轿车细分市场中产品线定位的影响因素分析

白让让,200433:从市场结构企业能力和细分市场进入或定位的理论假设出发,基于1999年~2006年中国轿车产业和企业的微观数据,运用文献回顾经验观察和Logit计量模型工具,结合本土企业与外资企业的行为比较,分析影响细分市场进入的主要因素研究结果表明,细分市场的集中度越高企业的进入激励越小,企业总体占有率提高后会选择向下扩展产品线,合资企业和本土企业的细分市场定位有显著差异,相互进入会导致产品线的重叠和竞争的恶化,本土企业在实施品牌延伸战略时应避免过早全序列化模式对品牌声誉和市场份额的侵蚀:产品线;细分市场;定位;Logit模型;轿车产业:F270:A:1672-0334(2010)01-0002-08:2009-09-11:2010-01-17:(70772106):(1967-),,,,,,:Emai:[e-mail]1,,,,2006~2007,,,,,;,2,2.1LancasterQuelch,,[1,2];JohnsonBranderPutsis,,,,[3~5];Draganska,,[6];Vlckner[7];Horsky,,[8];Klemperer,[9];Shankar23120102ISSN1672-0334JournalofManagementScienceVo.l23No.12-9February,2010,[10];Thomadsen,,[11]2.2Bordley,,[12];Toivanen,,[13];Chintagunta,,[14];Bayus,,[15,16];Shankar,[10];Meyer,[17],,[18,19];[20];[21];[22],,33.1,Bayus[15],,1,(1),,--,,,,1Figure1TheAnalysisStructureoftheProductLinePositioninSegmentMarket(2),4,,,1(),2,3,,3.2,,,MPVSUV,1998,,1999~2006,,,,131:1Table1DefinitionandComputeMethodoftheMainlyVariablesENTRYijt1,0HHIjtSHAREitNATIVEi1,0AGEitSQAGEit3.3Logit,LogitProbit,Jeffrey[23],Prob(ENTRYijt)=1itj;Prob(ENTRYijt)=0itj,,LogitProb(ENTRYijt=1|x)=G(0+1HHIjt+2SHAREit+3NATIVEi+4AGEit+5SQAGEit+i),x;0~5;G0~1,z,0G(z)1,0~1;iLogit,G,G(z)=exp(z)1+exp(z)=(z)LogitProbit,,Logit4,,,4.1,,,21999~2006,1999~2002,,,,2003,30%,,,70%,2Table2ChangesoftheFirmandBrandintheDistributionofSegmentMarket(%)(%)199934.4820.6937.936.9046.1546.1546.157.69200024.2430.3036.369.0940.0033.3340.006.67200124.0036.0030.0010.0042.1147.3731.5815.79200221.0550.8831.5810.5340.9136.3640.9118.18200312.6346.3233.6814.7437.0474.0744.4418.52200410.9143.6437.277.2741.3868.9755.1724.14200511.1142.7440.178.5537.9375.8651.7220.6920068.8444.6535.818.3737.8470.2754.0521.624(JournalofManagementScience)20102,2107,,10,35%10%;7,100,,3,()3,,,,,,,4,()34,,,,,,,3Table3TheDistributionoftheNativeandJointventureinSegmentMarket(%)(%)199971.4328.5728.570.0016.6733.3366.6716.67200057.1428.5714.290.0018.1818.1836.369.09200166.6733.3311.110.0016.6741.6741.6725.00200254.5545.459.090.0025.0066.6750.0033.33200354.5563.6427.279.0920.0066.6753.3340.00200469.2353.8523.080.0020.0080.0073.3340.00200569.2353.8530.770.0018.7581.2562.5037.50200656.2562.5031.250.0016.6772.2283.3333.334Table4TheDistributionofBrandbetweentheNativeandJointventure(%)(%)199957.1414.2928.570.0015.3823.0846.1515.38200045.4527.2718.180.0021.4328.5764.2921.43200137.5016.6716.670.009.0939.3933.3315.15200242.8628.5714.290.008.1143.2432.4316.22200320.6958.6220.693.4510.7141.0742.8610.71200428.9547.3715.790.004.1740.2844.449.72200527.0343.2421.620.003.4536.7841.3811.49200618.4647.6927.690.003.4241.7840.4110.9651:4.2LogitLogit,,,JeffreyLogit[23],exp(i),,(1),Logit,,EWIEWS5.15,54R2,,40,,()LR,1%,Logit,,(500),Wald,,z5,,,(2)1,Chintagunta[14]HHIj,3,,,5LogitTable5TheResultoftheLogitModel(z)(z)(z)(z)HHIj0.000(0.500)-0.001***(-4.603)-0.000***(-3.017)-2.389**(-2.171)SHAREi-12.481***(-2.327)18.467***(3.735)22.263***(3.828)11.946***(2.758)***NATIVEi1.881***(4.592)0.038(0.103)-1.239***(-3.306)-3.254***(-3.119)AGEi0.550***(4.036)0.030(0.291)-0.186*(-1.540)-0.136(-0.953)SQAGEi-0.022***(-3.274)-0.005(-0.942)0.008*(1.278)0.001(0.121)-3.547***(-4.443)1.066***(2.292)0.961**(1.866)0.406(0.586)-87.041-105.377-97.178-61.52474.93342.23656.16646.213LR9.66E155.28E087.51E118.22E090.3010.1670.2240.2738.29914.93621.0344.2240.4050.0600.0070.836注:被解释变量(ENTRY)为企业是否进入某细分市场;***为在10%的显著性水平下显著,**为在5%的显著性水平下显著,*为在1%的显著性水平下显著6(JournalofManagementScience)20102(3)2,,,,,,,,,(4)3,(),,,,,,[6],,3,,180%,Logit4.3,HosmerLemeshowLogit,(10),G2!2,!25HL,0.05,,,,30.007,0.05,Logit,,,,-,EWIES5.166Table6MatrixoftheErrorENTRY=0ENTRY=1(%)ENTRY=0932883.78ENTRY=1184662.1675.14ENTRY=0441156.41ENTRY=1349789.8175.81ENTRY=0742774.00ENTRY=1265567.0770.88ENTRY=01432695.33ENTRY=17618.7581.870.5,47514%75.81%70.88%81.87%,,(634)ENTRY=0,0.593,ENTRY=1,46,,34.4,,--,,3(1),,,71:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4010%(2),,,,,,,,,,(3),,,,,,5Logit,,(),;,;,:[1]LancasterK.Variety,EquityandEfficiency[M].NewYork:ColumbiaUniversityPress,1979.[2]QuelchJA,KennyD.ExtendProfit,NotProductLines[J].HarvardBusinessRewiew,1994,72(5):153-160.[3]JohnsonJP,MyattDP.OntheSimpleEconomicsofAdvertising,Marketing,andProductDesign[J].AmericanEconomicReview,2006,96(3):756-784.[4]BranderJ,EatonJ.ProductLineRivalry[J].AmericanEconomicReview,1984,74(3):323-334.[5]PutsisW.AnEmpiricalStudyoftheEffectofBrandProliferationonPrivateNationalBrandPricingBehavior[J].ReviewofIndustryOrganization,1997,12(3):355-371.[6]DraganskaM,JainDC.ProductLineLengthasaCompetitiveTool[J].JournalofEconomicsandManagementStrategy,2005,14(1):1-28.[7]VlcknerF,SattlerH.DriversofBrandExtensionSuccess[J].JournalofMarketing,2006,70(2):18-34.[8]HorskyJ,NelsonP.NewBrandPositingandPricinginanOligopolisticbetweenMarketLeadersandFollowers[J].ManagementScience,1992,38(2):276-292.[9]KlempererP.CompetitionWhenConsumerHaveSwitchingCosts:AnOverviewwithApplicationstoIndustrialOrganization,Macroeconomics,andInternationalTrade[J].ReviewofEconomicStudies,1995,62(4):515-539.[10]ShankarV.ProactiveandReactiveProductLineStrategies:AsymmetriesbetweenMarketsLeardersandFollower[J].M