飞轮电池生产计划的制定.课程设计

１飞轮电池生产计划的制定目录1.市场需求预测2.实际产品的生产工艺路线分析3.生产方式的经济分析和比较4.制定综合生产计划5.生产能力的粗平衡6.制定主生产计划7.制定MRP,CRP8.生产能力的精平衡9.零件工序卡编制10.产品装配工序卡编制２1.市场需求预测（Marketforecast）HistoricalRecord(AggregateDemand)Month1Month2Month3Month4Year19182421Year210202723Year311222926Year4由上表所给的数据作出判断可知市场需求与时间季节因素有关，***SEASONALIZEDTIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING***-----------------------------------------------------------------PROBLEMNAME:Untitled-----------------------------------------------------------------FORECASTSales--------------------------ABSOLUTEYEARSEASONACTUALREGRESSIONSEASONALIZEDERROR119.00017.5338.7660.2341218.00017.98217.9820.0181324.00018.43024.5730.5731421.00018.87922.0251.0252110.00019.3279.6640.3362220.00019.77619.7760.2242327.00020.22426.9660.0342423.00020.67324.1181.118３3111.00021.12110.5610.4393222.00021.57021.5700.4303329.00022.01829.3580.3583426.00022.46726.2120.212-----------------------------------------------------------------SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(80%)YEARSEASONFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND4111.45811.04311.873REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bXWHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIODa=17.0844b=0.4486FORECAST=Y*SEASONALINDEX(i)R=0.942R-SQUARE=0.8872MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST12PERIODS=0.417MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.283MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=-0.131STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=0.605SEASONALINDEX(1)=0.500SEASONALINDEX(2)=1.000SEASONALINDEX(3)=1.333SEASONALINDEX(4)=1.167预测结果如下：Month1234FORECASTyears412243129４2.实际产品的生产工艺路线分析(ProductProcessAnalysis)零件代号零件名称零件材料零件工艺过程leadtimeMLF-11底板Q235-A锻造，车削，钻孔、扩孔1MLF09-02磁环电工纯铁模锻，车削，铣削1MLF-07-05电磁铁内侧夹紧发兰铝合金铸造,车削，精铣，钻孔，扩孔，精车2MLF-12电器定位板铝合金铸造,车削，钻孔，扩孔，1MLF-07-03电磁铁外侧夹紧发兰铝合金铸造,车削，精铣，钻孔，扩孔，精车2MLF-09-01盘片45铸造,车削，铣削，钻孔，扩孔2MLF-07-06电磁铁夹紧装置铝合金铸造,铣削,钻孔，扩孔1MLF-07-04电磁铁铁心DW315-50锻造1MLF-03外壳Q235-A锻造，车削，钻孔、扩孔1MLF-05外转子电Q235-A锻造，焊接，车削，钻孔、扩孔2５机套筒MLF-09-03压环45铸造,车削，铣削，钻孔，扩孔23.生产方式的经济分析与比较(AlternativePlansComparison)Machinecapacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)Assemblecapacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)所以每月最多生产28台。平均每月的需求为：Q=（12+24+31+28）/4=23.75约为24个按均衡式生产，每月生产24个：First，computeforbothplansthenumberworkershired，thenumberofworkerslaidoff，andtheaverageinventoryduringtheyear：1234567AggregateplanMonthAggregatedemandPlannedoutputsWorkersrequiredWorkershiredWorkerslaidoffLevelcapacitywithinventory1122472018224247200331247200429247200Matchingdemand11212360542242472360331318412042929840089101112InventoryaddingorBeginninginventoryEndinginventoryAverageinventoryAverageinventory６subtractionpermonthperyear1210221617.250222222(7)221518.5(5)151012.500000000000000000Next，computetheannualcostsforbothplans：1234567AggregateplanTotalannualnumberofworkershiredTotalannualnumberofworkerslaidoffAverageannualinventoryAnnualhiringandlayoffcostAnnualinventorycarryingcostTotalannualsubtractioncostTotalannualincrementaloperatingcostLevelcapacity01817.251080545106531Matchingdemand4854037200（3+1）*180010920备注：（4）=（1）*10+（2）*60；（5）=（3）*4*79：（7）=（4）+（5）+（6）在matchingdemand生产计划中第三月的需求量超过了本厂的最大生产能力，如若要满足要求需要采用外协或者加班的方式解决。如果采用外协第三月份有31-28=3台需要外协，第四月份有。总的Cost=（3+1)*1800=5400＄再考虑到工人工资，总的费用如下：Costoflevelcapacity=6531+72*4*2*200=121731Costofmatchingdemand=10920+(36+72+84+84)*2*200=121320相差的费用Costofmatchingdemand-Costoflevelcapacity=121320-121731=-411。Matchingdemand比Levelcapacity的花费更少。如果采用加班加班：加班时间600*4=2400，可加班最多时间为25*8*20%*84=3360，加班时间允许每台成本是600*2.5=1500，７外协：每台是1800因为对于matchingdemand中第三月缺3台，第四月缺1台，所以两者共相差（1800-1500）*4=1200综上所述：采用加班方案的费用最少为120120美元，其次是均衡式生产的费用为121731美元，两者相差1611美元，相差不大。1.从预测的数据来看，产品的市场前景是比较好的，环境是比较稳定的。2.市场匹配的生方式使得工厂处于不稳定的状态，总是需要招聘或辞退工人，而且需要加班和外协，不仅使生产变得复杂化，而且公司的生产能力并没用充分利用，同时可能导致工人的工作热情不高，由于新工人经验不足，都会给产品的质量带来一定的负面影响。3.机器的使用状态也是不稳定的，常需要停用一些机器，这样对机器的工作效率也有一定的影响，而均衡式的生产方式恰能弥补这一点，对公司的稳定发展更有益处。故选择均衡式的生产方式4.制定综合生产计划(AggregatePlanning)按市场均衡方式生产1234567AggregateplanMonthAggregatedemandPlannedoutputsWorkersrequiredWorkershiredWorkerslaidoffLevelcapacitywithinventory11224720182242472003312472004292472005.生产能力粗平衡(Rough-CutCapacityPlanning)Monthfinalassemblyhours1234８Production24242424Finalassemblyhours4200420042004200Assemblecapacity(hours4900490049004900Finalmachinehours10200102001020010200Machinecapacity(hours12325123251232512325从上表可以看出FinalassemblyhoursAssemblecapacity(hours)，FinalmachinehoursMachinecapacity(hours)说明生产能力满足要求，不需要加班或者外协。6制定主生产计划(MasterProductionSchedule)LevelCapacity：MasterProductionScheduleMonth1Month2Month3Month41234123412341234Totaldemand12243129Beginninginventory10222214Requiredproduction6666666666666666Endinginventory2222149９7制定MRP,CRP(MaterialRequirementPlanning,CapacityRequirementPlanning)7.1MRP制定各个零件选择用LotForLot的生产方式，用软件POM计算可得：***MATERIALSREQUIREMENTSPLANNING(MRP)***==============================================================================PROBLEMNAME:Untitled==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF001080LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements666