MIT的物流与供应链管理

[e-mail]1.270/ESD.273(Fall2002MW4:00-5:30Rm1-246)Logistics&SupplyChainManagementPROFESSORDAVIDSIMCHI-LEVIUncertaintyinDemandPipelinesIgnitesSupplyNets9thOctober2002byShoumenDatta,ResearchScientistEngineeringSystemsDivision,SchoolofEngineeringExecutiveDirector,ForumforSupplyChainInnovation:Opinionsexpressedinthispresentationarethatoftheauthor.ItdoesnotrepresenttheconsensusopinionofMITasaninstitutionorotherfacultythatmaybedirectlyorindirectlyassociatedwithMITSchoolofEng[e-mail]’sdiscussionUNCERTAINTYURLforpowerpointpresentationCourse1.270/ESD.273[e-mail]2002(announcedtoday,09Oct2002)forhavingintegratedinsightsfrompsychologicalresearchintoeconomicscience,especiallyconcerninghumanjudgmentanddecision-makingunderuncertaintyforhavingestablishedlaboratoryexperimentsasatoolinempiricaleconomicanalysis,especiallyinthestudyofalternativemarketmechanismsDanielKahnemanVernonL.Smith1/2oftheprize1/2oftheprizeUSAandIsraelUSAPrincetonUniversityPrinceton,NJ,USAGeorgeMasonUniversityFairfax,VA,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]:HowwillIlookinthisdress?Retailer:WhatshouldweorderforFall?Manufacturer:What’sthenextdemand?DataminingDataMartRetailersAccessoriesJewelry,ShoesShiseido,CoachHarrod's,M&SGucci,Bally'sGuerlain,PoloUSD,DEMEURO,INRYEN,YUANTRAVELHEALTHEDUCATIONARTS&MUSICCelebrityGalleryWorldHistoryofFashionTheWayWeWoreDataWarehouseBODYSCANeFASHIONEBCB2BAnneKleinLevis,BebeTalbots,AXChina,India,SiamFABRICSUPPLIERSDataWarehouseFABRICBROKERINDEPENDENTDESIGNBROKERGlobalDesignWAREHOUSEMEDIA/POPTailors------------------ContractShopsAmateur'sDesignForumManufacturingTailorBrokerOrderIndividualTailorsOn-callPreferenceSurveySHIPPINGMALLamJuliaRobertsFinancialRETURNCRMDONATESalvationArmyCAREGoodwilleBAYBoutiquesJCPenneyOutletStoresAmateurModelsSHIPPINGERPRETAILERSMACYS,NORDSTROM,BLOOMINGDALESPERSONALPROFILESOFTWAREPERSONALPROFILEA[e-mail]051015201997199920012003CRM$billionCRM$billion1.22.33.75.47.911.516.81997199819992000200120022003CustomerRelationshipManagementEXPECTATIONvsRESULTSource:[e-mail]…….Lackofrule-basedresolution:expectationvsresultFinancialImpactCostofCorrection[e-mail]…….FinancialImpactOpportunitylost:unabletorampupEconomicloss:[e-mail]:[e-mail]:[e-mail]…….CostofCorrectionResources[e-mail]…….SideEffects(undesirable)Tackleonlysymptoms[e-mail]DAPTABILITYtoSENSEandRESPOND(SupplyChainEventmis-Management)•InsulationofPlanningfromExecution•IndividualoptimisationnotSCoptimisation•Smart-HubandDumb-SpokeConfiguration•Isolatio[e-mail]:[e-mail]AdaptiveSource:[e-mail]?•Understandcustomerneed•Monitorsupplyavailability•Managesupplychainpartnerperformance•Decentralizeproblemsolving•Monitorcorrectiveactionsandfeedback•Includ[e-mail]lsandEarlyUsersSource:[e-mail]sSource:HP&[e-mail]…….FinancialImpactOpportunitylost:unabletorampupEconomicloss:[e-mail]……[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]…[e-mail]………[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]………[e-mail],optimizedsupplychainofferslowercostSafetyStockCostvsLeadTimeManagingFinancialCostofUncertaintyMITFo