中国金融市场化的度量分析

第28卷第9期财经研究Vol28No92002年9月JournalofFinanceandEconomicsSep2002刘毅1,申洪2(1,100875;2,100083):本文介绍了金融自由化的度量问题,回顾了已有文献中常用的度量方法,首次使用主成分分析法建立了中国金融自由化指标体系,并利用这一指标体系对我国金融自由化进程做了度量及分析,证明了它的有效性:金融自由化;金融自由化指数;中国金融自由化指数;度量;主成分分析法:F821.0:A:10019952(2002)09003908(FinancialLiberalization)McKinnon(1973),,Williamson(1998),,,,,1OuinnDennis,QuinnDennis(1997)!FinancialLiberalizationIndex∀,AlciaAdser(2001):!Quinn,0-1,,∀HyeokYongKwon(2001):!GDP,,QuinnInclan1997∀,Quinn!∀,,,2OrianaBandieraOrianaBandiera,GerardCaprioJr.,PatrickHonohanFabioSchiantarelli(1998),,8#25:20020531:(1978-),,,;(1978-),,,∃39∃,Bandiera,,,1,0,2,(),,95%:(1)(DomesticFinancialLiberalization),(InterestRates)(ProcompetitionMeasures)(ReserveRequirements)(DirectedCredit)(Bank%sOwnership)(PrudentialRegulation);(2)(SecurityMarket),;(3)(InternationalFinancialLiberalization),,,Bandiera,,,,SPSS,,3LucLaevenLucLaeven(2000)13,,,,1,0,6,06Laeven,,()&LaevenBandiera,,,(ArturoGalindo,2002),,Bandiera,4(2001)8∋,5:,12345,40%,,,,120,,,,,,∃40∃20029,9(1)1,,,,,,,,;:;(,2001),:,1;,02219780000000001989010000000197900000000019900100000001980000100000199101000000019810001000001992010101000198200010000019930101010001983000100000199401110101119840001000001995011111011198500010100119961111110111986111111011199711111110119871111110111998111111111198811000000019991111111112,,,,,,,,,∃41∃:(,,,),,,,,,,,,,1,SPSS11.02,(1)12,23456789,(3)1257311153,1,315.73163.67663.6765.73163.67663.6763.92343.58543.58521.15312.81376.4891.15312.81376.4892.96132.90476.48930.8459.39285.88140.5255.83191.71250.3153.50595.21760.2142.38297.59970.1181.30998.90880.069410.77199.67990.028890.321100.000:(4)(:1=0.129)+0.170)+0.038)+0.082)-0.015)+0.301)+0.374)+0.202)-0.352)(1)2=0.108)-0.048)+0.209)+0.140)+0.254)-0.157)-0.291)-0.082)+0.580)(2)4,1(0301)(0374)(0202),2(0580)(0254)(0140),12∃42∃200294120.301-0.1570.374-0.2910.1290.108-0.3520.5800.1700.048-0.0150.2540.202-0.0820.0820.1400.0380.209:Varimax(1)(2)(2)2Fac11;Fac22;F12Fac1Fac2,76489%;F1234Fac1Fac2Fac3Fac4∗,91712%:F12=0.63676)Fac1+0.12813)Fac2(3)F1234=0.63676)Fac1+0.12813)Fac2+0.09392)Fac3+0.05831)Fac4(4)2,F12F1234,F12,(FinancialLiberalizationIndexofChina),FLIFLI,1979-1984FLI,1979-1984,,,FLI1986~1987,19859+,!∀,!∀,1986!∀−,!∀!∀!∀!∀19861,5,,,,,,!∀,1987,...,...,,,,!∀1986~1988,∃43∃:,1988FLI,80!∀,,!∀,!∀,!∀,!,∀,!,∀,1988,,!∀,,1988,,1993,FLI,1996,1992,,,199311+,/19966,288,,12,,,1997,,,1998,,,,FLI1998~1999FLI,,,+,+,+,+,+,,,1998,1,!∀;3,,13%8%;5,10,10%20%,40%50%1998,,199931999,;8,,;10,;12,...20002,,2FLI,,,,,,,∃44∃20029(),2,,,,00,,,,,,2080,,,,,:1998AsliDemingKuntEnricaDetragiache1980-199553,Logit(2001):+,87-88PatrickHonohan(2001)5,,,,,#Chile,Ghana,Indonesia,Korea,Malaysia,Mexico,Turkey,Zimbabwe.&Bandiera(1998)!∀∋(FinancialMarketing),!∀!∀,!∀,!∀;,,,,,!∀!∀,!∀!∀(,(1)(0),∗Fac3Fac4−!∀:1;2,;3;4/:1;2,,;3:[1]AlciaAdser,CarlesBoix,MarkPayne(2001).AreYouBeingServed?PoliticalAccountabilityandtheQualityofGovernment[R].InterAmericanDevelompmentBankResearchDepartment.WorkingPaper438.[2]PatrickHonohan(2001).FinancialLiberalization:HowFar?HowFast?[R].DraftConceptPaperforResearchProject.[3]Quinn,DennisP.(1997).TheCorrelatesofChangeinInternationalFinancialRegulation[J]AmericanPolitical∃45∃:ScienceReview91(September).[4]HyeokYongKwon(2001).EconomicConstraints,PartisanHegemony,andtheWelfareStateintheOECD[R].Paperpreparedfordeliveryatthe2001AnnualMeetingoftheAmericanPoliticalScienceAssociation,SanFrancisco,August30September2.[5]OrianaBandiera,GerardCaprioJr.,PatrickHononhan,FabioSchiantarelli(1998).DoesFinancialReformRaiseorReduceSavings?[R].WorldBankWorkingPapers,Wps2062.[6]LucLaeven(2000).FinancialLiberalizationandFinancingConstraints:EvidencefromPanelDataonEmergingEconomies[R].WorldBank,Oct2000.[7]ArturoGalindo,FabioSchiantarelli,AndrewWeiss(2002).DoesFinancialLiberalizationImprovetheAllocationofInvestment?MicroEvidencefromDevelopingCountries[R].BostonCollegeWorkingPapersinEconomics.[8]GracielaL.Kaminsky,CarmenM.Reinhart(1998).TheTwinCrises:TheCausesofBankingandBalanceofPaymentsProblems[C].No544inInternationalFinanceDiscussionPapersfromBoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(U.S.).[9]GracielaLauraKaminsky,SergioL.Schmukler(1999).OnBoomsandCrashes:FinancialLiberalizationandStockMarketCysles[R].WorldBank,mimeo,December1999.[10]JohnWilliamsonandMolliMahar(1998).ASurveyofFinanicalLiberalization[J].EssaysinInternationalFinanceNo.211.[11]Jos!AntonioGonzalezAnaya,GreciaM.Marrufo(2001).FinancialMarketPerformanceinMexico[Z].StanfordUniversityCenterforResearchonEconomicDevelopmentandPolicyReform.[12].[M].:,2001.[13].SPSSforWindows[M].:,2000.[14],,,.[M].:,1999.[15].[J].,2001,(11).[16],.:[J].,2001,(4).AMeasurementAnalysisontheMarketofFinanceinChinaLIUYi1,SHENHongrui2(1SchoolofEconomics,BeijingNornalUniversity,Beijing100875,China;2ChinaAcademyofTelecommunicationsTechnology,Beijing100083,China)Abstract:Thepaperintroducesthemeasurementofmarketorientationoffinaceandreviewstheusuallyemployedmeasurementintheliterature.Forthefirsttimeinhistory,weestablishanindexsystemofmarketorientationoffinanceinChinabyusingprincipalcomponentanaly