人因可靠性分析方法-张力

X张　力XX　黄曙东XXX　何爱武　杨　洪(南华大学)回顾了人因可靠性分析(HRA)的发展历史;汇总了近几十年来的各种人因可靠性分析方法;详细介绍了人的失误率预测技术(THERP)、人的认知可靠性模型(HCR)、成功似然指数法(SLIM)的背景、使用步骤、特性等;分析了THERP+HCR的优势,并给出了一个应用实例。最后,指出了目前HRA方法的不足并预测了HRA的发展趋势。人因　可靠性　分析　方法1,,-,(2090)%,(7090)%,,Bhopal[1],,,,(HRA:HumanReliabilityAnal-ysis)2HRAHRA,,HRA,HRA11(HRA)[26]1THREPTechniqueofhumanerrorratepredictionA.D.Swain,H.E.Guttmann,HandbookofHumanReliabilityAnalysiswithEmphasisonNu-clearPowerPlantApplications.NUREG/CR-1278,1983¹;º;»,;¼,11320016ChinaSafetyScienceJournalVol.11No.3Jun.2001XXXXXX(79870004)(Z012000A003);(99JJY20066)2OATOperatoractiontreeR.E.Hall,J.Fragola,J.Wreathall,PostEventHumanDecisionErrors:OperatorActionTree/TimeReliabilityCorrela-tion.NUREG/CR-3010,1982¹,;º;»3AIPAAccidentinitiationandprogressinganalysisK.N.Fleming,P.H.Raabe,G.W.Hannaman,W.J.Houghton,AccidentInitiationandProgres-sionAnalysisStatusReport,GA/A13617Vol.llUC-77,GeneralAtomicCo.,SanDiego(USA),1975¹;º;»TRC;¼PSF4HCRHumancognitivereliabili-tymodelG.W.Hannaman,A.J.Spurgin,Y.Lukic,HumanCognitiveReli-abilityModelforPRAAnalysis.NUS-4531,1985¹;º,HEP;»5PCPairedcomparisonD.A.Seaver,W.G.Stillwell,ProceduresforUsingExpertJudgementtoEstimateHumanErrorProbabilitiesinNuclearPowerPlantOperations.NUREG/CR-2743,,1983¹HEP,;ºHEP6DNEDirectnumericalestima-tionD.A.Seaver,W.G.Stillwell,ProceduresforUsingExpertJudgementtoEstimateHumanErrorProbabilitiesinNuclearPowerPlantOperations.NUREG/CR-2743,1983¹;ºHRA;»7SLIMSuccesslikelihoodindexmethodologyD.E.Embrey,P.Humphreys,E.A.Rosa,B.Kirwan,K.Rea,NUREG/CR-3518,1984¹,;º;»;¼;½PSF8STAHR-Socio-technicalapproachtoassessinghumanrelia-bilityL.D.Phillips,P.Humphreys,D.E.Embrey,D.L.Selby,ASo-cio-TechnicalApproachtoAs-sessingHumanReliability(STAHR).In:PressuriedTher-malShockEvaluationoftheCalvertCliffsUnit1NuclearPowerPlant,AppendixD.NUREG/CR-4022,1985¹;º,PSF;»PSA;¼;½,9CMConfusionmatrixL.M.Potash,M.Stewart,P.E.Dietz,C.M.Lewis,E.M.DoughertyJr.,ExperienceinIn-tegratingtheOperatorContribu-tionsinthePRAinActualOper-atingPlants.In:ProceedingsoftheANS/ENSTopicalMeetingonProbabilisticRiskAssessmen-t,PortChester,NY,September1981,Vol.ll,pp.1054-1063.AmericanNuclearSociety,1981¹;º;»7:10MAPPSMaintenancepersonelper-formancesimulationmod-elA.I.Siegel,W.D.Bartter,J.J.Wolf,H.E.Knee,MaintenancePersonnelPerformanceSimula-tion(MAPPS)Model:Descrip-tionofModelContent,Struc-ture,andSensitivityTesting.NUREG/CR-3626,1984¹PSA;º,11MSFMMuliple-sequentrilfailuremodelP.K.Samanta,J.N.O'Brien,H.W.Morrison,MultipleSe-quentialFailureModel:Evalua-tionofandProcedureforHumanErrorDependency.NUREG/CR-3837,1985¹;ºPSA;»,12SHARP1,SHARP1SystematichumanactionreliabilityprocedureG.W.Hannaman,A.J.Spurgin,V.Joksimovich,J.Wreathall,D.D.Orvis,SystematicHumanActionReliabilityProcedure(SHARP),EPRINP-3583(1984),(1992)(EPRI),13INTENTMethodforestimatingHEPsfordecision-basederrorsD.I.Gertman,H.S.Blackmann,L.N.Haney,K.S.Seidler,H.A.Hahn,INTENT:AMethodforEstimatingHumanErrorProbabilitiesforDecisionBasedErrors.ReliabilityEngineering&SystemSafetyVol.35(1992)¹;ºTHERP,Commission;»14COGENTCognitiveeventtreesys-temD.I.Gertman,RepresentingCognitiveActivitiesanderrorsinHRAtrees.ECG-HFRU-10026.IdahoNationalEngineeringLab-oratory,1992¹THERPHRA,;ºSRKslips,lapesmistakes15ATHEANAAtechniqueforhumanerroranalysisS.E.Cooper,A.M.Ramey-Smith,J.Wreathall,etal,ATechniqueforHumanErrorAnalysis(ATHEANA).NUREG/CR-6350,1996¹;ºHRA;»,16CREAMCognitivereliabilityanderroranalysismethodE.Hollnagel,CognitiveReliabili-tyandErrorAnalysisMethod.ElsevierScienceLtd,1998¹HRA;º,3HRA,,[7],,,3.1(THERP:TechniqueforHumanErrorRatePrediction)3.1.1　THERP背景描述2080,SwainA.D.,GuttmannH.E.,,HandbookofHumanReliabilityAnalysiswithEmphasisonNuclear8ChinaSafetyScienceJournal112001PowerPlantApplications()(THERP),[8]1THERP3.1.2　THERP方法描述THERP4:¹;º;»;¼10,11),:¹PSA;º;»,:;;;;;;2)(1);;,,:¹;º;»;¼,2HRA(2)HRAHRAHRA,,,,,2HRA:[9]¹(A),(a);ºHRASF,2,13;»HRA,,,,;¼,;½HRA,9:;¾HRA,,HRA2HRA,:¹,,:P(S)=a(bûa)P(F)=1-a(bûa)=a(Bûa)+A(bûA)+A(BûA)º,,:P(S)=1-A(BûA)=a(bûa)+a(Bûa)+A(bûA)P(F)=A(BûA),P(S);P(F)(3)(PSF)HRA,(A)HEP(BHEP),THERPHRA,,HRAHEP,(PSF),:HEP=BHEPõ(PSF)1(PSF)2,HRA,Swain,5:(CD),(HD),(MD),(LD),(ZD),:CD,P(B/A)=1HD,P(BûA)=1+P(B)2MD,P(BûA)=1+6P(B)7LD,P(BûA)=1+19P(B)20ZD,P(BûA)=P(B)3.1.3　THERP表格介绍THERP,THERP,THERP27(),7:20-120-2,,0.1,20-320-420-520-8,,20-920-14,20-1520-19PSF20-2020-21,20-2220-273.1.4　THERP模式的特性THERP,,THERP,,THERP,,THERP(PSF),PSF,,THERP,,THERPHRAHEP,10ChinaSafetyScienceJournal112001,THERP3.2(HCR:HumanCognitiveReliability)3.2.1　HCR的背景THERP,,HCR3.2.2　HCR方法描述1)HCRHCR:3HCR3,,3¹,,,º,,»,,:,(t)(T1/2),HCR,:P=e-{t/T1/2-CA}B(1),ABC,,HCR3,(K1)(K2)(K3):T1/2=T1/2,nominal(1+K1)(1+K2)(1+K3)(2),T1/2,nominal()ABCK1K2K3232ABCABC(SKILL)0.4071.20.7(RULE)0.6010.90.6(KNOWLEDGE)0.7910.80.52)HCRHCR,,:¹11::HCR,,,,3HCR(K1):1.,-0.222.0.003.0.44(K2):1.0.442.0.283.,0.004.0.28(K3):1.-0.222.0.003.0.444.0.785.0.92º:3,,2ABC»:,;,¼:,3K1K2K33,(2),,½:,(1)3.2.3　HCR的特性与限制,(1),,,,,HCR10-4,,,,,10-43.2.4　对HCR的评价HCR,,,,,3,,HCR[10],HCRT(1/2),,,HRA3.3(SLIM:Successlikelihoodindexmethodology)1),[10]1984Embrey,,[11]SLIM10[12]:¹;ºPSF;»PSF;¼;½;¾;¿12ChinaSa