一个新的销量预测模型

91Vol.9No.12000SYSTEMSENGINEERING-THEORYMETHODOLOGYAPPLICATIONS2000:100522542(2000)012083206(),,1999527,1291,,,,,2x(),Gx()Gx:G=G(x)=f(x)+k(M(x)-m(x))õG(x)+E(x)(1):f(x);G(x);M(x)m(x);E(x);xE(x)N(0,R2);k(x,G)(1),E(G)=y,:y=f(x)+k(M(x)-m(x))õG(x)(2)(2)3(2),xhxi(i=1,2,,n;,xi=i);xiGyi(i=1,2,,n);G(x)thnt,wn=tw(xi,yi)(i=1,2,,n):(1)yqtl+t2=1ttj=1ytl+j(l=0,1,2,,w-1),yqtl+t2(l=0,1,2,,w-1),f(x)(2):yzj=1ww-1t=0{ytl+j-f(xtl+j)}(j=1,2,3,,t),g(x)g(x),G(x)=gx-thxthG(x)(3):k=1ömax{g(x)}-min{g(x)},k(4):ytl+j3=max{ytl+jöj=1,2,,t}(l=0,1,,w-1),ytl+j3(l=0,1,,w-1),M(x),M(x)(5):ytl+j3=min{ytl+jöj=1,2,,t}(l=0,1,,w-1),ytl+j3(l=0,1,,w-1),m(x),m(x)(1)(5):y=f(x)+k(M(x)-m(x))õG(x)M(x)-f(x)=c1,f(x)-m(x)=c2(c1,c2)(3)(5)y=f(x)+G(x)(6)R2Rd2=1nni=1{yi-f(xi)-k(M(xi)-m(xi))õG(xi)}2(7)yqtl+t2(l=0,1,,w-1)yzj(j=1,2,3,,t)ytl+j3(l=0,1,,w-1)ytl+j3(l=0,1,,w-1),f(x),G(x),M(x),m(x)45(1),(xi,yi)(i=13,13,,72):h=1;t=12;xi=i(i=13,14,,72)(1):yq18=11224i=13yi=55.8,yq30=11236i=25yi=68.2,yq42=11248i=37yi=80.2yq54=11260i=49yi=92.3,yq66=11272i=61yi=104.3R1=0.97;A=0.01R3(A)=0.95873R1;:f(x)=1.01x+38.01=x+384820001119921996(:)1992xiyi1993xiyi1994xiyi1995xiyi1996xiyi11311125301374514958161712143922654238672507926292315603277533984351963631084167542985440964521084641205178452993541104553116565126618876309764210865411966613071986731957431067551177671298207883290844100856112868124921669337894590957102969114102249103463104675105887107010011232811354311475611596911718112242123618124832126046127259:xi,yi(2)yz1=155k=1(y12k+1-f(x12k+1))=-32,yz3=155k=1(y12k+3-f(x12k+3))=7,yz5=155k=1(y12k+5-f(x12k+5))=25,yz7=155k=1(y12k+7-f(x12k+7))=26,yz9=155k=1(y12k+9-f(x12k+9))=7,yz11=155k=1(y12k+11-f(x12k+11))=-31,yz2=155k=1(y12k+2-f(x12k+2))=-10yz4=155k=1(y12k+4-f(x12k+4))=18yz6=155k=1(y12k+6-f(x12k+6))=28yz8=155k=1(y12k+8-f(x12k+8))=19yz10=155k=1(y12k+10-f(x12k+10))=-9yz12=155k=1(y12k+12-f(x12k+12))=-54,,l11=12i=1x2i-12(xq)2=143l12=l21=12i=1x2iõxi-12xqõx2=1859l22=12i=1x4i-12(x2)2=25500l1y=12i=1xiyzi-xqõ12i=1yzi=-309582000l2y=12i=1x2iõyzi-x212i=1yzi=-7133:xi=i(i=13,14,,72);xk=11212i=1ki(k=1,2,3,4)143B1^+1859B2^=-3091859B1^+25500B2^=-7133:B1^=28.228,B2^=-2.3376B0^=11212i=1yzi-B1^õxq-B2^õx2=-56.96Se=ST-SR=7945-B1^l1y-B2^l2y=6.6F=SRöpSeö(n-p-1)=7945ö36.6ö(12-3-1)=3210.1A=0.01,F0.99(3,8)=7.593210.1:g(x)=-56.96+28.228x-2.3376x2-2.34{(x-6)2-12}A=0.01g(x),:G(x)=-2.34x-12x12-62-12[](3)max{g(x)}=g(6)=2.3412;min{g(x)}=g(12)=-2.3424;k=1max{g(x)}-min{g(x)}=12.3436(4):max13i24{yi}=y18=y183=87,max25i36{yi}=y30=y303=97max37i48{yi}=y42=y423=108,max49i60{yi}=y54=y543=118max61i72{yi}=y66=y663=129R2=0.98A=0.01R3(A)=0.95873R2:M(x)=1112x+74(5):min13i24{yi}=y24=y243=2,min25i36{yi}=y36=y363=18min37i48{yi}=y48=y483=32,min49i60{yi}=y60=y603=46min61i72{yi}=y72=y723=59R3=0.98R3(0.01)Fm(x)=1312x-206820001(6):y=x+38+136x6-94õx-12x12-62-12(7)R2Rd2=16072i=13yi-f(xi)-k(M(xi)-m(xi))õG(xi)2=16072i=13yi-xi-38-136xi6-94õxi-12xi12-62-122=3.04318Rd=1.4640:y3=x+38+136x6-94x-12x12-62-12+1.4642y3=x+38+136x6-94x-12x12-62-12-1.4642y3y3(x)-(-2)=0.9544(8)f(x),M(x),m(x)y=f(x)+k(M(x)-m(x))G(x)117820005;,[1]..:,1975.[2]..:,1981.[3],,..:1988.ANewSalesVolumeForecastModelBaoXianglin(SchoolofManagement,ShanghaiJiaotongUniversity,Shanghai200052)AbstractInthisarticleanewsalesvolumeforecastmodelissetup.Thismodelhashighforecastaccuracyifthecommoditiessalesvolumechangehasahighrelationwithseason.Thepapernotonlygivesawayofevaluatingmodelsmainparameterbutalsogivesanex2ampleofsettingupamodel.Keywords:salesvolumeregressionmodelseason(82)AStudyonDMU’sCross-EvaluationandItsApplicationXuChenglongWuJianzhong(TheinstituteofsystemsEngineering,ShanghaiJiaoTongUniversity)AbstractConventionalDEAmodelmaybecalledDecisionMakingUnitsSelf2EvaluationModel(DSEM).BasedonDSEM,theDMU’sCross2EvaluationModel(DCEM)ispre2sentedinthispaper.DCEMcandifferentiatedecisionprojectsindetail,anditprovidesscientificbasisfortheselectionofdecisionprojects.Keywords:decisionmakingunitsself2evaluationcross2evaluationprojectsselection8820001