利用加工贸易技术扩散优化出口商品结构研究

:20060321:(1956),,,,,2006.4(,300222):,,,,,:;;;,,,19962005,54.66%,,?,?,,,(1999)(2003),20,,;,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,;,(,1999),,,,,,94,,,,,,(,1999),,,(TechnologyDiffusion),(Smith,1980),,Barrason(1976):,,,,(),(,1999),(),,(),80%(,2004),,,,,:,,,,,51.46%,21%,47%(,2003),,,,,,,,,05,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,(,2002),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,1590%,,30%(,2003),,,,,,,,,(),,,,,200427.9%,29.9%,,,,1:,%199346.85.132.870.2-0.55227.124.8162.071.30.24199463.45.247.174.3-0.53320.026.4226.770.80.261995101.06.977.977.2-0.37438.629.5306.569.90.291996126.68.4101.780.3-0.41482.131.9362.775.20.311997163.18.9136.483.6-0.34593.132.5438.073.80.321998202.511.0177.187.5-0.18665.436.2513.276.90.361999247.012.7216.687.7-0.21769.739.5582.575.70.392000370.414.9328.088.6-0.171053.142.3787.876.90.422001464.517.5414.689.3-0.161187.944.6882.774.30.452002678.120.8606.389.4-0.101570.848.31169.974.50.4820031101.625.2990.089.7-0.042274.651.91701.174.80.51:;2002;20031997,200454.5%27.9%(,25:10,),,,(1),,200375%,90%GJS,PG,,:GJS=-53.61+0.79PG(-3.64)(4.49)R2=0.69F=20.18,,,PG,,1,0.79,,,,()(TC),(-1,1)TC0,,;TC0,,:=(Xi-Mi)/(Xi+Mi),XiMii,(1),,,;,,;,0,,,(2),210.9560.9561:12,,,,,:YG=-2.25+0.024X(-11.09)(9.75)R2=0.91F=95.09,R2=0.91,(35X)(YG)91%,,19932003,,0.024,,(),,:,,,,,,,,,IT,,,IT,IT,,,,,,OEM;,1500;;460,40%95%,30%,,10%,,,,,,,,,,,,,/,()1.,,,,,,;,,,45,,,,,2.,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3./,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,/()1.,,,,(1)(2),,,,,;(3)(4),,(5),2.,,,,,55,,(1),,,,;,(2),,,,;,,:.2002.2002[M].:..2003.[J].(11)..2004.[N].,02-23..1999.[M].:..2002.2001()[M].:..2003.[J].(11)..1999.[J].(8)..1999.[M].:.BARRASONJ.1976.InternationaltransfersofindustrialtechnologybyUSfirms[M].Lexington,Mass:LexingtonBooks.GROSSMANGM,HELPMANE.1990.Trade,knowledgespilloverandgrowth[R].NBERWorkingPaper,No.3485.SMITHD.1980.ThediffusionandproductionofnewtechnologiesinAtulWad(eds.),science,technologyanddevelopment[M].[S.L]:WestmiewPress.YOUNGA.1991.Learningbydoingandthedynamiceffectsofinternationaltrade[R].NBERWorkingPaper,No.3577.StudyontheEscalatorofExportProductStructurebytheTechnologyDiffusionofProcessingTradeZHAOXiaoOchen(SchoolofEconomics,TianjinUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,Tianjin300222)Abstract:Theroleofprocessingtradeintheeconomicdevelopmentisnotonlyreflectedintheforeigntradeexpansionandeconomicgrowthbutalsointhepromotionoftechnologyadvanceandtheescalatorofproductstructures.Theseresultsareacquiredbytheeffectsoftechnologydiffusionofprocessingtrade.TheprocessingtradediffusesandspreadstheforeignadvancedtechnologybywayofabsorbingFDI,importandexportofprocessingproducts,industrialcoefficienteffectsaswellascapitallaborfollows.Itdrivesthees2calatorofproductstructuresandpromotestheupgradingoftechnologyprogress.Keywords:processingtrade;technologydiffusion;structureescalator;policyadjustment()65