandJonathanStern,NaturalGasInAsia,OIES/[e-mail]:CommercialandPoliticalProblemsIndia:CommercialandPoliticalProblemsIndia:CommercialandPoliticalProblemsCOMMERCIAL:zsubsidisedinternalgasandelectricitypricingisahugeobstacle–howfastcan/willreformprogress?zLNG-manyprojectsbutEnrondebacleandfragileStateElectricityCommissionsareobstaclesPOLITICAL(pipelineimports):zMiddleEastandCentralAsiansuppliesmustcomethroughPakistanzBangladesh(andMyanmar)[e-mail]@[e-mail]’sWest-EastPipelineandLNGProjectsChina’sWestChina’sWest--E[e-mail]’sWest-EastPipeline:twoviewsChina’sWestChina’sWest--EastPipeline:twoviewsEastPipeline:twoviewsCHINESEVIEW:zAmplereserves,viablemarketszAttractiveprojectforforeigninvestorszImportantregionaldevelopmentproject–China’s“DeveloptheWest”policyJONATHANSTERNVIEW:zInsufficientreservesinTarim(Ordos??)z12Bcm/yearproducesunitcostsof$5.70/mmbtuinShanghaiwhichwill:zpreventmarketdevelopmentzrequiresubsidytobemarketable,andco[e-mail]tralAsiangasPipelinestoNorthEastAsiaProposedRussianandCentralAsiangasProposedRussianandCentralAsian[e-mail]inaRussianGasExportstoChinaRussianGasExportstoChinazKovyktapipelinesupplyismostattractivelargescaleoptionfornorth/centralChinabacked–ifnecessary–bySakha(orWestSiberian)gas;zSakhalinpipelinegasismostattractivelargescaleoptionfornortheastChina;zWestSiberianandCentralAsiangasarepossibleoptionstosupportTarimBasinreservesinWest-EastpipelineChineseauthoritiesaredeterminedthatt[e-mail][e-mail]reaRussianGasExportstoKoreaRussianGasExportstoKoreazSakhalinpipelinesuppliesarethemostattractivebutwouldinvolveNorthKorea.zKovyktapipelinesuppliesarepossiblebutexpensiveandwilldependonChinesewillingnessandtiming.zLNGfromSakhalin(andothersources)willbecompetitivewith–andperhapscheaperthan–pipelinegas.Uncertaintiesaboutprivatisation,restructuringa[e-mail]