应用MCM水晶球模型评价国际EPC项目风险-马潇萌

【】MCMEPC1211．7100482．710048EPC、、、、———EPC31．2%26．1%22．4%“”。MCMEPC。EPCMCMX820．4Adoi10．3969/j．issn．1000-1379．2013．11．043SimulationandEvaluationoftheＲiskofInternationalEPCProjectBasedonMCMCrystalBallModelMAXiao-meng1MABin2ZHUJi-wei11．SchoolofCivilandArchitecturalEngineeringXi’anUniversityofTechnologyXi’an710048China2．SchoolofEngineeringTechnologyXijingInstituteXi’an710048ChinaAbstractThispaperestablishedariskevaluationindexsystemmainlyfromtheaspectsofenvironmenttechnologyfinanceschedulecontrolandothersthroughtheidentificationofInternationalEPCProjectＲiskFactors．ThesimulatedevaluationofEPCProject’sriskinEcuadordelwesthy-dropowerstationbasedonMonteCarlosimulationmethodMCM’sthirdpartysoftware—crystalballmodel．Theresultshowsthatthetechnicalrisksaccountfor31．2%operationalrisks26．1%andeconomicrisks22．4%oftheoperationalriskshavingthemaximumnegativeimpactonayeargainsagainsttheriskloss．ItshowsthroughexamplesthattheapplicationofMCMcrystalballmodelisconveniencehighaccuracyapplicabletointernationalEPCprojectriskevaluation．KeywordsinternationalengineeringEPCprojectＲiskMCMMonteCarloSimulationMethodcrystalballmodelEPCEngineerProcureConstruct、、、、、、、。WTO。、、、、。EPC/。EPC。1EPCEPC、。EPC2、5、2311。12012-11-215107912051109175。1988—。[e-mail]·121·3511Vol．35No．11201311YELLOWＲIVEＲNov．20131。EPC、。EPC。2。。、、、。3。、。4。。、、、。5。EPC、。2MCM、、MonteCarloMethodMCM、42。2．1MCM2040。3－41000。。。2．2。ExcelExcelExcel。Excel。5。WindowsExcelExcel。2。2。①②③。3EPC3．1ZamoraChinchipeLoja20kmZamora12km。SanFranciscoSabanillaZamora。Monkeys940mSabanilla3kmZamora。Zamora。115．332MW8．97kW·h257．66MW498m。22011．1211a1817．431629．35。3．2EPC。21。、。94%23～25℃。。、、、、、、、。3．3。1Excel3。4。2。X3X5。·221·2013113Excel4Excel53Y。Y“”。1“”“”。4100095%。6100%7。673．4100%。“”。31．2%26．1%22．4%“”。、、、。4。、、、———。1．D．2008．2．D．2003．3．J．2005276121－126．4．J．2007212170－174．5．J．200381211－14．【】·321·201311