贸易大国和贸易强国的评判体系指标化及实证分析

湖南大学硕士学位论文贸易大国和贸易强国的评判体系指标化及实证分析姓名：李峰申请学位级别：硕士专业：@指导教师：张亚斌20070801IIIAbstractInthecontextofglobalproductionnetworks,withthedevelopmentoftheChina’seconomy,theextensiveeconomicgrowthisincreasinglyunsuitedtoChina'seconomicdevelopmentneeds.ChinaMOFTECproposedthatourcountryshouldchangeabignationtoapowernation.Butinthetheory,thedefinitionofacountryisalargenationorapowernationisveryvague,butalsoinqualitativedefinition.Therefore,howtodefinethecriterionofabignationorapowernationandhowtodefinetheplaceofChina,howtochangeabignationtoapowernationisthispaperconcerned.Inthispaper,largenationandpowernationfortheevaluationofthesystemistoexplainthesignificanceofthedefinitionoftheconceptoflargenationandpowernationandhowtochangefromthelargenationtothepowernation,inordertoprovidepolicyrecommendationsfornothomogeneousbigcountryhowtochangethemodeofforeigntradegrowth.ThispaperanalysestheissuefromtheHorizontalandverticalpoints.Firstly,throughthegeneraltheoriesoftheconstructionoftheindexofthelargenationandthepowernation,thispaperillustratedthemeaningoftheconstructionunderthetheoriesofGPNS,andconstructedthetotaloftheindexundertheupgradepathofthedifferenttypesofthecountries;Secondly,basedonthehorizontallevel,thispapercomparedChinawiththepubicpowernations,usedthefactoranalysis,wegotthecriterionsofthelargenationandthepowernation.theconclusionshowedthatChinahadlargerscoresthanotherrecognizedpowernationsonthescoreofthelargenation,butChina'stradepowerindicatorscoresweresignificantlylowerthantherecognizedpowernations.TheCriterionofthelargenationwasthatbenefittradecapacity,trade-dependentcapacity,export-scalecapacity,andthebenefithadthelargestshareofthecapacityofallfactors,whichreflectthesizeoftheincreaseintradebenefitsabilitytoleadthecountryasabigdevelopment;andthecriterionofthepowernation,theconclusionswerethatthecreate-benefitscapacity,thetradestructureupgradecapability,andthescaletradecapacity,thetradesafecapacitywerethecriterionofthepowernation,whichcreate-benefitscapacityhadthelargestshareofallfactors,itsmainimpactistheindexoftheaddedvalueoftrade,theindexofthetradebrand.Onthisbasis,throughthemainfactorinclusteranalysisshowedthatthepositionofChina,theconclusionwasthatChinaisstillintheextensiveeconomicgrowthphase,whichisabignationnotapowernation;Thirdly,basedontheverticalpoints,IIIaccordingtothecriterionsofthepowernation,thispaperusedthedataanalysis,thedevelopmentofChinainrecentyearshasthelargegapsintheindexofpowernation,mainlyarethat:poorcreate-benefitcapacity,thelowervaluechain;theirrationalstructureoftrade,thecontentofscienceandtechnologyisnottoohigh;relianceonforeigntrade,securitycapacityisnothigh;largetradefrictions,thetradeenvironmentshouldimprove;Finally,undertheprevioustwochaptersofempiricalanalysis,thispaperpresentedthepolicyrecommendationsaboutChinahowtochangealargenationtoapowernationinchina.KeyWords:largenation;powernation;GPNS;thefactoranalysis;theclusteranalysis2.1....................................................................................132.2....................................................................................142.3............................................................................152.4............................................................................162.5................................................................................172.6................................................................................173.1...................................................................................................311□______2□“√”111.11.1.11978198020051980381.4200514221.23720002004198050.3%20037.94%198049.7%200392.06%198614.37%200351.4%2000959.891.1%10.91%19993.928.32.7%1999247%11.21.1%199975.4%2000350.333.3%96.4%20“”“”2“”,“”“”()“”“”“”1.1.2200311133globalvaluechains(globalcommoditychains),,(),,“”:“”()2020(1)20%10%(2)“”“”(3)41.21.2.115—17,“”·“”·[37]·5·,,[32]1985198970,Krugman,,,,[33]MichaelE.Porter1990“”DiamondModel1010062070(intra-producttradeArndt1997and1998)1.2.21.2.2.1(2002).(2003)2000200042001[39]82004[38]421(1);(2);(3),;(4)20052007[42],20051107(),1.2.2.2.(2002).(2003)Christ-opherEdmonds1,SumnerJ.LaCroix,200610200314,2004152004[3],20052006[6][35]2006,1.2.2.32004[3]2004[12]421CTPI2005[35]820052006[21]IMDWEM2006[11]2006[20]2006[37]14222006[62]2006[36]GDP2007[42],1.2.2.42003[14]2005202006[21]2006[11]2006[21]20052005[44]2006[35]92006(2001)“”200320062006[42],,:,,;,,;,,,,123412342005200619,,,;,,;,200518OEM200622101.31.41.4.11112341.4.2123122-2.12.1.112342.1.2ITCOECD132.12.12.1.3DieterErnst(1999)Dicken&Henderson(1999)GPNS,,,,,,,,14,,,(),,----[17]2.22.22.2.115GDP,2.32.32.2.2“---”162.22.42.3,“”GDP,GDP,GDP,,2.4,..2005(5)17,2.5:GDP2.52.62.42.4.11“———”2“”50018GDP12112005Hummels1999()()()12kVAMNMDDDVSVSVSAAxAxAxµ=−=++…2.5VSMVSN100200410031:;23419N=PX/PMNPXPM3,GDP,GDP,GDP=(++-),,,,,(+++),;,,=+-2.4.212122032-1:2.1X1X2X3X4X5X6X7X8X9X10X11X12X13X14X15213-3.1-3.1.13.1.1.1PrincipalComponentsAnalysisiβ()1,2,,ik=ii-1iiβ1122kkFFFFβββ=+++F1F2…,Fkknp11X12X1pXX=21X22X2PX221nX2nXnpX1Z—score'/i