【硕士论文】上海轨道交通网络建设期风险体系研究

1://://’smore,ithasbeenidentifiedandanalyzedontheriskofrailtransitnetworknodeconstructioninthispaper.Thecircumstancesonnodesengineeringincludescrossthroughtunnelandhubsstation.Accordingtothedifferentengineeringcharacteristics,anexamplehasbeenanalyzedanditshouldbefocusedontheengineeringriskandriskcontrollingmethodinthetwocircumstances.WiththeexampleoftheconstructioninNo.1XuJiahuihubporttransformationchannel,theimportanceofsafetyconstructionontheriskidentificationandriskmanagementhasbeendemonstrated.Finally,thispaperhassummarizedtheriskoftherailtransitnetworkduringtheconstructionandpreparationperiod.Andariskmanagementsystemofestablishingsafeframeworkhasbeenpresented.KEYWORDS:railtransitnetwork,constructionperiod,risksystem,riskidentification://://(3)141.2.310929331242562012522403104230[1]1983101198610MITEinstein1970[26]1983Salazar[7]BjørnNilsen[8]J.B.Burland[9]Jubilee[10]T.Isaksson[11]DavidN.Chapman[12]ChungsikYooJae-hoonKim[13]TURISKMellors[14]ITA200210SørenDegnEskesenPerTengborg[15]2004J.Reilly[16]SKWoong-SukYoo[17][1819]1970[20]Mcfeat-Smith[21][22]MultipleAttributesUtilityTheory[23][24][25][2628][2930][31][32]10[3336]1.4://://://://://://····2CIM32.5.1checklist“”“”()()mnvvvVuuuU,,,,,,,2121ΛΛ==2-1UV(),01ijijmnKkk×=≤≤UX=ο2-2()nikijxyjmji,,2,1,1Λ=∧∨==2-3“ο”“”XUK——2.5.31970n12,,,nAAALiAjA1-9ija1iAjAijajAiA1jiijaa=nn×()ijnnAa×=1Table1Definitionofscale1iAjAiAjA3iAjAiAjA5iAjAiAjA7iAjAiAjA9iAjAiAjA2468=Wn——iW11,2,,nniijjWain===∑L2-4W11,2,,iiniiWWinW===∑L2-5()max1niiiAWynW==∑2-6WAijjkikaaa=CI••AmaxyW1max−−=••nnyIC2-70CI••=0.1CI••2.5.4FTA2060://≤P0.1%0.1%≤P1%1%≤P10%P≥10%P32.6.22.6.53Table3theengineeringrisklossprobabilitylevelstandard1234544Table4Riskevaluationmatrix1.2.3.4.5.AP0.01%1A2A3A4A5AB0.01%≤P0.1%1B2B3B4B5BC0.1%≤P1%1C2C3C4C5CD1%≤P10%1D2D3D4D5DEP≥10%1E2E3E4E5E56≤500500EL≤10001000EL≤50005000EL≤10000≥10000≤SI10F310≤SI503≤F1050≤SI10010≤F30SI≥100F≥30FSI99Table9Lossofconstructionperiodratingcriteria12345T1010≤T3030≤T6060≤T90T≥90T11≤T33≤T66≤T12T≥12T//302.6.31011≤5050EL≤100100EL≤500500EL≤1000≥100011Table11Casualtiesratingcriteria12345MI20MI≥20SI55≤SI10F3SI≥10F≥3FSIMI2.6.41212Table12Peripheralenvironmentimpactriskratingcriteria1,50250