东亚产业内贸易发展趋势的实证研究_对发展我国与东亚产业内贸易的政策

299Vol129No1920039JournalofFinanceandEconomicsSep12003(,200433):Grubel-LloydGlick-Rose8090,,GDP,,:;;;:F741:A:100129952(2003)09-0075-06,80,(),,(),GDP,,,,,GrubelLloyd(1975)GreenawayMilner(1982),,10,04;57;68;9,11Grubel-Lloyd(G&L)XiMii,Grubel-Lloyd(1975)Bi:Bi=1-Xi-MiXi+Mi100%,0Bi1,Bi1,i;,Bi0,i1,19901996,(),57:2003205230:(1973-),,,57G&L,()7G&LG&L:,,,G&L,,19901996,750%,113,2,()57,68,,119901996()(G&L)0+12+43576+819900.090.120.050.990.301.0019960.060.180.070.890.460.9419900.680.870.420.830.960.9119960.680.770.620.880.880.9519900.840.921.000.830.990.7619960.870.980.890.950.960.7619900.740.200.120.510.970.3819960.510.250.270.820.890.9219900.830.280.430.330.840.9219960.660.240.500.640.961.0019900.400.780.120.240.540.9619970.400.990.390.580.580.9219900.770.780.170.300.460.9719960.700.860.210.220.790.9119900.540.890.300.310.080.6819960.980.700.450.450.440.5819900.680.820.390.720.670.6619960.690.530.920.660.780.64:1996,1997,,,:19931997219901996()5+76+8(%)5+7199045.7326.4547.2236.6842.9133.2320.7020.3628.02199648.734.4561.7543.6457.5642.7853.8724.2131.036+8199022.6455.7419.5135.4119.8933.1620.5427.1239.18199622.5750.1216.9525.9318.4625.7920.4629.7243.18:121Glick-Rose(exportsimilarity)Grubel-Lloyd,,,(Finger&Kreinin,1979),Glick-Rose(1998),,:S(ih,k)=l(Xlik/Xik)+(Xlhk/Xhk)21-(Xlik/Xik)-(Xlhk/Xhk)(Xlik/Xik)+(Xlhk/Xhk)100ihkX,;Xlik/Xikiklik6720039,,Xlhk/Xhkhkl0S(ih,k)100,ih,100;,0COMTRADE,19711997387()SITC,3():1971199719711973197419761977197919801982198319851986198819891991199219941995199721.5418.8920.8821.7625.5628.8633.3635.8338.3531.8835.9639.2939.3438.9745.4245.9251.8658.4145.4245.7247.2245.3148.5250.7556.5356.0154.9735.9534.5638.1239.1440.2640.8345.7149.8453.94NIEs41.647.249.151.652.048.447.947.545.65.4815.8620.2315.5213.7512.0414.5421.0725.6427.9228.0026.2727.3831.0730.9638.9841.2645.0216.0211.8916.1814.7112.7314.7123.7726.1035.7717.0819.3816.8517.7820.4627.8936.7445.6946.56ASEAN(4)30.431.532.630.830.935.638.438.537.540.940.540.139.937.538.843.243.344.3:COMTRADE3,,NIEs19711983ASEAN198419921986199619851996,NIEs,NIEs,:,NIEs,NIEs,ASEAN,,,ASEAN,2050,7040()2080,,NIEs,,2080,,,,1985101321995178191,(),,1988,,,,,(1998),:1990,NIEs70%,20%;77:199450%SITC,,(Caves,1981)()GDP(),GDP,(),,Linder(1961)Balassa(1986),GDP,GDP,,,()GDP,OLSX()GDP(),,Y,19851997(),(),,()4()GDP//Y=10.14563+0.00087XY=42.82708+0.00120X(3.80848)(0.00013)(9.14815)(0.00014)R2=0.90584R2=0.81858Y=68.61866+0.00072XY=23.1408+0.00577X(1.72735)(0.00016)(3.82592)(0.00086)R2=0.95576R2=0.45378Y=37.03024+0.00167XY=40.28281+0.00451X(2.90468)(0.00015)(2.11665)(0.00071)R2=0.56209R2=0.88604Y=36.40875+0.00173XY=5.76761+0.02319X(1.77652)(0.00071)(1.67775)(0.00219)R2=0.89887R2=0.91095Y=26.9125+0.01875X(4.80117)(0.00752)R2=0.78023:t:19851997,GDP,GDP1000,01723R2,,,,20,19804917%19998918%,()3718%4714%6+85+7,,5+7(2),:,,8720039,,,(Singer,1950),,5C8,,,6C4,5(C8):%(1994)(1963)11.768.96.363.514.368.537.671.6::,,199812619931997(C4):%19931994199519961997282726232134333231304441393837:(1993-1999),,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,:97:[0];[1];[2]();[3]();[4];[5];[6];[7];[8];[9],:,,SITC,,Glick-Rose(1998),Xik/XiXhk/XhS(ih,k)=lXik+XhkXi+Xh1-(Xik/Xi)-(Xhk/Xh)(Xik/Xi)+(Xhk/Xh)100:3():[1]11998[C].:,19981[2]1[J].,1998,(12)1[3]BalassaB1Theintra-industryspecializationinUnitedStatestrade[J]1OxfordEconomicReview,1986,Vol(38).[4]CavesRE.Intra-industrytradeandmarketstructureinindustrialcountries[J]1OxfordEconomicPapers,1981,Vol(33):203-223.[5]FingerJM,MEKreinin.Ameasureofexportsimilarityanditspossibleuses[J].TheEconomicJournal,1979,89:905-912.[6]GrubelHG.,LloydPJ.Intra-industrytrade:thetheoryandmeasurementofinternationaltradeindifferentiatedproducts[M].Macmillan,1975.[7]Glick,Reuven,AndrewKRose.Contagionandtrade:whyarecurrencycrisesregional?[J].NBERWorkingPa2per,1998,6806.[8]LinderSB.Anessayontradeandtransformation[M].JohnWiley,1961.[9]SingerHW.Thedistributionofgainsbetweeninvestingandborrowingcountries[J].AmericanEconomicReview,1950,477.AnEmpiricalStudyontheDevelopmentTrendofIntra-industryTradesinEastAsiaProposalsontheDevelopmentofSino-EastAsiaIntra-industryTradesSHIZhi-yu(SchoolofEconomics,FudanUniversity,Shanghai200433,China)Abstract:ByemployingtheGrubel-Lloydintra-industrytradeindexandtherevisedGlick-RoseexportsimilarityindextoanalyzethetradedataofeachareainEastAsiafromthemid-1980stotheendof1990s,thepapertestifiestheexistenceofthetrendofincreasingintra-industrytradesinEastAsia.Thestudyshowsthatthewholeevolutiontrendofindustrialstructurechangingfromverticalinternationallabor-divisiontoahorizontalonemightmainlyattributetotheincreaseofpercapitaGDPofeacheconomyineastAsia.Finally,thepaperstudiesthefactorsconstraininginthedevelopmentofintra-industrytradebetweenChinaandotherEast-Asiancountries(areas),andthenitputsforwardsomecorrespondingpolicyproposals.Keywords:intra-industrytrade;evolutionofindustrialstructure;differentiatedproducts;scaleeconomics0820039