出口贸易、技术进步与中国经济增长

华中科技大学博士学位论文出口贸易、技术进步与中国经济增长姓名：吕惠娟申请学位级别：博士专业：西方经济学指导教师：张建华20070530IIIIIIAbstractTraditionaltradeandgrowththeoryconcernaboutwhetherexporttradecanleadtoeconomicgrowthbyenlargingitself.Newtradetheoryandnewgrowththeorypointoutthattechnologyprogresscansupportthegrowthofeconomywhileexporttradeisanimportantchannelofpromotingtechnologyprogress.Basedontheframeworksoftraditionalandnewtheoriesoftradeandgrowth,thisarticlediscussestheexporttrade’sroleanditspromotingmechanismineconomicgrowthofChina.Inthefirstchaptertheproposalandcontentsoftheresearcharediscussed,andthearticleswhichtalkabouttrade,technologyprogressandeconomicgrowtharesummarized.Thesecondchapterreviewsthetheoriesoftradeandeconomicgrowthbyintroducingtraditionaltradeandgrowththeory,technologyprogressineconomicgrowththeory,andnewtradeandgrowththeory.Itofferstheoreticalbasementandanalyzingframeworktosubsequentempiricalresearches.ThethirdchapterdiscussestherelationshipbetweenexporttradeandeconomicgrowthofChina.ItintroducestheprogresshistoryofexporttradeandeconomyinChina,makesempiricalresearchesbyusingcointegrationtheory,analyseshowexporttradecandrivealongthegrowthofeconomyofChina,anddictatesthereasonsofthiseffects.Theforthchapterisaboutexporttradeandtechnologyprogress.Itquantifiestheabstractconceptsoftechnologyprogress,andthendefinesthemainfactorswhichaffecttechnologyprogressasasystem,andanalysestheeffectsbyusingmeasuringtools.Thefifthchapterisabouttheresearchoftherelationbetweeneconomicgrowthandexportwhichbasedontechnologyprogresstransmittingmechanism.ItusesFeder’stwo-sectorgrowthmodelandextendsit,andanalysesthetwotypesoftechnologicalprogressfactorsinexporttradewhichaffectseconomicgrowth,whichare“thefactorproductivityadvantageofexportsectorscomparetonon-exportsectors”and“thetechnologicaldiffusioneffectsofexportonnon-exportsectors”.ConsideringthefeatureofexporttradeinChina,andfocusingonexportstructureandexportmainbody,itanalyseshowexporttradedrivesalongeconomicgrowththroughaffectingtechnologicalIVprogress.Countermeasuresandsuggestionsarediscussedinthesixthchapter.Basingonresultsofanalyzing,itfindsoutproblemsremaininginexporttradeinChina,andgivesseveraladvicesofpromotingthesustaingrowthofexportandutilizingexporttodrivealongeconomicgrowthmechanisminourcountry.Thispaperstudiespracticalquestionsbyusingsomeeconometricsmethodssuchasregression,Granger-causalitytest,andcointegrationtheory.Anditdrawsseveralconclusions.Firstly,economyofChinaischaracterizedasrathermultifactor-drivingcompoundgrowththanexport-ledgrowth.Themainfactorofdrivingeconomicgrowthisinternaldemandratherthantrade.Althoughexportisnottheengineofdrivingeconomicgrowth,itisalsoanessentialfactor.Fromviewsoflongterm,ithasvitalmeaningofkeepingthestabilityoperationofmacroeconomicsysteminourcountry.Secondly,economicgrowthstyleinChinaisextensiveasawhole,capitalaccumulationandlaborinvestmentscandeeplyaffecteconomicgrowthwhiletechnologicalprogresshaslimitedpromotiononit.Amongthemainfactorsofaffectingtechnologicalprogress,exporttradehaspositiveeffect,butthiseffectisnotmoredistinctthanthosemadebyR&Dandimporttrade.Thirdly,onthewhole,exportsectorsinChinapromotetechnologicalprogressbyrisingself-relativefactorproductivityandtechnologicaldiffusiontonon-exportsectors,anddrivethelongtermeconomicgrowth.Consideredfromexportstructureandexportmainbody,technologyprogresstransmittingmechanisminexportsectorsofmanufacturedproductsandforeigninvestmentexportenterprisearemoreevidentthanthoseinprimaryproductsexportingsectorsanddomesticcapitalenterprises.ByanalyzingtherelationshipbetweenexporttradeandeconomicgrowthinChina,andanalyzingthetechnologyprogresstransmittingmechanismofexporttrade,thispaperprovidesabasisofwholerangeevaluationofeffectsofexportonquantityandqualityofeconomicgrowthinourcountry.Keywords:exporttradeeconomicgrowthtechnologyprogresstotalfactorproductivity_____111.111,,.—.,2003(3):3-1021.21.2.1Balassa1978Tyler(1981)Feder(1983)Kavoussi(1984)Dollar1992McNabandMoore(1998)ELG32GrangerJungandMarshall1985Chow1987Oxley1993Jin1995JinandYu1996Xu1996Karunaratne1997Ghatak1998DhawanandBiswal1999KwanandCotsomitis(1991)Granger1952-19851952-1978VARLVARDGranger(LR)AICKwanandKwok(1995)1952-1985VARLGranger(LR)ZAFPELiuSongandRomilly(1997)19833-19951VARDGrangerSimsHsiao(1981)Geweke(1984)ADFEG-ADFGNPGNPShanandSun(1998b)6VARLTodaYamamoto(1995)Granger(Wald)ADFPPAICSC19785-199652,,..,2001(8):43-4841999GDPDFEngle-Granger2001GDPADFPPJohansenELG(2001)ADFJohansen2002GDPADFJohansenGranger2002GDPADFJohansen2005GDPADFPP19992001200120025KwanKwok(1995)ELG19992002KwanandCotsomitis(1991)1952-19851952-197820011991199519992005123+61.2.2GrossmanHelpman1991GrossmanHelpmanLucasCoeHelpman19957(TFP)22OECD1971~1990TFP(G7)6%(15)12%TFPCoe1997CoeHelpman2277Lichtenberg1998CoeHelpmanLichtenbergCoeHelpmanCoeHelpmanKeller1998TFPCoeHelpman()CoeHelpmanFalvey2002()()85521976~1990XuWang1999CoeHelpman(1)(2)(3)Lumenga-Neso2001BCBCBABABBACACBACCoeHelpmanCoeHelpmanKeller9Blyde2004-22151980~1997Feder198219311964-1973Kavoussi1984Kavoussi731960-197810LevinandRaut1999LevinandRaut