外资进入中国重型载货车市场的前景分析

上海交通大学硕士学位论文外资进入中国重型载货车市场的前景分析姓名：丁伟玲申请学位级别：硕士专业：工业工程指导教师：仰书纲;彭作和20070501-I-809023-II-AAASWOT,ABSTRACT-I-ANALYSISONTHEFOREIGNDIRECTINVESTMENTINTHECHINESEHEAVYCARRYINGVEHICLEMARKETABSTRACTTomakemoreprofitandavoidthecompressivestressofthelowincreasingrateofthedevelopedcountries’heavycarryingvehiclemarket,mostheavycarryingvehiclemanufacturecompanystarttoinvestigatethedevelopingChineseheavycarryingvehiclemarket.AfteranalyzingtheChinesegeneraleconomicdevelopmentstatus,thepaperusestheIndexSmoothingMethodtoclarifyouttheChineseheavycarryingvehicledevelopmenttrend.Toanalyzinghowmuchtheroomkeepsforthenewmarketenters,thepaperalsodoesadepthcompetitionstatusanalysisoftheChineseheavycarryingvehiclemarket.Itidentifiesthatalthoughthecompetitionisrigor,thereisroomABSTRACT-II-forthenewmarketentrant.ToanalyzingiftheforeigncompanyhavethesuperiorityinenteringChineseheavycarryingvehiclemarket,thepaperuseAAAcompanyastheexample,throughtheSWOT(Strengths,Weakness,OpportuniesandThreats)methodanalyzing,thepaperdrawaconclusionthatitisfeasibilityforagoodpreparedforeignheavycarryingvehiclecompaniesdirectlyinvestintoChineseheavycarryingvehiclemarketdespitetheyhavemissedthebestopportunityforenteringtheChinesemarket.KEYWORDS:foreigndirectinvestment(FDI),heavycarryingvehicle,IndexSmoothingMethod,SWOTmethod-1-1.1WTO1999199920032003200456782004449820052005423980201031639111023948620%876.59%296481336741324746.84%5.53%1)GDP2)20052005,200519118025.9267-2-3)GB1589GB72584)19985)6)CPI5.3%7)8)20041.21.2.1ForeignDirectInvestment,FDI)(Hymer,1960),(Kindleberger,1969,1975)(Vernon,1966,19i4)Buckley&Casson,1976)(Kojima,1978)(Dunning,1977,1981)-3-()1.2.220012003,.,),:-4-1978::FDIFDIWTO::2005;-5-1.31.3.1,,,.,,,.,,.1.3.2.,,.().:GB/T3730.1-88114261431.8641.82005-6-=++1581581.41.4.1:,.1.4.2,,,..-7-602.1MonpolisticAdvantageTheory2.1.119331960(S.Hymer)C.P.Kindleberger-2.1.212342.1.3-8-123452.1.42.2RaymondVernon-9-1974-10-2.3(TheTheoryofInternalization)70PeterBukleyMarkCasson)AlianMRugman)1.2.3.1.2.3.4.-11-2.4TheTheoryofComparativeAdvantageKiyoshiKojima70123206070-12-20802.5TheEclecticTheoryofInternationalProductionJohnHDunning1977601231.2.3.-13-BartlettandGhoshal20802070-14-3.1,GDPGDP1%16%GDP19902005Ks-4.010(KsKs/GDP)GDP1001.53.22005GDP)1823219.9%88604200425.7%0.920041.8%8.3%4.9%9.8%5.5%12%2005GDP33.3%1[1]-15-13.3200340%20058860425.7%20040.97509627.2%18.0%27.5%26.6%20040.115.12[1]-16-23.4200512421192832047119020911338-17-33.52306.520062007,GDP8%10%,30%,,2005-18-,,,,,20022004-19-4.11953715531953198219849118831993198530T19T13.5T1985-ND15T1988198420031989200220032002200320012002384-20-44.2EQ320870%134~156KWS35S29,194~268KWCA1200EQ1208CQ19WTO2004-21-(1)GB1589-2004,.(2)2000200420052030(3),(4)20708050%70%80%30%(5)20014.3,GDPGDP19902005Ks-0.53.5Ks-4.010(Ks-22-Ks/GDP)(IFA)GDPIFAGDP3102079188.56.81.7505067140488130200511135.7200418.2%1112004236693.57TEUGB1589-2004GB1589-2004()2005GB1589-2004GB1589-20044.4-23-5[6]55~1010~154~510~205102504.4.15~1015~30-24-1-(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)Ft=Ft-1+(At-1-Ft-1)4-1FttFt-1t-1At-1t-1forecastincludingtrend,FITFITt=Ft+Tt(4-2)Ft=FITt-1+(At-1FITt-1)(4-3)Tt=Tt-1+(FtFITt-1)(4-4)-25-FttTttFITttFITt-1t-1At-1t-14.4.21993200419992004200436.837.072005860100,000200,000300,000400,00047,07481,950157,070252,545261,768368,803227,000276,22947,78582,869146,985245,401255,755370,795237,000278,253199920002001200220032004200520066,,,=0.3.,.,-26-19992000200120022003200420052006()4883147245256371237278:20061~11.19992004,50,,=0.3=0.7,0.3,FIT2000=A1999=48(),(4-2)(4-3):=0.3,F2001=FIT2000+(A2000-FIT2000)=48+0.3*(83-48)=58.5T2001=T2000+(F2001-FIT2000)=50+0.3*(58.5-48)=53.15FIT2001=F2001+T2001=111.65=0.7,F2001=FIT2000+(A2000-FIT2000)=48+0.7*(83-48)=72.5T2001=T2000+(F2001-FIT2000)=50+0.3*(72.5-48)=57.35FIT2001=F2001+T2001=129.85-27-=0.3=0.77:719992000200120022003200420052006()4883147245256371237278α=0.3111.65178.79260.82321.25402.53404.32α=0.7129.85193.89272.72329.69407.79406.8911Fig1TheforecastoftheChineseHeavyCarryingVehicleRequirement200520062005050100150200250300350400450200120022003200420052006a=0.3a=0.7-28-37199819992005130200520062001~2004=0.3=0.7=0.7200120022004=0.3=0.3=0.74.519992004200530-29--30-5.18[7]20058200520058-128-12,2003;2003,,,5,32003-31-6,,104.5,2003,15t20042005,812t,15t15t,200321012,20044,12,200,,,,,,BC,,,,4,,,5,,,,,,,891.6%8-12,4-32-5.22003260hp2003260hp152003()QCD2003D31015151515()()1519832000-33-15HOWOMANF2000()20022002200420063ETX42080%2004CAMC()5000GALLOP200320054-34-90-1995198920022005600020022002ABC20104.5201010%()()10%5.3-35-6.12080200013880200141%81762002678820035596199832004648020032%9[8]2004233040%20001/391996-2004-36-2:21996-2004Fig.21996-2004Thewordwideforeigndirectinvestmentdevelopmentdirection200120032004436641534.79606.302003629%33.3%13.3%20042005157002005111396791.17%1672.1223.99%531.271.90%10[8]1979199230%1992199360%2190%-37-101996-20046.2304030,50601450625298-38-8090565199020002560()21022.537.781.2721809023-39-6.36.3.119831217,-,,70,83,,10,()201585%90/110/20036.3.2-40-200370~8015SWOT-41-SWOT7.1SWOTSWOTSWOTSWOTSWOTS(strengths),W(weak