全球农药市场发展和趋势分析(XXXX-03)

IndustryPresentationMarch2010©PhillipsMcDougall1TheGlobalCropProtectionMarketIndustryProspects全球作物保护市场行业展望InternationalForumonAgrochemicalMarketDevelopmentMarch15th,2010ShanghaiEverbrightHotel中国农药工业发展国际论坛2010.3.15上海光大酒店PhillipsMcDougallVineyardBusinessCentreSaughlandPathheadMidlothianEH375XPTel:[e-mail]arch2010©PhillipsMcDougall2MarketPerformance20092009年市场绩效(Distributorlevel–averageexchangerates-NominalUS$)(分销商等级–平均汇率-美元)Year年CropProtection作物保护Non-CropAgrochemicalsGMSeedConventionalSeed($m)非作物保护农药($m)转基因种子($m)常规种子($m)199828995140514559199928090191520002783021951426920012576027781359720022515042703140130602003267104445370913521200430725467544761452420053119049055095146572009/2008%-6.4+3.620063042551505855144852007333905365706214648+15.52008404755655915016870Agrochemicals(农药)=$43,7400-5.2%-4.2Seed(种子)=$26,7300+2.7%2009Preliminary2009年粗略3788058601057016160IndustryPresentationMarch2010©PhillipsMcDougall3MarketDevelopmentSince19941994~2009年市场发展情况0500010000150002000025000300003500040000450001994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009$mCropProtectionConventionalSeedNonCropAgBio作物保护常规种子非作物生物农药IndustryPresentationMarch2010©PhillipsMcDougall4RegionalCropProtectionMarketDevelopment地区作物保护市场情况0200040006000800010000120001400019901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009$mNAFTAEuropeAsiaLatinAmericaAfrica/MiddleEast欧洲北美自由贸易区拉丁美洲非洲及中东亚洲IndustryPresentationMarch2010©PhillipsMcDougall5TopTwentyCountryMarkets–DollarGrowth2008/2003(%p.a.)前20名国家市场情况–2003~2008年美元增长率(%p.a.)Source(来源):PhillipsMcDougallAgriService0.05.010.015.020.025.0RussiaBrazilHungaryPolandChinaGermanyCanadaIndiaArgentinaFranceItalyNetherlandsSpainColombiaUKMexicoJapanKoreaAustraliaUSA美国澳大利亚韩国日本墨西哥英国哥伦比亚西班牙荷兰意大利法国阿根廷印度加拿大德国中国波兰匈牙利巴西俄罗斯IndustryPresentationMarch2010©PhillipsMcDougall6AgrochemicalMarketDevelopmentbySector各类农药市场发展情况020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200001990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008HerbicidesOthersAgBioFungicidesInsecticides$m除草剂杀虫剂生物农药其他杀菌剂IndustryPresentationMarch2010©PhillipsMcDougall7-0.5-3.0-1.6-0.52.24.33.72.10.1-5.7-1.0-6.8-5.0-1.64.7-2.5-6.52.810.2-0.4-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.019901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009CropProtectionMarketRealGrowth1990-20091990~2009年作物保护市场实际升幅ImprovedCropPrices粮食价格上升Europe,5%set-aside欧洲5%农田休耕政策LAMRecovery/AsianRust拉美洲经济恢复/亚洲锈病ExcellentAgyearintheUSA美国农业丰收年EU‘CAP’Reform欧盟共同农业政策改革GMCrops转基因作物WeakCropCommodityPrices作物粮食价格疲软ReducedSupport农业政策支持的减少LAM/AsianEconomiesWeak拉美/亚洲经济减退StrongCommodityPricesImprovedweatherBiofuels/HighoilpricesRecoveryinBrazilElNinoFreedomtoFarmGATT美国农业自由法案关税和贸易总协定GMCropExpansion转基因作物扩张WeakerCommodityPrices商品价格疲软Adverseweather恶劣天气EnergyPrices能源价格Brazilianeconomy巴西经济LowerCommodityPrices商品价低Reducedoilprices油价降低Globaleconomicdownturn全球经济衰退Lowerglyphosateprices草甘膦价低Distributorinventory分销商库存商品价格高适宜气候生物燃料/油价高巴西粮食出口收入的恢复IndustryPresentationMarch2010©PhillipsMcDougall8Planting–ChangeinArea(%)种植面积的变化BrazilBrazilBrazilArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaUSACanadaEU-15EU-272007/82008/92009/102007/82008/92009/102009200920092009Wheat3.531.11.00.2-13.6-32.4-5.30.6-3.7-2.7Maize3.4-2.3-4.611.7-16.0-9.41.22.2-4.4-2.4Soybean1.6-0.33.42.87.01.12.31.212.19.4Sunflower16.511.7-23.7-22.6-16.6n.a.13.26.2OilseedRapen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.-16.2-3.13.71.4Cotton-0.5-20.6-7.518.0n.a.n.a.-4.4n.a.n.a.n.a.小麦玉米大豆向日葵棉花油菜巴西2007/2008巴西2008/2009巴西2009/10阿根廷2007/2008阿根廷2008/2009阿根廷2009/10美国2009加拿大2009欧盟-152009欧盟-272009IndustryPresentationMarch2010©PhillipsMcDougall9KeyFactors20102010年影响农药市场的主要因素CropPrices作物的价格§WheatfuturespositiveinUSA,butweakinEurope美国小麦期货上涨，而欧洲小麦期货疲软§Soybeanpricessoftening大豆价格疲软§Ricesustainedduetoincreasingdemand由于需求不断增加，水稻价格不变Biofuelssustaincropdemand生物燃料的生产使对作物的需求不变§MaizeintheUSA美国玉米§RapeinEurope欧洲油菜§SugarcaneinBrazil巴西甘蔗§CanolainCanada加拿大油菜§OilPalminIndonesiaandMalaysia印尼和马来西亚棕榈§SwitchgrassandJatropha–potentialformarketexpansion柳枝稷和麻疯树市场有增加的潜力StrengthofBrazilfarmeconomy–Weakercropprices,butRealweakeragainstthedollarGovernmentsupportforbiofuelsvis-a-visoilprices政府支持生物燃料Highcerealstocksresultinginlowerprices谷物贮存量多导致其价格低§ReductioninEU-15grainarea欧盟-15谷物种植面积减少§OpportunityforCentralandeastEuropeduetolowercostofproductionandprocessing，IncreasedGMAreas转基因作物种植面积增加§BrazilandAsia巴西和亚洲§NewStackedTraitacceptance新混合基因改造作物被接受Energycostsremainhigh,concernsoverpriceandsupplyofphosphatefertilisers能源成本居高不下，关注磷肥的价格和供应Re-registrationandproductavailabilityintheEUEU欧洲农药产品的再登记和产品的选择性减少2009AgrochemicalpricerisesinJapanshiftedsalestopreincreaseperiod,maybenefit2010§Maizefuturesimproving玉米期货上涨Variableoilpriceaffectingcropcommodityprices不稳定的油价影响农作物商品的价格Inventoryproblems,increasedGMarea库存问题，转基因作物种植面积增加§USmaizeandsoybeanfungicideusagedependantoncropprices美国玉米和大豆杀菌剂的使用依赖于粮食的价格Europe:higher2009agrochemicalpricesunlikelytobesustainablein20102010年欧洲不会继续2009高价位农药Asiabenefitsfromstrongriceprice,andsustainedfooddemandin