ExchangeSystem(国际金融国家级课程上海金融学院)

Chapter5InternationalExchangeSystem•第五章国际汇率制度•第一节固定汇率制FixedRateSystem•TheworldeconomyoperatedunderasystemoffixeddollarexchangeratesbetweentheendofWorldWarIIand1973,withcentralbanksroutinelytradingforeignexchangetoholdtheirexchangeratesatinternationallyagreedlevels.Twokindsofthefixedexchangerates1.金本位制度下的固定汇率制2.纸币流通制度下的固定汇率制GoldStandard:规定货币单位的含金量。含金量的的对比决定汇率。金币可以自由铸造；自由兑换；自由输出入。TheGoldStandard•Aninternationalgoldstandardavoidstheasymmetryinherentinareservecurrencystandardbyavoidingthe“Nthcurrency”problem.Underagoldstandard,eachcountryfixesthepriceofitscurrencyintermsofgoldbystandingreadytotradedomesticcurrencyforgoldwhenevernecessarytodefendtheofficialprice.AdvantageoftheGoldStandard•BecausethereareNcurrencyandNpricesofgoldintermsofthosecurrencies,nosinglecountryoccupiesaprivilegedpositionwithinthesystem:eachisresponsibleforpeggingitscurrency’spriceintermsoftheofficialinternationalreserveasset,gold.Goldstandardrulesalsorequireeachcountrytoallowunhinderedimportsandexportsofgoldacrossitsborders.BenefitsanddrawbacksoftheGoldStandard•Benefits:1.Symmetry2.Pricelevelandvalueofnationalmoneyaremorestableandpredictable3.EnhanceinternationaltransactionsDrawbacks:1.Constraintsontheuseofmonetarypolicytofightunemployment.2.Tyingcurrencyvaluestogoldensuresastableoverallpricelevelonlyiftherelativepriceofgoldisstable.→golddiscoveryinSouthAmerica3.Aninternationalpaymentssystembasedongoldisproblematicbecausecentralbankscannotincreasetheirholdingsofinternationalreservesastheireconomiesgrowunlesstherearecontinualnewgolddiscoveries.4.Thegoldstandardgivesgold-producingcountriespowertoinfluencetheworldeconomyTheGoldExchangeStandard•Halfwaybetweenthegoldstandardandapurereservecurrencystandardisthegoldexchangestandard.Centralbanks’reservesconsistofgoldandcurrencieswhosepricesintermsofgoldarefixed,andeachcentralbankfixesitsexchangeratetoacurrencywithafixedgoldprice.•Moreflexibilityinthegrowthofinternationalreserves.FixedExchangeRatesundercurrency-circulationsystem•纸币流通下的布雷顿森林体系。1944•BrettonWoodsagreement•英国向美国妥协的结果“双挂钩”体系。金块美元dollar各国货币日元…里拉…1盎司=35美元1%幅度波动HowtosustaintheFixedRate•维持固定汇率制的手段：1.动用黄金储备（储备项目）2.利用贴现政策（资本项目）3.施行外汇管制（或签订互换货币协定）4.实行法定贬值（lastresort）DilemmaofUSdollar美国逆差收支平衡向他国提供美元保持对美元信心Processofdollardevaluation美元贬值1944197119731盎司值美元353842.22脱钩浮动AbandonedGoldExchangeStandardThepost-WorldWarIIreservecurrencysystemcenteredonthedollarwas,infact,originallysetupasagoldexchangestandard.Whileforeigncentralbanksdidthejobofpeggingexchangerates,theU.S.FederalReservewasresponsibleforholdingthedollarpriceofgoldat$35anounce.Bythemid-1960s,thesystemoperatedinpracticemorelikeapurereservecurrencysystemthanagoldstandard.PresidentNixonunilaterallyseveredthedollar’slinktogoldinAugust1971,shortlybeforethesystemoffixeddollarexchangerateswasabandoned.FloatingExchangeRateSystem•第二节浮动汇率制度•特征：1.不规定本国货币与外币黄金平价2.不规定汇率波动的上下限3.中央银行无义务维持汇率波动界限义务4.外汇市场供求决定汇率5.国际收支变化是影响汇率的主要因素Typesoffloatingexchangerates•政府有否干预(dirtyhand)1.自由浮动FreeFloat/CleanFloat2.管理浮动ManagedFloat/DirtyFloat•是否与其他货币发生联系(Connection)1.单独浮动SingleFloat英镑，美元，日元等27个国家。2.钉住浮动PeggedFloat(1)钉住某一种货币：过去的殖民地与宗主国之间关系(2)钉住一揽子货币：SDR;ECU;取决于主要贸易伙伴国。3.联合浮动JointFloat欧共体。Advantageanddrawbackoffloatingrate•浮动汇率制度的有利因素：1.可以防止大量游资对硬货币的冲击。2.可以防止外汇和黄金储备的流失。3.各国有较大的自由来推行本国政策。总而言之，没有义务来维护固定汇率。Drawbacksoffloatingexchangerate•浮动汇率的三方面弊端：1.增加进出口贸易结算成本和风险，不利于国际贸易的发展。2.助长国际金融市场上的投机活动。3.各国采取以邻为壑政策，竞争性货币贬值。Beggar-thy-neighborpolicy.Krugman&Obstfeld(1)1.Discipline.Centralbanksfreedfromtheobligationtofixtheirexchangeratesmightembarkoninflationarypolicies.2.Destabilizingspeculationandmoneymarketdisturbances.Speculationonchangesinexchangeratescouldleadtoinstabilityinforeignexchangemarkets.3.Injurytointernationaltradeandinvestment.Floatingrateswouldmakerelativeinternationalpricesmoreunpredictable.Krugman&Obstfeld(2)4.Uncoordinatedeconomicpolicies.Thedoorwouldbeopenedtocompetitivecurrencypracticesharmfultothewouldeconomy.5.Theillusionofgreaterautonomy.Floatingexchangerateswouldnotreallygivecountriesmorepolicyautonomy.Changesinexchangerateswouldhavesuchpervasivemacroeconomiceffectsthatcentralbankswouldfeelcompelledtointerveneheavilyinforeignexchangemarketsevenwithoutaformalcommitmenttopeg.SelectionofFixed&FloatingExchangeRates•固定汇率制和浮动汇率制的选择取决于一国的国情：•大国还是小国；•发展中国家还是发达国家；•此事古难全ExchangeRateSysteminHongKong•第三节联系汇率制度（演变史）1935美元英镑区成员，港币与英镑之间是固定汇率1英镑=16港元1972英镑自由浮动，港币与美元建立固定联系1美元=5.65港元1973美元自由浮动，港币也自由浮动不断贬值过程……1983.10港币直接与美元挂钩，联系汇率制度开始1美元=7.8港元StabilizationPolicies•香港联系汇率制度的主要内容:•（教材155页）•从1983年10月17日起，发钞银行增发的港元现钞，一律以1美元=7.8港元的比价，事先向外汇基金交纳美元。保证了港币的发行有美元的准备。1994年进一步规定上述固定汇率只使用于发钞银行与外汇基金之间。其他交易则全部按照市场汇率来进行。AdaptabilityandVitality•HongKong:smallopeneconomy•资源贫乏，生产资料和生活必需品依赖进口。香港对外贸易是本地GDP的2.5倍。•外资在香港经济中占绝对比重。外资占股票市场交易额的三分之一。•WeatheringtheStorms•1987年全球股灾；1990年海湾战争；1991年欧洲汇率机制解体；1997-1998年亚洲金融危机。EvolutionofExchangeSystemofRMBinChina第一时期：国民经济恢复时期1949$1=¥5,241.34旧币自力更生，奖出限入，照顾侨汇。1950$1=¥33,806.11旧朝鲜战争，奖励出口，兼顾进口。1951$1=¥23,473.33旧人民币内部钉住美元1952$1=¥26,170.00旧奖励出口，兼顾进口1953对外停止公布人民币汇率第二时期：固定汇率制下的人民币汇率1954对外停止公布人民币汇率;人民币作为内部结算用。1955$1=¥2.46新币