中国航空mro市场分析

1AviationWeek2005MROChinaConferenceAeroStrategyMROinChinaAnAnalysisandForecastPresentedbyHalChrismanAnnArbor,Michigan•GreatMissenden,U.K.’sModelCoversFiveKeyMROSegments•Includes:majorengineoverhaulswithLLPcosts;impactofspareenginesubstitution;excludesunscheduledvisitsandupgradesEngineOverhaul•Includes:overhaulandrepaircostsfor22ATAChapters•Excludes:warrantyimpact,otherATAChapters(e.g.IFE),inventoryoverheadcosts(e.g.,warehousing,management)Components•Includes:A,BandovernightchecksLineMaintenance•Includes:passenger-to-freighter,IFE,avionics,andothermajormodificationsModifications•Includes:CandDchecklabourandmaterialcosts;impactofageonnon-scheduledwork;differentlaborratesbyregionAirframeHeavy4AviationWeek2005MROChinaConferenceAeroStrategyNearly$100BillionIsSpentAnnuallyOnAircraftMRO–MoreThanTheValueOfNewAircraftProduction*includescivilrotarywingaircraft;excludesmajormilitarymodificationsSources:AeroStrategy,TealGroupMarketSegmentActiveAircraftTotalAircraftMROSpending($B)OutsourcedAircraftMROSpending%MROOutsourcedMilitary39,0001631%16,5001850%Business&GeneralAviation*30,000790%total55,500~$96MarketSegmentActiveAircraftTotalAircraftMROSpending($B)OutsourcedAircraftMROSpending%MROOutsourcedMilitary39,000$521631%AirTransport16,500$361850%Business&GeneralAviation*30,000~$8790%total85,500~412004GlobalAircraftMROSpending$96B•ThevalueofaircraftMROnowexceedsthevalueofnewaircraftproduction(~$75B)•AirtransportMROaccountsfornearlyhalfofalloutsourcedaircraftMROactivity5AviationWeek2005MROChinaConferenceAeroStrategyCurrentAirlineExpenditureOnMROIsOver$36B;EngineMaintenanceIsTheLargestSegmentSources:AeroStrategy,1995figurefromTheCanaanGroup2004CommercialMROMarket$36.1BEngine34%Line23%Component21%AirframeHeavy14%Modifications8%1995$21B$36.1B2004MROMarketComparison1995vs.20046AviationWeek2005MROChinaConferenceAeroStrategyEngineOverhaulIs$12.2BIn2004;OEMsCapture43%Source:AeroStrategy2004EngineOverhaulDemand$12.2BByEngineCF6-80C214%CFM56-312%PW4000-948%JT8D-2006%PW20005%RB211-5355%CFM56-5A4%RB211-524GH4%V2500-A5/D54%CFM56-74%OTHER34%BySupplierTypeOEM43%SELF34%INDEPENDENT12%AIRLINETHIRDPARTY11%7AviationWeek2005MROChinaConferenceAeroStrategyEngineOverhaulSpendIsDrivenByMaterialCostsSource:AeroStrategyCoststructurefiguresbasedon2004survey2004EngineOverhaulMarket$12.2BOutsidepartsrepair13%Labour22%Fees3%Material62%2004MaterialBreakdown$7.5BNew67%Used/Serviceable13%PMA1-2%LifeLimitedParts19%Materialbreakdownbasedona2004engineoverhaulsurveythatincluded23participantsanddatafor4,588shopvisits8AviationWeek2005MROChinaConferenceAeroStrategyThereIsASignificantNetInflowOfEngineMROIntoEuropeMRODemandMROSupply•N.America-netexporter-2%$5B2004EngineOverhaulDemandAndSupplyByRegion-16%•Asia-netexporter$2.8B•Europe-netimporter+40%$3.1BSource:AeroStrategy9AviationWeek2005MROChinaConferenceAeroStrategyComponentMROMarketIs$7.6BIn2004Source:AeroStrategy2004ComponentMROMarketByATAChapter$7.6BWheels&Brakes18%Avionics15%APU13%Enginefuel&control8%FlightControls6%Equipment/furnishings5%AirConditioning5%ThrustReversers5%LandingGear4%Other21%2004ComponentMROMarketByATAChapter$7.6BWheels&Brakes18%Avionics15%APU13%Enginefuel&control8%FlightControls6%Equipment/furnishings5%AirConditioning5%ThrustReversers5%LandingGear4%Other21%10AviationWeek2005MROChinaConferenceAeroStrategyAirframeHeavyMaintenanceIs$4.9BIn2004;Over65%IsDoneIn-house2004AirframeHeavyMaintenanceMarket$4.9BSource:AeroStrategyDemandByAircraftType747-40012%A320Family11%737-3/4/5009%7678%7578%MD808%747-1/2/3006%A300-6003%7773%A340-200/3003%Other29%SupplyShareBySupplierTypeIndependent20%InHouse67%OEM1%Airline3rdParty12%11AviationWeek2005MROChinaConferenceAeroStrategy02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000AsiaPacificNorthAmericaEuropeRestofWorldOutsourcingPracticesVaryByRegion,WithAsiaPacificBeingTheHeaviest“In-Sourcer”SELFAIRLINETHIRDPARTYOEMINDEPENDENT85%55%71%58%ShareOfAirframeHeavyMaintenanceMarketBySupplierType($M)•AsiaPacifichasthehighestproportionofin-houseairframeheavymaintenance,reflectingthecurrentimportanceofflagcarriers•Thelargest“outsourcing”regionisNorthAmericawhere45%ofdemandisavailable•Europe,despiteitshighlabourrates,showsthesecond-highestshareofin-housesourcingSource:AeroStrategy12AviationWeek2005MROChinaConferenceAeroStrategyOverall,TheMROMarketIsForecastToGrowAt5.6%PerAnnumThrough2014Source:AeroStrategy*CAGR:compoundannualgrowthrateModificationsAirframeheavyComponentLinemaintenanceEngineoverhaulCAGR5.6%5.8%4.9%3.7%7.1%TOTAL5.6%2004-2014MROMarketForecast($B)0102030405060702004200520062007200820092010201120122013201413AviationWeek2005MROChinaConferenceAeroStrategyGlobalMROMarketOverviewMROOutlookForChinaAgendaKeyIssues&ImplicationsKeyMessages14AviationWeek2005MROChinaConferenceAeroStrategyTheChineseFleetWillGrowFrom25%To34%Over