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ChinaCrossroads:CompetitivePrioritiesforChineseBanksSeptember2002THEBOSTONCONSULTINGGROUPChinaCrossroads:CompetitivePrioritiesforChineseBanks1ChinaCrossroads:CompetitivePrioritiesforChineseBanksTheBostonConsultingGroupisageneralmanagementconsultingfirmthatisagloballeaderinbusinessstrategy.BCGhashelpedcompaniesineverymajorindustryandmarketachieveacompetitiveadvantagebydevelopingandimplementinguniquestrategies.Foundedin1963,thefirmnowoperates54officesin34countries.Forfurtherinformation,pleasevisitourWebsiteat:852-2506-2111Facsimile:852-2506-9084E-mail:[e-mail]ing(Shanghai)CompanyLtd.21stFloor,CentralPlaza227,HuangpiBeiLuShanghai,200003CHINATelephone:86-21-6375-8618Facsimile:86-21-6375-8628E-mail:[e-mail]ltingGroup(Beijing)3rdFloor,NorthTower,BeijingKerryCentreNo.1,GuangHuaRoadChaoyangDistrictBeijing,100020CHINATelephone:86-10-8529-8877Facsimile:86-10-8529-8878E-mail:[e-mail]:CompetitivePrioritiesforChineseBanksPrefaceExecutiveSummary1.WhereIsChina’sBankingIndustryToday?1.1Reformsunderway:shiftoccurringtomarket-drivenenvironment1.2Marketislargebutstillinanascentandemergingphase1.3Threekeychallengesfacingtheindustry1.4Bankingindustryisatamajorcrossroadstoday2.WhatCompetitiveScenariosAreLikelyToPlayOut?2.1Landscapes-definedbygeographyandproduct2.2Fivepossiblecompetitivescenarios2.3InferencesforChinaandthebanks2.4Whatshouldthebanksdonow?3.WhatAreThePrioritiesForChineseBanksToCompete?3.1Priority#1:Strengthenorganizationandcorporategovernance3.2Priority#2:Developasegmentedservicecapability3.3Priority#3:Buildastrongriskmanagementframeworkandculture3.4Priority#4:Maximizeoperationalefficiency3.5Priority#5:Usepartnershipsforcompetitiveadvantage4.HowShouldBanksBeginToCreateWinningGamePlans?4.1Theimportanceofstrategicplanning4.2KeystrategicplanningchallengesinChina5.WhatAreTheKeyImplicationsForManagement?6.ConclusionsCONTENTS457891317181818212224242732344042424345483ChinaCrossroads:CompetitivePrioritiesforChineseBanksPreface4GilesBrennandVicePresidentandDirectorTheBostonConsultingGroup34thFloor,ShellTowerTimesSquare,CausewayBayHongKong,CHINATel:852-2917-8236Fax:[phone]E-mail:[e-mail]tonConsultingGroup21stFloor,CentralPlaza227,HuangpiBeiLuShanghai,200003CHINATel:8621-6375-8618Fax:[phone]E-mail:[e-mail]’saccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)markedaneweraintheglobaleconomy.Forthefirsttimeaftermorethanfortyyearsinacontrolledmarket,Chinatookthesteptowardsfullyopeningitsdoorstoforeigntradepartners.Stepbystep,thesepartnerswillestablishtheirbasesinChina,enjoyingequalaccesstooneofthebiggestandfastestgrowingeconomiesintheworld.ThisisbothgoodandbadnewsfortheChinesebanks.Ontheonehand,thismarketstimuluswillintensifyeconomicgrowth,openingmoreopportunitiesforthem.Ontheotherhand,theChinesebankingindustryhaslimitedinternalcapabilitiesandisstillheavilyburdenedbymassivenon-performingloans.Foreigncompetitionishardlywelcomed.Withthemarkettransforming,fiercecompetitionlooming,andsignificantopportunitiesahead,China’sbankingindustryisatacrossroadsofchange.Standingstillisnotanoptionasinstitutionsconfrontboththeonslaughtofnewcompetitorsandtheequallydauntingchallengeoffindingtherightdirectionforthemselves.ThispaperdiscussestheuncertaintiesfacingtheChinesebankingindustryandidentifiessomestrategicprioritiesthatbanksmustaddress.Althoughthepaper’sprimaryaudienceistheseniormanagementofChinesebanks,theinsightsmaybeequallyenlighteningtoforeignbankingexecutiveswhocontemplateenteringtheChinesemarket.Drawingonexperiencefromothermarketsthathaveundergonesweepingbankingreforms,thepaperwillalsoexplorefiveplausiblecompetitivescenariosinChina.Bankingplayersareurgedtomonitorregulatorydirectionsandmarketforcescloselytogainearlyinsightintothechanginglandscapeandtosettheirpriorities.ThepaperisbasedonTheBostonConsultingGroup’s(BCG)broadexperienceinadvisingbankingclientsinChinaandglobally,supplementedbypubliclyavailableinformation.Specialthanksgototheprojectteam,ledbySeanJiam,andtomanyBCGcolleagueswhodevelopedmuchofthethinkinginthisreport.TheyincludeMinCao,JieFeng,JosephKwok,SinBengOng,ConnieYu,SimonYuen,andVivianZheng.WewouldalsoliketothanktheBCGofficerswhocontributedtheirinsights:ThomasAchhorner,DavidGilmour,JimHemerling,DavidMichael,RomanScott,PeterWetenhall,andJohnWong.“ChinaCrossroads:CompetitivePrioritiesforChineseBanks”providesanin-depthlookattheChinesebankingindustryatamomentoustimeinitsevolution.Wewelcomeyourfeedbackandencourageyoutocontactus.ChinaCrossroads:CompetitivePrioritiesforChineseBanks5ExecutiveSummaryFar-reachingreformshaverippledthroughthecompetitivelandscapeofChina’sbankingindustry.Thecountry’sentryintotheWTOwilllikelycatalyzefurthe