联合国贸易与发展报告XXXX英文版

AdjustingtothechangingdynamicsoftheworldeconomyUNITEDNATIONSCONFERENCEONTRADEANDDEVELOPMENTTRADEANDDEVELOPMENTREPORT,2013EMBARGOThecontentsofthisReportmustnotbequotedorsummarizedintheprint,broadcastorelectronicmediabefore12September2013,17:00hoursGMTUNITEDNATIONSCONFERENCEONTRADEANDDEVELOPMENTGENEVATRADEANDDEVELOPMENTREPORT,2013ReportbythesecretariatoftheUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopmentUNITEDNATIONSNewYorkandGeneva,2013• Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures. Mention of such a symbol indicates a reference to a United Nations document.• The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.• Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgement is requested, together with a reference to the document number. A copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint should be sent to the UNCTAD secretariat.NoteUNCTAD/TDR/2013UNiTeD NATioNS PUbliCATioNSalesNo. e.13.ii.D.3iSbN 978-92-1-112867-3eiSbN 978-92-1-056284-3iSSN 0255-4607Copyright © United Nations, 2013All rights reservediiiExplanatorynotes.......................................................................................................................................xiAbbreviations...........................................................................................................................................xiiiOVERVIEW......................................................................................................................................I–XVIIITradeandDevelopmentReport,2013ContentsPageChapterICurrenttrendsandChallengesintheWorldeConomy ......................................1a.recenttrendsintheworldeconomy ...................................................................................................1 1. Global growth ....................................................................................................................................1 2. international trade .............................................................................................................................4 3. Recent trends in commodity prices ...................................................................................................8B.thestructuralnatureofthelatestcrisis ...........................................................................................10 1. An impossible return to the pre-crisis growth pattern .....................................................................11 2. Roots of the crisis: the build-up of structural problems ..................................................................14C.developingandtransitioneconomiesarecontinuingtogrow,butremainvulnerable ................21 1. Growth performance since the early 1990s .....................................................................................21 2. Vulnerability to trade shocks ...........................................................................................................25 3. Vulnerability to financial instability ................................................................................................29notes ...........................................................................................................................................................32references ..................................................................................................................................................35AnnextochapterIalternativescenariosfortheWorldeconomy .......................................................................................37ivPageChapterIItoWardsmoreBalanCedgroWth:agreaterrolefordomestiCdemandindevelopmentstrategies .................................................47a.introduction .........................................................................................................................................47B.globaltradeshocksandlong-termtrends:terms-of-tradeandvolumeeffects ...........................49 1. Volume and price components of external trade shocks ..................................................................49 2. Recent movements in the terms of trade .........................................................................................50 3. Factors affecting commodity prices: is a supercycle petering out? ................................................52 4. Commodity prices: prospects ..........................................................................................................59C.volumeeffectsonexportersofmanufactures ..................................................................................60d.towardsmoredomestic-demand-orientedgrowthstrategi