非竞争型投入占用产出模型及其应用——中美贸易顺差透视

©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,,2002(),()LawrenceJ.Lau(),1944,(,,)X:LawrenceJ.Lau(StanfordUniversity,),(),LeonardK.Cheng(),K.C.Fung(UniversityofCaliforniaatSantaCruz),Yun-WingSung(),()(No.60474063),!(Dr.WangZhi,InternationalTradeCommissionoftheUnitedStates),!!,2006,20072282006,,2007,1028,20012006,(GDP)1011%,2811%,,20062712%2005,,,,,,,,,19©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(FreeonBoard,FOB),,,,,,,;ZhiWangWTO,WTO,,,,,,,,:()()(),,,,,,,,,D.Hummels,J.IshiiK2M.Yi,(VerticalSpecialization),(OECD),D.Hummels,1992200312,2920075:19952002,JournalofAsianEconomics,vol.14,2003,pp.489496.K.C.Fung,LawrenceJ.LauandYanyanXiong,AdjustedEstimatesofUnitedStates2ChinaBilateralTradeBalances:AnUpdate,PacificEconomicReview,vol.11,2006,pp.299314.:,,2001ZhiWang,TheImpactofChinapsWTOAccessiononthePatternsofWorldTrade.JournalofPolicyModeling,vol.25,2003,pp.141.D.Hummels,J.Ishii,andK2M.Yi,TheNatureandGrowthofVerticalSpecializationinWorldTrade.JournalofInternationalEconomics,vol.54,2001,pp.7596.©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2002,(),(1),,39:,20065:,,,2004,2682802006,73519982001,LawrenceJ.LauLeonardK.ChengK.C.Fung,1995,,,19951000240,5452006,200020022002,,2002,,2003,12©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:D,M,T,DC,MC,;XDijXMijji;FDFM;XM,:nj=1XDij+FDi=Xi(i=1,2,,n)(211)nj=1XMij+FMi=XMi(i=1,2,,n)(212),FDiFMi,XiXMii:AD=[aDij][XDij/Xj];AM=[aMij][XMij/Xj](211)(212):ADX+FD=X(213)AMX+FM=XM(214),AV=[aVj][Vj/Xj],;BV=(bV1,bV2,,bVn),,:BV=AV(I-AD)-1(215),X=(I-AD)-1FD=BDFD(216),BD=(I-AD)-1,;BD:X=(I-AD)-1E(217)V=AVX=AV(I-AD)-1E=BVE(218)L=ALX=AL(I-AD)-1E=BLE(219),X;E;V4920075©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.=[aLj][Lj/Xj],Ljj;BL,BL=AL(I-AD)-1(218)V,BV;,(219)L,BLE()11,aMij=XMij/Xj,ji,:bMij=aMij+nk=1bMikaDkj(i,j=1,2,,n)(2110):BM=AM+BMADBM=AM(I-AD)-1=AMBD(2111),BM=[bMij]2.,,,,1,159©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:aMj=ni=1aMij(j=1,2,,n)(2112):AM=uAM(2113),AM=(aM1,aM2,,aMn),;u1,u=(1,1,,1)bMjj,:bMj=aMj+ni=1aMiaDij+ni=1nk=1aMkaDkiaDij+ni=1nk=1ns=1aMsaDskaDkiaDij+(j=1,2,,n)(2114)(2114)j,j,j,jn(2114):BM=AM+AMAD+AMADAD+AMADADAD+=AM(I+AD+AD2+AD3+)=AM(I-AD)-1(2115),AM=(aM1,aM2,,aMn),BM=(bM1,bM2,,bMn),3.1,bVj=1-bMj(j=1,2,,n):BV=u-BM(2116)(215)(2115):BV+BM=AV(I-AD)-1+AM(I-AD)-1=(AV+AM)(I-AD)-1,,:uAD+uAM+AV=u(2117):BV+BM=(AV+AM)(I-AD)-1=(AV+uAM)(I-AD)-1=(u-uAD)(I-AD)-1=u(I-AD)(I-AD)-1=u(2118)6920075XikangChen,LeonardK.Cheng,K.C.FungandLawrenceJ.Lau,TheEstimationofDomesticValue2AddedandEmploymentInducedbyExports:AnApplicationtoChineseExportstotheUnitedStates,WorkingPaper,DepartmentofEconomics,StanfordUniversity,Stanford,California94305,June,2001.ThepaperwasalsopresentedattheAEAmeeting,Boston,January,2005;andmimeo,StanfordUniversity.©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(2118),1,,(2116),1000,32615,44;913;315,100039417(2116),100060513(1000-39417),(215)D.Hummels,,,()1,,(),,,,,,,,,(Input2Occupancy2OutputModel,ExtendedInput2OutputModelwithAssets),,(2)1.::,,200279XikangChen,Input2Occupancy2OutputAnalysisandItsApplicationinChina,inManasChattezjiandRobertE.Kuenne(eds.),DynamicsandConflictinRegionalStructuralChange,London:MacmillanPress,1990,pp.267278.XikangChen,Input2Occupancy2OutputAnalysisandItsApplicationintheChineseEconomy,inShriBhagwanDahiya(ed.),TheCurrentStateofEconomicScience,Rohtak:SpellboundPublications,Pvt.Ltd.,1999,pp.501514.XikangChen,Ju2eGuo,andCuihongYang,ExtendingtheInput2OutputModelwithAssets,EconomicSystemsResearch,vol.17,2005,pp.211225.2002,12©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(XD)T(XP)T(XN)T:KDKPKNLDLPLN::DPNM;XDXPXNDPN;FDFPFNDPN;DD,DP,DN;XDDXDPXDNDPN;XNDXNPXNNDPN;FDCFDI,FD=FDC+FDI;FPE,FP=FPE,,;FNCFNIFNE,FN=FNC+FNI+FNE;XMDXMPXMNDPN;FMCFMI;VDVPVNDPN;LDLPLNDPN2002,5212%,,:(D),(P),(N,)D,,,89200752002,14©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),;,2DPNM:XDD+XDP+XDN+FD=XD(311)FP=XP(312)XND+XNP+XNN+FN=XN(313)XMD+XMP+XMN+FM=XM(314):uXDD+uXND+uXMD+VD=(XD)T(315)uXDP+uXNP+uXMP+VP=(XP)T(316)uXDN+uXNN+uXMN+VN=(XN)T(317),u1,(311)(312)(313)(314):A