学校超市销售的统计分析

IIIAbstractThisarticlemainlycarriedonthestatisticalanalysistothesalesquantityandthesalesamountoftheschoolsupermarket,andhasgiventheforecasttothesupermarketsalesquantitybytimeseriesstatisticssimulationfunctionindetail.Thismethodissuitablesimilarlyforthestockundulation.Moreover,usingthesectorestimatedandthevarianceanalysiscarriesontheestimateandtheforecasttothesalesquantityofthesupermarketproducts,toconsideredtheinflationtothesalesquantitywhitedisturbanceanalysis,obtainedsomeconcreteforecastfunction.Thispaperiscomposedoffollowingthreesections:Inthefirstsection,weintroducedtheresearchbackgroundandthemethod,moreoveralsointroducedtwoimportantmethodsintherationaledatastatistics:sectorestimateandvarianceanalysis.Inthesecondsection,thediscussioncarriesontheanalysisandtheforecasttothesupermarketsalesamountbytimeseries,carriesonthedivisiontothesupermarketsalesdataaccordingtothekind,carriesonthediscussionaccordingtotheseason.Anddeferstothelevelofdevelopment,theaveragerateofgrowth,thelong-termtrendandseasonalvariationfourpartstocarryontheanalysisandtheforecastseparately,inwhichhasanalyzedtheinfluencebetweentheinflationandthesalesamount.Inthethirdsection,wediscussthesupermarketsalesquantitydistribution.Anditwasdividedaccordingtothekindandtheseasonandcarriesonthesectorestimatetothesalesquantitytakingthesnowflakebeerastheexample.Tobeersalesquantitywhetherrelatetotheseason,whetherwastheteachersorstudentsupermarkethascarriedonthevarianceanalysis.Keyword:supermarketsale,normaldistribution,sectorestimated,varianceanalysis,timeseries..,,.,..,,.,.,________..111.1“”“”1.206-08()21:1000322.1[28][30][32],12ˆˆ,θθ1ˆθ2ˆθ12ˆˆθθ,()12ˆˆEθθ−X();Fxθθ12(,,.....,)nXXXX1ˆθ12(,,.....,)nXXX2ˆθ12(,,.....,)nXXXα01α{}112212ˆˆ(,,...,)(,,...,)1nnPXXXXXXθθθα≤≤=−12ˆˆ,θθθ1α−1ˆθ2ˆθ2.1.1.2σµ2,Nnσξµ:(0,1)uNnξµσ−=:41(01)αα−21Punαξµασ−=−221Puunααξµασ−−=−1α−2α2uα221Puuunnαασσξξα−+=−22,uunnαασσξξ−+2-1µ1α−2.2σµ2S2σ222212)()()(ξξξξξξ−++−+−=nSΛ()(1)nttnSSnξµξµ−−==−:1(01)αα−t2(1)tnα−µ1α−21PtSnαξµα−=−22,SSttnnααξξ−+2-252.1.21.21σ22σ21σ=22σ12µµ−12121211()()(2)WnnttnnSξηµµ−−−=+−+:()1212221111(),()WWnnnntStSααξηξη−−+−++2-312µµ−1α−2.12,µµ2212σσ()1222112211111222212212221()(1)1,11()(1)niniSnFFnnSnξξσσηησσ==−−==−−−−∑∑:−−−−−)1,1(1,)1,1(1211222121222122nnFSSnnFSSαα2-42212σσ1α−2.22.2.1[2]Aa[28][30][32]===++=∑=aiiiidiiijijiijnnjaiNeey12..0,...,1,,...,1),0(~τσαµ(2-5)ijyiiAjµ6iαiYABAaBb()()()()=========++++=∑∑∑∑====aiijbjijbjjaiidiiijkijkijjiijkbjaiNemkbjaiey11112...,,...1,0,,...1,0,0,0,0~,,...1,,...1,,...1αβαββασαββαµ(2-6)2.2.2[28][30][32]0121:0,:0aiHHiαααα====≠L..11inaijijyy===∑∑....yyn=.1iniijjyy==∑..iiiyyn=2-72..11()inaTijijSSyy===−∑∑22....()()TijiAeiiijiSSyynyySSSS=−+−=+∑∑∑ASSAeSS0H(1)(1,)()AAeeMSSSaFFanaMSSSna−==−−−:2-8αAPr()FαAA70112021203:0,:0,:()0,1,...,,1,...,abijHHHiajbαααβββαβ==========LL2..11()inaTijijSSyy===−∑∑TABABeSSSSSSSSSS==+++2-9ASSABSSBABSSeSS01H(1)(1,(1))(1)AAeeMSSSaFFaabnMSSSabn−==−−−:02H(1)(1,(1))(1)BBeeMSSSbFFaabnMSSSabn−==−−−:03H(1)(1)((1)(1),(1))(1)ABABeeMSSSbaFFababnMSSSabn−−==−−−−:Pr()Fα833.1[5][6][1]3-13-1070693.1.1[4][3]061-3889480.080X084-61620577.15nX1X2X1−nX20071-320064-620071-320064-64iX401XX−12XX−23XX−...1−−nnXX01XX−02XX−03XX−...0XXn−)(...)()()()(12312010−−++−+−+−=−nnnXXXXXXXXXX4[4]iX[4][4]01XX12XX23XX...1−nnXX[4]01XX02XX03XX....0XXn)()()()()(12312010−⋅⋅⋅⋅=nnnXXXXXXXXXXΛ101443-2200620083-320071056145.98-889480.08=166665.9166665.9/889480.08=18.73745166%3-311irivir-iv3-43-4()vrE−=∑−nvrii)(=13.21122009200917.2374+11.2098/2=14.223620092.3731+22.0244/2=12.198820085.9200920.123618.098820091235794.5×1+0.20123≅148415020091620577.2×1+0.18099≅1913900200620083-53-5123-63-63-73-713200913.485210.27182009727317.6×1+0.134852≅8254002009408101.1×1+0.102718≅4500203.1.2[4]1.[4]45a08.8894801=a8.12205422=a98.10561453=a...15.16205776=a2006200833.1215059==∑naai2.nx20062006200851.127508.88948015.16205775====∏nonniaaxx=112.75%114%75.1201120121aaaaaaaaxxxxnnnni=⋅⋅⋅=⋅⋅=−∏ΛΛ=×n)(nnxaa)1(0+×=2009889480.08×6%)75.121(+=1827400889480.087%)75.121(+×=20604001.06941.0869.2009594786.2×4)0694.01(+=7779000317840.4×4)0869.01(+=44358003.[4]150132aaxxxxniin∑==++++Λ719.62%n=51239.1=x2009889480.08×6%)39.121(+=1792700889480.087%)39.121(+×=20148001.12441.08702009594786.2×4)1244.01(+≅950700317840.4×4)0870.01(+≅4437403.1.31.416234Λ357Λ343-8332006200620074344241594786.2+317840.4+693355.1+344705.5=487671.82006200720064241487671.8+520804.65/2=504238.2253-9173-98451020301202.]4[18btaYt+=tYYta0=ttYbttY∑∑−−=−=22)()(btaYYYQtQabab∑∑+=tbanY∑∑∑+=2tbtatY22)(∑∑∑∑∑−−=ttnYttYnbntbnYbtYa∑∑−=−=3-103-10671.1532)21(9169.3086105219.107715186)(222−=−××−×=−−=∑∑∑∑∑ttnYttYnb1933.519715=−=−=∑∑ntbnYbtyatYt67.153233.519715−=3-1167.1532−=b66266=b539290=atYt66266539290+=203-1220098045344662665392904=×+=YtYt45130266620+=20094471404451302666204=×+=Y3.[4]1[4]2ctbtaYt++=∑∑∑++=2tctbanY21∑∑∑∑++=32tctbtatY∑∑∑∑++=4322tctbtaYt20062008abc48922021340-32703-132327021340489220ttYt−+=3-13232300195480431610ttYt−+=223-14200924432