26金融脆弱性、信息不对称与新兴国家的金融危机

[]2004-09-30[](1978-),,,,(,710072)[],,,Minsky,,Minsky,[];;[]F830199[]A[]1007-9556(2004)06-0116-06FinancialVulnerabilityInformationAsymmetryandFinancialCrisisinEmergingEconomiesGUXiao-qing(EconomicsResearchCenter,XibeiUniversityofTechnology,Xian710072,China)Abstract:UnabletogivecredibleexplanationsforAsianfinancialcrisis,themodelsoffirstandsecondgenerationgiverisetoathirdgenerationmodelwhichisexpressedinthreedifferentformswithmoralriskmodelbeingmostlyfocused.Butitsexplanationsarebyfarfrombeingcompletelyconvincing.ThispapertakesMinskysfinancialvulnerabilityassumptionandextendsitintoopeneconomies.TheanalysisofthefinancialvulnerabilityinemergingeconomiesinperspectiveofinformationasymmetryiscomplementarytoMinskysassumption.Thismicro-baseddynamicstructuralistapproachforcefullyexplainsthecrisisexperiencedbyemergingeconomicsandmayjustaswelloffersomeinsightforChinesepolicypractice.KeyWords:informationasymmetry;financialvulnerability;financialcrisis2070,,,Krugman(1979)FloodGarber(1984),,,Obstfeld(19861994),,,,(self-fulfilling):Krugman(1998)CorsettiPesentiRoubini(1999);,DiamondDybvig(1983)(ChangVelasco,1998);(Krugman,1999),,611200412266///////JournalofShanXiFinanceandEconomicsUniversityDec.,2004Vol.26No.61992,,19971998,Demirguc-KuntandDetragiache(1997),,,,Krugman(1998)CorsettiPesentiRoubini(1999),(2003),Kmgman(1999),,,,Minsky,(),,(MitchellReedman,2002),,,,Minsky(1982),(hedge)(speculative)(Ponzi),,,,,,12,,,1,,;,,12,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,711200412266///////JournalofShanXiFinanceandEconomicsUniversityDec.,2004Vol.26No.6,,,,12Minsky,,,(generationig2norance)(rivalrypressure),(,2001),,(Arrow-Debreu),(StiglitzWeiss,1988),,,()Diamond,,,,,,,(Camp2bellCracaw,1980),(James,1987),,,(Mishkin,1996),,()(Pagano,1993),,,Minsky,,()(),(),,,(DiamondDybvig,1983),,,,(,1998),,,,,,,,,,,,,,Minsky:,,,,,,(GeorgeSoros):,811200412266///////JournalofShanXiFinanceandEconomicsUniversityDec.,2004Vol.26No.6,,,,,(Ponzi)GavinHausann(1996),,,,,,,,,3,,GDP,3GDP:(1MF)IFS(InternationalFinancialStatistics),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(Fisher),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(StiglitzWeiss,1981),,,,,,,,,2070,,,,,911200412266///////JournalofShanXiFinanceandEconomicsUniversityDec.,2004Vol.26No.6,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),Corsetti(),,,,,,Minsky,,,,,,,,,2001,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;;;021200412266///////JournalofShanXiFinanceandEconomicsUniversityDec.,2004Vol.26No.6:,,(HellmannMurdochStiglitz,2000)[][1].[J].,2001,(3).[2],.[J].,2003,(1).[3][].()[M].:,1998.[4]CorsettiG.,PesentiP.,andRoubiniN.,WhatCausedtheAsianCurrencyandFinancialCrisis?Part1:AMacroeconomicOverview;Part2:ThePolicyDebate.,NBERWorkingPaper,Cambridge,MA,1998.[5]Campbell,T.,andCracaw,W.,InformationProduction,MarketSignalingandtheTheoryofFinancialIntermediation.JournalofFinance,1980,37(3),327-352.[6]Demirguc-Kunt,A.,andDetragiache,E.,TheDeterminantsofBankingCrisis:EvidencefromIndustrialandDevelopingCoun2tries.,WorldBankWorkingPaperNo.1828,WashingtonDC,1997.[7]HymanP.Minsky,TheFinancialInstabilityHypothesis,WorkingPaperNo.74,PreparedforHandbooko!RadicalPoliticalE2conomy,May1992.[8]AlessandroVercelli,Minsky,KeynesandtheStructuralInstability,N.248-Marzo,1999,[9]Hellmann,T.,K.MurdockandJ.Stiglitz,Liberalization,MoralHazardinBanking,andPrudentialRegulation:AreCapitalRe2quirementsEnough?,AmericanEconomicReview90,147-165,2000.[10]Joon-HoHahmandFredericS.Mishkin,CausesoftheKoreanFinancialCrisis:LessonsforPolicy,NEERWorkingPaperNo.7483,January2000.[11]DiamondDandDiybvigP.,BankRuns,DepositInsurance,andLiquidity,JournalofPoliticalEconomy,91:401-419.[12]HymanP.Minsky,FinanceandStability:TheLimitsofCapitalism,WorkingPaperNo.93,May1993,PresentedataConfer2enceonTheStructureofCapitalismandtheFirminContemporarySociety.[13]Mishkin,F.S.,UnderstandingFinancialCrises:ADevelopingCountryPerspective,AnnualWorldBankConferenceonDevel2opmentEconomics,1996.[14]Radelet,StevenandJeffreySachs,TheEastAsianFinancialCrisis:Diagnosis,Remedies,Prospects.,BrookingsPapersonEco2nomicActivity,forthcoming,1998.[15]Gavin,MichaelandRicardoHausmann,TheRootsofBankingCrises:TheMacroeconomicContext.,WorkingPaperSeries318:Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Washington,D.C.,1996.[16]TuomasKomulainenandJohannaLukkarila,WhatDrivesFinancialCrisesinEmergingMarkets?,BankofFinland,InstituteforEconomiesinTransition,BOFITDiscussionPapers2003.[17].[J].,2003,(4).[18],.[J].,2003,(5).[:]121200412266///////JournalofShanXiFinanceandEconomicsUniversityDec.,2004Vol.26No.6