中国近期粮食生产与耕地资源变化的相关分析

[]2005-04-12[](1976-),,,,[](KZCX3-SW-333)1,2,2(11,100875;21,100101)[](1996-2003),,,,,,,,[];;;[]F06213[]A[]100220209(2005)0520122206,,,[1][2][3],2000,4,20034.5,300kg-400kg,2003450-550kg[4][5],,10,5,,,,,11,199620037,11996-2003:104hm2;%1996199719981999200020012002200313003129691293012920.5512824.3112761.5812592.9612339.22-34-39-9.45-96.24-62.73-168.62-253.74-0.26-0.30-0.07-0.74-0.49-1.32-2.01[6][7]221()20055(191),199613003104hm2200312339.22104hm2,663.78104hm2,94.83104hm2(1,1),1,,,19970.26%20032101%11996-2003211998,,38,100:;,;,22:104hm2;%()1998199920002001200220031293012920.5512824.3112761.5812592.9612339.2217.618620.525816.325916.365419.6522.9106%30.8924.3910.4218.329.697.9516.461039.461476.282159.0689142.5552223.7309%28.8646.8848.7166.1370.3177.667.009110.712457.822510.834634.90136.4152%12.2912.7336.9212.1317.2112.6415.951913.46806.17383.05795.63395.0425%27.9716.003.943.422.781.7557.040684.1676156.604389.3268202.7401288.0992%%301943019425.750929.106520.260826.076131.080763.5748.2176.1876.4390.4614.756631.26176.33358.04293.279636.4351.7923.8223.579.5440.507560.368226.594334.11934.3603:,,,20,199828.86%200377.66%,,:,,;,,,,321,,,199520004.919965,19961999,,45,19985.12,5,,,,,1999,,2000,,2002,45706,19985524,10.78%,200343067200310,21996-2003:,(),,(),,1996(1,1),,1999,,(1,2,3),,,,,1996-2003,4386kg/hm2,0.5%,2000,125kg/hm2(8.33kg),31997-200331996-2003:%1996-19992000-2003-0.6341-3.78260.5447-8.34662.0982-6.8167:,(),,(),421()20055(191)31997-20033,,,1996-1999,2000-2003,3,0.6341%,3.7826%,19961.12548108hm220030.9941108hm2,187.69104hm2,19971998,,(3,3),,0.5447%,,8.3466%,,,,,,,,1996-2003,,,(45)41997-20034,,0.402(5),0.864,,,,,,,,6,,0.739,521,,,,,51997-200361997-2003,,(2),,82.68%,,,,,,,,,,:(1),,,,,,(2),,,0.067hm2(1);,,,,,;,,621()20055(191)(3),,,,,,,2004,1,,,,,2004220,,,[][1].2003[J].,2004,(1).[2],,.[J].,2004,(1).[3],,.[J].(),1999,(6).[4].2003[J].,2004,(9).[5],.[J].,2004,(8).[6].[M].:,2000.[7].(2003)[R].:,2004.()CorrelationofGrainProductionandCultivationLandResourcesChangesinRecentChinaZHOUXiao-ping1,LUYan-xia2,CHENBai-ming2(1.ShcoolofManagement,BNU,Beijing,100875;2.InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResources,CAS,Beijing100101,China)Abstract:TheproblemoffoodsecurityinrecentChina(1996-2003)hasrousedwideconcernbecauseofthedecreaseofoverallgrainoutput.Thispaperanalyzesthepresentstateofthechangesincultivationlandresourcesandexplores,intermsofqualitativemethodology,theinfluenceofthechangesupongrainproduction,includingthecorrelationbetweenthecultiva2tionarea,thegrainsowingarea,andthechangingratiooftheoverallgrainoutputsbetweenyears.Itrevealsthattheimme2diatecauseforthedecreaseinrecentyearscomesfromthedecreaseofthegrainsowingareas,whichontheonehandisrelat2edtothedecreaseofcultivationlandandontheotherresultsfromtheimplementationofsuchagriculturalpoliciesastheag2riculturalstructureadjustmentandecologicalprotection.Sothecorrespondingcountermeasuresareputforwardforassuringfoodsecurity.Keywords:cultivationlandresource;grainproduction;grainsowingarea;foodsecurity721