XXXX年加拿大油菜生产与产量分析

2010CanolaProductionOutlook2010年加拿大油菜生产与产量分析March,20102010年3月Jingzhou,China中国•荆州RuojunWangChinaFeedIndustryConsultant中国饲料工业顾问CanolaCouncilofCanada加拿大双低油菜理事会TheCanadianCanolaIndustryis…加拿大双低油菜籽行业Innovative.革故鼎新Resilient.灵活应变Determinedtocreatesuperiorvalueandahealthierworld.立志创造卓越价值和更加健康的世界。WorldVegetableOilUsage全世界植物油的使用PalmSoybeanCanola/RapeseedSunflowerPeanutCottonseedOliveCoconutCanolaisthethirdmostwidelyusedvegetableoilintheworld.双低菜籽油是世界上排名第三的使用最广泛的植物油。椰子棕榈大豆油菜籽葵花籽花生棉籽橄榄WorldCanola/RapeseedProduction(07-08)世界双低油菜/油菜籽产量（07-08年）EU-2733%Russia1%Ukraine5%Canada22%USA1%SA1%China20%India11%Australia2%other4%EU-27RussiaUkraineCanadaUSASAChinaIndiaAustraliaotherCanadaisresponsiblefor75%ofcanolatrade加拿大承担了世界75%的双低油菜籽贸易量。澳洲印度其他中国美国加拿大乌克兰俄罗斯欧盟27国南非CanolaFacts双低油菜籽简介•2ndlargestcropinCanada•加拿大第二大农作物•MostvaluablecroppingchoiceinWesternCanada加拿大西部最有价值的种植选择•Seedexportsontherise油菜籽出口增长•Domesticcrushexpanding国内压榨量增加•Canola–thehealthyoil双低菜籽油——健康的油Canolavs.Wheat双低油菜籽vs.小麦ValueofPrairieFarmCashReceiptsWheat(excl.durum)vs.Canola($000,000)0100020003000400050006000200020012002200320042005200620072008CanolaWheatLinear(Canola)Linear(Wheat)草原农场现金收入价值比较：小麦（硬粒小麦除外）vs.双低油菜籽（十万美元）双底油菜籽小麦红线（双低油菜）蓝线（小麦）CanadianCanolaSituation07/08-08/0907/08-08/09年加拿大双低油菜籽概况•Production:12.6-12.643mlnmt产量：1260-1264.3万吨•Seedexports:5.7-7.9081mlnmt油菜籽出口：570-790.81万吨•Seedexportsbydestination:各目的地国油菜籽出口量：Japan(2.0-2.0656),Mexico(1.3-1.1625),China(0.7-2.8719),U.S.A.(0.9-0.764),Pakistan(0.2-0.385),U.A.E.(0.3-0.5295)Bangladesh（0-0.1292）日本（200-206.56万吨），墨西哥（130-116.25万吨），中国（70-287.19万吨），美国（90-76.4万吨），巴基斯坦（20-38.5万吨），阿联酋（30-52.95万吨），孟加拉国（0-12.92万吨）CanadianCanolaSituation07/08-08/0907/08-08/09年加拿大双低油菜籽概况•Crush:4.1-4.656mlnmtseed压榨用量：410-465.6万吨油菜籽•Oilexports:1.3-1.5427mlnmtoil•油出口量：130-154.27万吨–US0.9281-1.0297,China0.249-0.3952–美国92.81-102.97万吨，中国24.9-39.52万吨–(香港地区18700-25300t、台湾地区=12100-13000t，南韩=34100-36600t)•MealExports1.9-1.861mlmmtmeal•油菜籽粕粉出口量：190-186.1万吨–US1.8-1.766mlnt,Iceland10200t,Mexico78300t，ChineseTaiwan2300t–美国180-176.6万吨，冰岛10200吨，墨西哥78300吨，中国台湾地区2300吨，–中国大陆过去无进口，2009-2010会有一些尝试性的大量进口CanolaSupply/Disposition双低油菜籽供应/处理02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00091/9292/9393/9494/9595/9696/9797/9898/9999/0000/0101/0202/0303/0404/0505/0606/0707/0808/09'000tonnesProductionExportsCrushEndingStocksProductionyears年份Production产量Exports出口Crush压榨加拿大双低菜籽生产预期•For2009-10,exportsareprojectedtobethesecondhighestonrecord,althoughdown12%fromtherecordsetin2008-09.2009-1010作物年度，出口将是历史上的次高记录，比2008-2009年度的最高记录会低12%•Domesticcrushisforecasttoriseduetoincreaseddomesticcrushingcapacity.因为国内压榨能力的扩大，国内压制预期会增加•Carry-outstocksareforecasttobesimilartothepreviousyear,withtheaverageprice•downmorethan10%.期末库存与上一年度相似，但平均价格会降低10%•For2010-11,seededareaisprojectedtoincreasefrom2009-10,butproductionandsupplyareforecasttodeclinemarginallyduetoloweryields.2010-2011年度，与2009-2010年度相比，种植面积会增加，但产量和供应因为单产降低会略有降低•Domesticcrushisforecasttorisetoarecord5.5Mtduetoexpandedcrushcapacityandincreaseddemandforoilandmeal.因国内压榨能力以及对菜粕和菜油需求的增加，国内压榨预计增加到550万吨的历史水平•Exportsareexpectedtodeclineduetoincreaseddomesticuse.Carry-outstocksareforecasttodeclinesignificantly因国内使用数量增加，出口量预计降低，期末库存预计大幅降低.•Pricesareexpectedtodeclineslightlyduetoweakerworldvegoilprices.因世界植物油价格偏弱，价格预计稍有降低加拿大菜籽出口历史•SeedExports(Historic)•CanadianCanolaSeedExportsCropYear-August1sttoJuly31stSource:Cereals&OilseedsReview-StatisticsCanada&CanadianGrainCommission(000Tonnes)99-0000-0101-0202-0303-0404-0505-0606-0707-0808-09Bangladesh---13.311.36.1103.494.495.7129.2•China1211.11889.6213.5-401.1275.0614.4873.4659.32871.9•Europe0.5-2.11.27.60.2----•Japan1800.81874.01589.51562.01675.01746.01957.81960.82084.42065.6•Mexico570.1846.0631.1450.41067.8944.11273.9899.71278.41162.5•Pakistan---172.7274.24.0590.1548.8222.8385.0•Turkey------53.928.951.9–•U.A.E.------181.6281.7347.9529.9•U.S.A.280.0248.887.6194.8317.4430.1616.6669.7920.7764.0•Others21.8-7.9173.9-10.919.877.3--•TOTAL3885.04859.02524.02394.43754.43412.45411.55434.75661.17908.1Canola*100Ha年度种植收获产量生产进口总供应出口食品饲料国内库存价格面积面积t/ha*1000t千吨$/T2007-20086,3676,2771.529,52917911,4905,6614,1441084,3011,5285532008-2009f6,5406,4941.9512,6439014,2607,0004,2753404,6602,600450-5002008-20096,5406,4941.9512,64312114,2257,9084,2803294,6561,6614672009-2010f6,0665,9751.7010,15020012,9506,5005,5003035,850600450-55009J2009-2010f6,5566,1051.9411,82515013,6367,0004,5004364,9861,650390-44010M2010-2011f6,8006,6801.7411,60012513,3756,5005,5004275,975900350-450作物年度为8月到来年7月黑胫病事件的现况•1-ChinaissuedaquarantineorderinNovember2009forcanolaimportsrequiringthattheymustbefreeofstemcanker(Leptosphaeriamaculans)whichhasnotbeenreportedinChina.中国政府2009年11月就双低菜籽的进口颁布检疫法令，要求不含有国内未报告的黑茎病病菌（Leptosphaeriamaculans,仅报道有弱毒种Leptosphaeriabiglobosa，无强毒种L.maculans，刘胜毅等2007）2-Forthe2009crop,Chinaagreedtoa“transition”yearwhichallowscanolashipmentsthatarepositiveforL.maculanstodischargeatcrushingplantsinnon-rapeseedgrowingzoneswherethereisnoriskofblacklegenteringtheChineserapeseed.InrapeseedgrowingzonesonlycanolashipmentsthattestnegativeforL.maculansareallow