高技术产业技术投入和生产率增长之间关系的研究

7320084()ChinaEconomicQuarterlyVol17,No13April,2008AdamSzirmai3R&D,R&D,,,R&D,,R&D,,R&D,,R&D3,;AdamSzirmai,EindhovenUniversityofTechnolo2gy:,5,100732;E2mail:[e-mail](RoyalDutchAcademyOfSciences)2002/2003ECIS,2005,1OECD,5,22WangandSzirmai(2003)1,(2005)(19952005),2004,6341,19982004,811%1019%,GDP211%410%,,19952002,9%2218%,,2,2003,1015%,1816%,1618%,2316%(,2005)(),2004,914()72218%,2913%,20034311%3817%(,2007),3,3,,,,,Cornwall(1977),,FagerbergandVerspagen(1999),(),,(R&D),2080,,Romer(1990)R&DR&D,KendrickAbramovitz,,,R&D,Griliches(2000)Con2gressoftheUnitedStates(2005)R&D,R&D,NadiriandKim(1996),R&D,,R&D:(nonrival)(partiallynonexcludable),R&D,R&D,,FDI,,,3AdamSzirmai:915,,,,,R&DR&D,CohenandLevinthal(1989)R&D,R&D,,,,R&D,JeffersonandHu(2004)R&D,19911997,R&D11211107;Jeffersonetal.(2006),R&D,,R&D34;(2006)2002R&D0104,,R&D,R&D:,,;R&D,,,(Mokyr,2005),R&D,R&D,()R&DRobertSolow,(Solow,1957),2080,Romer(1986)Lucas(1988),,,,916()7Romer(1986)Lucas(1988),Romer(1990)R&D,,R&DRomer(1990)R&D,Romer(1986)Lucas(1988)(Helpman,2004),,,,R&D,,R&D,,,R&D:(1);(2);(3)(Romer,1990),Romer(1990),(Keynes2Ramseyrule,KRR),Cobb2Douglas,(blue2print),R&D,,(BGP),(thedecentralizedeconomy),,(thesocialplannerÄssolution),(Chiang,1992),Romer(1990),,R&D,,,,,R&DR&D,Griliches(1991)R&D40%60%,Romer(1990)R&D,Jones(1995a,1995b),,,,GDP(TFP),,R&D,,Jones(1995a,3AdamSzirmai:9171995b)Romer(1990),R&D,,R&D,,Romer(1990)Jones(1995a,1995b)R&D,Acemoglu(1998,2002)GanciaandZilibotti(2005),R&D,,,Romer(1990),AcemogluandZilibotti(2001),(inappropriatetechnologies)Rivera2BatizandRomer(1991),,,,AghionandHowitt(1992,1998),,R&D,,,,,AghionandHowitt(1992,1998),R&D,,,,,AghionandHowitt(2005),Young(1998),,,,Young(1998)Jones(1995a,1995b),,,R&DAghion,HowittandMayer2Foulkes(2005)Young(1998),R&D,(),R&D,,R&D,R&D,R&D,,918()7,R&D(GrossmanandSteger,2007),()R&DR&D,,R&D,,R&DR&D(knowledgestock),R&D:Yit=AetKitLitRiteit,(1)Y,KL,RR&DA,,,,R&D(1)(2):yit=a+t+kit+lit+rit+it,(2),y=Log(Y),k=Log(K),l=Log(L),r=Log(R),a,it(2),,,R&D0105016,Mansfield(1988),17R&D0142,SveikauskasandSveikauskas(1982)19591969144R&D01220116;,GrilichesandLicht2enberg(1984)1959197627R&D0104(2):dlog(Y)=+dlog(K)+dlog(L)+dlog(R),dlog(R)=d(R)/R=[d(R)/Y](Y/R)=(Y/R)[d(R)/Y]3AdamSzirmai:919=(E/Y)(=(Y/R),E=d(R)).:dlog(Y)=+dlog(K)+dlog(L)+(E/Y),(3),dlog(X)=dX/X,X;ER&D,R&DR&D,R&DE,R&D,R&DR&D(3)R&D(E/Y),R&D(Griliches,2000)(3)R&D,,016GrilichesandLichtenberg(1984)19591978193,R&D0104013,Griliches(1994)19581989142R&D01120146,GotoandSuzuki(1989)R&D0126()(2)(3),,,(3)R&D,(2),,(BasantandFikkert,1996),R&D,,,R&D,:ylit=a+t+klit+1rlit+2pflit+3pdlit+it,(4),xl=log(X/L),pfl=log(PF/L),PF,pdl=log(PD/L),PD,1R&D,2,3,,,:ylit=a+t+klit+1rlit+2pflit+3pdlit+12rlitpflit+13rlitpdlit+23pflitpdlit+it,(5)920()7,12,13,23R&DR&D,R&D,,(PIM),PIM()R&DR&D,R&D,,(ThePerpetualInventoryMethod,PIM),GotoandSuzuki(1989)GrilichesandMairesse(1984)Griliches(2000)CoeandHelpman(1995)Griliches(2000)GotoandSuzuki(1989),R&DR&DR&D,:Rt=6ni=1iEt-i+(1-)Rt-1,(6)RttR&D,,R&DEt-i,R&D,,,t-R&DtR&D,:Rt=Et-+(1-)Rt-1.(7)CoeandHelpman(1995),RE,1,R&DR0tR&DRt:R0=E0/(g+),(8)Rt=Et-1+(1-)Rt-1,(9),gER&D,R&DR&DR&D,R&D,,Jaffe(1972)R&D3AdamSzirmai:921GNP,CoeandHelpman(1995),(2003)R&D,0155,0145,R&D(PR):PR=0.5P+0.5W,(10)P,W(CPI),PRR&D,,(20032005)R&D,:15%;,;(lifespan)Griliches(2000),15%GotoandSuzuki(1989)R&D,()1415%,15%Griliches(1980)g,g19952002R&D,(8)(9)(10),R&D1996R&DPIM,1996,R&DGDPR&D,GDP(2005)GDP(),,1993SNA(PIM),OECD,PIM,,,,,PIM,PIMOECD(1996),:(1)922()7();(2),,;(3);(4)();(5)(retiredpattern)PIM,:Kt=6Tr=0rIt-r,Kt=(1-)Kt-1+It,(11),Kt,It-rtr,,,,PIM,(ICORs)1996,Timmer(1999),,,,,199720026ICORs,1996(2002)4,1996:4(2002),1985,19953044,2564,1996,4.3711996:(1);(2)19951996,,(NI),,,19952005,,1996Kt=(1-)Kt-1+NI199620041996,Wu3AdamSzirmai:923andXu(2002),2144%,,8111%,9145%,8199%WangandSzirmai(2005)()(20032005),1996GDP1996,GDP(2005)GDPGDPOECD(2001),,,PIM1996,,,R&DR&DR,PFPDPIM,199619962004521,,,11(19962004)YKRPFPD(2004,)5961.145361.09663.44337.4730.41,%21.4520.3625.739.254.40Y/L()K/L()E1/Y(%)E2/Y(%)E3/Y(%)(2004)103.7193.274.901.880.14,%18.2617.159.865.854.90:R(R&D),PF,PD;Y/L,K/L,E1R&D,E2,E3,Y:(20032005)1,2004,1996,5961114,5361109,R&D663144,R&D8108,10137,9133,2004,R&D,R&D4190%,1123%R&D(,2007),1188%,0114%,19962004,21145%20136%,,R&D924()725173%,9125%414%,R&D18126%,17115%,R&D(4)(5),tt,,OLS(FixedEffects,FE)(RandomEffects,RE)FOLSFE,LM(Lagrangianmultipliertest)OLSRE,HausmanREFEStata8HausmanFE,REFE,,22()(t,19962004):ylWithouttWithtFE(1)RE(2)FE(3)RE(4)FE(5)RE(6)FE(7)RE(8)kl0.3753330.4363330.3733330.4313330.2753330.3273330.2463330.314333(7.25)(8.76)(7.11)(8.54)(5.10)(6.87)(4.81)(6.50)rl0.3403330.3173330.3493330.3803330.1273330.1393330.1500.1743(7.78)(7.48)(3.33)(3.63)(2.41)(2.93)(1.52)(1.77)pfl0.0180.0070.046-0.01-0.036-0.0350.1160.104(0.46)(0.17)(0.35)(-0.09)(-0.96)(-0.96)(0.98)(0.89)pdl0.1323330.078330.1380.0850.0843330.05730.1020.062(3.60)(2.33)(1.77)(1.14)(2.47)(1.83)(1.46)(0.92)rlpfl0.0050.0050.0300.031(0.23)(0.22)(1.39)(1.41)rlpdl-0.0010.009-0.008-0.008(-0.04)(0.40)(-0.41)(-0.39)pflpdl0.002-0.0060.0100.007(0.13)(-0.48)(0.81)(0.56)t0.10433