60-second-adventures-in-Economics(60秒读懂经济学概念)

60secondadventuresinEconomicsNumberone:TheInvisibleHandAneconomyisatrickythingtocontrol,andgovernmentsarealwaystryingtofigureouthowtodoit.Backin1776economistAdamSmithshockedeveryonebysayingthatwhatgovernmentsshouldactuallydoisjustleavepeoplealonetobuyandsellfreelyamongthemselves.Hesuggestedthatiftheyjustleaveself-interestedtraderstocompetewithoneanother,marketsareguidedtopositiveoutcomes”asifbyaninvisiblehand”.Ifsomeonechargeslessthanyoucustomerswillbuyfromtheminsteadasyouhavetolowerthepriceoroffersomethingbetter.Whereverenoughpeopledemandsomething,theywillbesuppliedbythemarketlikespoiltchildrenonlyinthiscase,everyoneishappy.Laterfree-marketeerslikeAustrianeconomistFriedrichHayek,arguedthatthis“handsoff”approachactuallyworksbetterthananykindofcentralplan.Buttheproblemis,economiescantakealongtimetoreachtheir”equilibrium”,andmayevenstallalongtheway.Andinthemeantimepeoplecangetalittlefrustrated,whichiswhygovernmentsusuallyenduptakingthingsintotheirownmorevisiblehandsinstead.Number2:TheParadoxofThriftMuchlikeachildgettinghispocketmoney,oneofthebiggesteconomicquestionsisstillwhetherit’sbettertosaveorspend.Free-marketeerslikeHayekandMiltonFriedmansaythat,evenindifficulttimes,it’sbesttobethriftyandsave.Bankthenchannelthesavingsintoinvestment,innewplants,skillsandtechniquesthatletusproducemore.Andevenifthisnewtechnologydestroysjobs,wageswilldrop,andbusinesseshiremorepeoplesounemploymentfallsagain.Simple.Atleastinthelongrun.Butthena“live-fast-die-young”kindachapcalledJohnMaynaedKeynescheerfullypointedoutthat“inthelongrunwe’realldead”.So,toavoidthemiseryofunemployment,thegovernmentshouldinsteadspendmoneytocreatejobs.Whereasifthegovernmenttightensitsbeltwhenpeopleandbusinessesaredoingthesame,lessisspent,sounemploymentgetsevenworse.Thatistheparadoxofthrift.Soinsteadtheyshouldspendnowandtaxlaterwheneveryone’happytopay.ThoughmakingpeoplehappytopaytaxwassomethingevenKeynesdidn’tsolve.NumberThree:ThePhillipsCurve.BillPhillipswascrocodilehunterandeconomistfromNewZealand,whospottedthat,whenemploymentlevelsarehigh,wagesrisefasterpeoplehavemoremoneytospend,sopricesgoupandsodoesinflation.Andlikewise,thenunemploymentishigh,thelackofmoneytospendmeansthatinflationgoesdown.ThisbecameknownasthePhillipsCurve.Governmentsevensetpolicybythecurve,toleratingtheinflationwhentheyspentextramoneycreatingjobs.Buttheyforgotthattheworkerscouldalsoseetheeffectsofthecurve.So,whenunemploymentwentdown,theyexpectedinflationanddemandedhigherwages,causingunemploymenttogobackup,whileinflationremainedhigh.Whichiswhathappenedinthe1970swhenbothinflationandunemploymentrose.Theninthe90s,umploymentdroppedwhileinflationstayedlow,whichallrathertookthebendoutofPhillips’curve.ButatleastpartofPhillips’troublesometrade–offliveson:whenfastergrowthandfullemploymentreturn.Youcanbetinflationwillbealongtospoiltheparty.NumberFour:ThePrincipleofComparativeAdvantage.Whetheryouthinktheeconomiesworkbestifthey’releftalone,orthatgovernmentsneedtodosomethingtogetthemworking,theonethingthatcan’tbecontrolledistherestoftheworld.Fearofforeigncompetitiononceledcountriestotryandproduceeverythingtheyneeded,andimposeheavytaxestokeepoutforeigngoods.However,economistDavidRicardoshowedthatinternationaltradewouldactuallymakeeveryonebetteroff,bringinginoneofthefirstgreateconomicmodels.Hepointedoutthat,evenifacountrycanproduceprettymucheverythingatthelowestpossiblecost,withwhateconomistscallan“absoluteadvantage”,it’sstillbettertofocusontheproductsitcanmakemostefficiently.Thatsacrificetheleastamountofothergoods,andlettherestoftheworlddothesame.Byspecializing,theycanthenexportthesesurplusestoeachotherandbothendupbetteroff.Thisistheprincipleofcomparativeadvantages,andithaspersuadedmanycountriestosignuptofree-tradeagreements,butunfortunately,ittakelongtimeforcountriestotradetheirwaytoprosperity.Andbecauseit’smucheasiertomovetowherethemoneyis,itincreasinglynotonlygoodsthatcrossborders,butpeoplewhichhassomewhatuprootedRicardo’theory.NumberFive:TheImpossibleTrinity.Mostcountiestradewithoneanother,whichisusuallyprettygoodforallinvolved,butitdoesmeanit’sabigharderforeachtokeepcontrolofitsownfinances.Therearethreethingsthatgovernmentsareparticularlykeepon.Theyliketokeeptheexchangeratestable,sothatimportandexportpricesdon’tsuddenlyjumparound.Theyalsoliketocontrolinterestrates,sotheycankeepborrowershappy,withoutupsettingsavers.Andtheylikemoneyflowinandoutoftheircountry,withoutcausingtoomuchdisruption.Butthere’saproblem,whenyoutryallofitatonce.Sayforexample,theEurozonetriestoloweritsinterestrate,toboostinvestmentandreduceunemployment.Moneyflowsouttoearnhigherinterestrateseverywhere.Exchangerateslow,whichcausesinflation,sotheEurointerestrateisforcedbackupagain.Youcaneitherfixyourexchangerate,andletmoneyflowsfreelyacrossnationalborders,buthavenocontroloveryourinterestrates.Orcontrolyourinterestandexchangerates,butthenyoucan’tstopthecapitalflowinginandout.But,likeanoverzealoustriathlete,youcan’tdoallthreeatonce.NumberSix:RationalChoiceTheory.Ofallthethingstofactorinwhentorunninganeconomy,themosttroublesomei