中国金融业对外开放新形势的综合判断与分析

200888:100026788(2008)0820139210,(,200433):,,,.,.:;,,,,;,,,;,WTO,,.,,,,.:;;;;:F320,F410:ASyntheticestimationandanalysesofnewpositioninfinancialopening2upinChinaZHANGJin2qing,LIUQing2fu(InstituteforFinancialStudies,FudanUniversity,Shanghai200433,China)Abstract:Foranaccurateestimationofnewpositionoffinancialopening2upinChina,thefinancialopening2upwasestimatedbaseduponlawsandpoliciesandgradedwiththeestimation.Ajudgingmethodofcoordinationofthefinancialopening2upwasdeveloped.Withthismethod,newpositionofthefinancialopening2upinChinawasanalyzedandresultsshowedthatcurrentfinanceinChinaismediumopening.Comparedtotheaverageopeningdegreeinmediumopeningcountriesorzones,thefinancialopening2upinChinawashigherincommitmentsbutquitelowerinactualpractices.Thefinancialopening2upinChinahadvastpotential,whencomparedtosometypicalhighopeningcountriesorzones,inbothcommitmentsandactualpractices.Actually,thefinancialopening2upinChinawasimprovingbutlackedabalancebetweencommitmentsandactualpractices,obviouslythelatterlowerthantheformer.Ontheotherhand,duringtheperiodofpre2andpost2entryofWTO,thecoordinationbetweendomesticdevelopmentandopening2upoffinancialindustrywasimprovingbutdomesticdevelopmentstilllaggedbehindtheopening2up.Therefore,itisurgenttobetterthesoftwareandhardwareenvironmentsfordomesticdevelopmentoffinance,toimprovethefinancialopening2upinactualpractices,andtoincreasecoordinatelydomesticdevelopmentandopening2upoffinance.Keywords:evaluationindex;financialopening2upincommitments;financialopening2upinactualpractices;grading;coordination:2007203201:(10371025);(07JA790023):(1965-),(),,,,,,E2mail:[e-mail];(1973-),,,,,E2mail:[e-mail].0,WTO.,©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,;,;.,,.,[113],[14];,.,,.,:;;;.1,,,.1111,,[14].,(1).,.,,.,:Ot=1,tF1,t+2,tF2,t+3,tF3,t,t[0,+](1),Ott();F1,tF2,tF3,tt;1,t2,t3,tF1,tF2,tF3,tt,3i=1i,t=1.04120088,[14].:,;,,;,,.,[14].WTO,.©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,.[6,15],.,,Mattoo[6]Valckx[15],[0100,0105)[0105,0135)[0135,0165](0165,0195](0195,1100].,.(1).,.,.:,,,,;,,,;,.,,.,.,,.,S2Plus,,:,N(0170,0117)N(0126,0105)N(0157,0107)N(0180,0107)[16].,.,,,;,.,.:,(A)(B)(C),ABC,ABC,f(x)g(x)h(x).,f(x)=g(x)g(y)=h(y),x3y3,[x3,y3],[x3,y3].,.1418,f(x)=g(x)g(y)=h(y).,,,.(),,,,,;,,.,.,,,.,,..,.©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[0105,0139)[0139,0168](0168,0196].,[0100,0105)[0105,0139)[0139,0168](0168,0196](0196,1100].,.,:.,,,.2,,,,,.2111),:,,.,.,,,,,,,.,:,;,;,WTO,.2),:,;,[17,18],[19],.,.,,24120088,,,,(),,.,.,.,,.,.,,,.©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:Ct=ROtPOt(2),Ct([0,+))t,ROt([0,1])t,Ot((0,1])t.2121),,.,:Ct=CtaaCtbCtb(3),ab.,,,.,,,.,.2)(3)(),.,.,,,.,,,,01618[20].,,01618,01618.,[a,b].2131),,(2).(1);,:ROt=1+2+33418,,.,,([21]);,.(GATS)WTOIMFWorldBankBIS,.,,,,.,.,Ot,.©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(4),it,4i=1i=1.2),.,:N(0166,0127).,@RISK415(2).,(-,01424)[01424,01896](01896,+).2ab3),,:[17].,,.,.33111(197911112001112110)(20011121112006112110)(2006112111200719130)0.2020.5850.6160.0880.1570.1840.440.270.3020,:19791120011210,;2001121120061210,WTO,44120088,,.,,,,.;,(1,2,3,4)=(1P6,1P6,1P6,1P2).©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1).1,:1)1979,,,.,WTO,01202,01088;WTO,01585,01157,WTO2190,WTO1178;,,,1105,1111.,1978,,;2001,WTO,(),,;,WTO,,,.2)WTO,;WTO,,.:,,,;,,,,,.,,,.,,,,,;,,,,.,,,,.,,.,,,,,.3121),,01616,,01586;,,;,01819,.,01184,01381,01607.,,,,.2)5418,,.©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:19741981,;19821993,,;19941998,;1999,.,,(2).2(19741981)(19821993)(19941998)(19992007)0.4370.6420.7160.8440.1550.2520.3320.394,01616,,[22,23],80,.,,,.,:,;,,,,,;,,.4,,,,:,,,,.,,,,.,,;,,;,.,WTO,;WTO,,.,:,,.64120088,,.,,.193070,.,.,.:,;,;,.©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:[1]Bekaert,HarveyandLundblad,Doesfinancialliberalizationspurgrowth?[J].JournalofFinancialEconomics,2005,77:3-55.[2]ChinnMenzieandIto.Capitalaccountliberalization,institutionsandfinancialdevelopment:Crosscountryevidence[R].NBERWorkingPaper8967,2002.[3]ChinnMenzieandIto.Whatmattersforfinancialdevelopment?Capitalcontrols,institutions,andinteractions[R].NBERWorkingPaper11370,2005.[4]Dobson.FurtherfinancialservicesliberalizationintheDoharound?[J].InstituteforInternationalEconomicsPolicyBrief,2002,PB0228.[5]Feldstein,Horioka.Domesticsavingandinternationalcapitalflows[J].EconomicJournal,1980,6:314-329.[6]Mattoo.FinancialservicesandtheWTO:Liberalisationcommitmentsofthedevelopingandtransitioneconomics[J].TheWorld7418©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.