中国东盟自由贸易区贸易效应及广西的经贸发展

中南民族大学硕士学位论文中国-东盟自由贸易区贸易效应及广西的经贸发展姓名：粟慧申请学位级别：硕士专业：中国少数民族经济指导教师：田孟清20070608IIIAbstractNowadays,inthedevelopmentoftheworldeconomy,regionaleconomicintegrationisasuccessfulwayofachieveingcommomprosperityanddevelopment,andtheexperienceofEUandNAFTAhasgivenagoodexample.Regionaleconomicintegrationhasbecomeanimportantcharacterofeconomicdevelopmentsincethewarandalsoanobjectiveandinevitabletrendofcurrenteconomicdevelopmentintheworld.Astwoimportanteconomicbodiesofdevelopingcountries,ChinaandASEAN(theAssociationofSouthEastAsianNations)signedtheFrameworkAgreementonChina-ASEANComprehensiveEconomicCooperationonNovember4th,2001,andwillestablish“China-ASEANFreeTradeArea(CAFTA)”before2010.Andthissouth-southfreetradeareatobeformedbetweenthemwillbethethirdlargestFTAoftheworldimmediatelyafterUNandNAFTA.Thisisapositiveresponseofthetwobodiestothetrendofregionaleconomicintegration,andisagreatactofdevelopingregionaleconomiccooperationwithneighbors,afterChinaaccededtoWTO,andisalsoagreateventinthecourseofmodernizationdevelopmentinSouthAsia,whichwillexertaninestimableinfluenceonAsiaandthepolitical&economicpatternoftheworld.GuangxiislocatedattheuniondepartmentofChinaandASEAN,andisbecominganimportantgatewayofthemdaybyday.Facedwiththenewformsofdevelopment,itisnecessarytoseizetheopportunities,exerttheadvantages,accelerateeconomicdevelopmentofGuangxi,andmakefulluseoftheroleandstatusGuangxiplayingintheChina-ASEANFreeTradeArea.Fromtheperspectiveofregionaleconomicintegrationandinternationaleconomiccooperation,thispaperregardsthetradeeffectsbroughtbyChina-ASEANFreeTradeAreaasthestudyobject,andusesqualitativeandquantitativestudyingmethod.Atfirst,theauthorsimplyintroducesthebackgroundofestablishmentofCAFTA,andmakesananalysisonimportandexporttradestructurebetweenChinaandothermembercountriesofASEANbasedonthetheoryofcustomsunion,andusesquantitativeanalyzingmeans-showingcomparedadvantageindicesandanalyzeswherethecomparedadvantagesare,whichindustries,productsorfieldswillbringthetradeeffects.AndthenusingquantitativeanalysismeansGrubel-LloyedIndex,theauthoranalyzestheintre-industrialtradebetweenChinaandASEAN.ThispaperfocusesonthetradeeffectofCAFTA,andanalyzestheeffectsofthemIIIupondynamictrademainlyfromtheangleoftradediversioneffect,tradecreationeffectandimportexpansioneffect.Then,thepaperbrieflyanalyzesdynamiceffectofcustomsunion.Atlast,thispaperdeeplyanalyzessuperioritiesanddrawbacksofGuangxiinCAFTAbycombiningthetradesituationbetweenthem.Guangxishouldfullyutilizetheregional,transportation,resourceadvantagesandstrongmutuallyeconomiccomplementbetweenGuangxiandASEAN,createconditionpositively,fullyexerttheroleas“leader”,tryhardtobuildgreatpassagewayofsouthwest,andstrengthencooperationandcommunicationwithmembersofASEAN.KeyWordsChina-ASEANFreeTradeArea(CAFTA)Guangxitradeeffect1______212005733080%101990200211419401020607080908%2197619581968CACM1984LanghammerandAdvantage19621979LAFTA1197919802090(MERCOSUR)(Eats)MERCOSURMERCOSURMERCOSUR(Flors)(Lewis)(CGE)MERCOSUR22001HassanSAARCPerera199843DeRosaLewisandRobinsonCGE5421561Torre,A.andM.R.Kelly.RegionalTradeArrangements.IMFOccasionalPaperNo.93.1992.37-372DeRose,D.A.RegionalIntegrationArrangements:StaticEconomicTheory,QuantitativeFinding,andPolicyGuidelines,WorldBankWorkingPaperNo.2007,1998.73-743452002.762002.937199889101172002.982003.19.2002.10102002Z2112003.445RegionalEconomicIntegration1950JacobViner612TradeCreationTradeDiversion2121DXSXBXAXPX=1CXPX=1.5BBX100%BAPX=2XB50XGH20GJA30GHBAABXPX=1B70XAB10XACA60XCBA30JH12.[M].2006760XCBBAGHBAGJCMJHNBCJMBHN199822DXSXBXS1S3AC100%BAPX=2XS1+TB50XGH20XA30XJHBJMNHBCCXBCPX=1.5XPX=1.5B60XG'B'15XG'C'C45XC'B'BXAC30X45XC20VBAGWZMHCEPX130102050608070402345JNE1+TSXS1DX0X81998BC22C'JJ'B'HH'MNH'J'30XACMNH'J'C'JJ'B'HH'MNH'J'C'JJ'B'HH'BMNH'J'C'JJ'B'HH'BMNH'J'C'JJ'B'HH'BB10151020304050607080XGGJCEHJHMNBS3S1DXS1+T011.52345PX$SX9WMCordenTScitovskyJFDeniauMBKraussBBalassaBBalassaFTA13TScitovsky13..1999P10410TScitovskyJFDeniau1414..1998P260-26211XY12CAFTAASEAN1967810401992146CEPTAFTA90%209020001125410120011165101102002114101200311200320101721.2CAFTAEUNAFTA30%CAFTAEU10%NAFTACAFTA1310%4NAFTAEU2003107101200411810110CAFTA20057120057700051995200531199820019971419982005102004100020051303.7553.7750.0200423.1%29.1%19.1%2120%200520%42005144219.2%660111.4%76207.3%2004CAFTAGlobalTradeAnalysisProject,GTAP2010,CAFTA1.3NAFTAEU2010CAFTA20%30%2015CAFTA10655.1%13048%CAFTAGDP0.9%0.3%45%55%152005234295.0331.05200526855821.24385.18724.0653.2%48%15.[J].20031115200120022003200420051017365260960516039326502261676351878374350593013741252206927659011596412164150131045286766226910451540425108426298367862510338504361391628302093918600220012332418890103754214355233720205840200814220432107516119421187721735217868959083003148251526033111412725159802983952842339292543304053310543404787320022006199519992002200320042005199520040.00.00.20.21.82.23.10.04.80.04.71.019.449.226.233.060.6171.95.7-1.2-0.7-0.4-0.530.4-6.91.51.11.31.70.147.079.622.53.213.21.82.015.9138.613.764.90.00.0-0.20.2304.118.2-10.4-178.3136.798.320.6245.01