中国银行的改革(英文版)

China’sLastStepAcrosstheRiver:CompletingthebankingreformAsiaPacificEconomicandMarketAnalysisSalomonSmithBarneyandCitibankandAsiaPacificSchoolofEconomicsandManagementAustralianNationalUniversity2Thelast-stepsThepastrelativelypain-freereformapproachisnolongerpossibleNewreformsfacetoughertasks:giantSOEspillarSOCBsWhyadjustmentsmaybepainful?non-statesectorsmallinthesesectorsfinancialproblemscouldtriggereconomy-widedifficultiesunemploymentpressure3BankingreformhasmadeprogressesThecentralbank,PBOC,wasestablishedAcompletebankingsystemwasdeveloped4majorbanks(75%ofbankingassets)adozenothercommercialbanks3policybanksforeignbanksandbranchesproposed10privatebanksFinancialdeepening:M2/GDPratio(130%)Thebanksrelymainlyonhouseholddeposits(70%)andlendmainlytothestatesector(70%)4Financialdeepening,M2/GDP(%)020406080100120140USSingaporeJapanIndonesia19991990China1978Note:Numbersfortheothereconomiesarefor1998.Source:ChinaStatisticalYearbook,variousyears;andInternationalFinancialStatistics,June2000issue.5Declininggrowthratesofhouseholddeposits01020304050Mar-94Jul-94Nov-94Mar-95Jul-95Nov-95Mar-96Jul-96Nov-96Mar-97Jul-97Nov-97Mar-98Jul-98Nov-98Mar-99Jul-99Nov-99Mar-00Sources:CEIC.6ButbankfragilitygrewBankingproblemscausedbyLoss-makingSOEsPolicyloans(one-thirdoftotaloutstandingloans)WeakbankinginstitutionsNon-performingloansUnder-capitalizationofthebanks(comparingtotheotherAsianeconomies)7Slow&decliningproductivitygrowth(%,p.a.)00.20.40.60.811.21.41992-941986-92SOEs:1980-861980-94:Others1980-94:SOEsSource:SalomonSmithBarneyInc.estimatesapplyingenterprisesurveydatabytheChineseAcademyofSocialSciences.8SOEs’profitabilityfalling(%)-2024681012198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999Sources:StateStatisticsBureauofChina,ChinaStatisticalYearbook,variousyears,ChinaStatisticsPress,Beijing;anadCEIC.9Bankingfragility1996199719981999ProportionofNPLs(%)4majorbanks24.426.128.330.010joint-equitybanks..11.813.517.1Capital-adequacyratio(%)4majorbanks4.4..8.06.6Sources:YipingHuang(forthcoming).China’sLastStepsCrossingtheRiver:Enterpriseandbankingreforms,CambridgeUniversityPress.10…wereconfirmedbyfirmdata(%)01020304050JilinSichuanHunanJiangsuTotal19911992199319941995Source:ProcessedfromenterprisesurveydatabytheChineseAcademyofSocialSciences.11NewmeasuresadoptedtocuretheproblemsImprovementinfinancialsupervisionandregulationCommercializationofthebanksNewaccountingsystem(loanclassificationsystem)AssetManagementCompaniestransfer,repackageandsellbadloans/assets(Rmb1.4tror19%ofoutstandingloans)broadbusinessscope:debt-equityswap,restructuringoftheSOEsandevenunderwritinganassessmentPubliclisting12ButtheenvironmentischangingrapidlyEastAsianeconomiesiscomingoutofrecession(exceptIndonesia)TheglobaleconomyisslowingdownsignificantlyThisisexacerbatedbypoliticalunsettlementinAsiaChinaisgoingtojointheWTO,hopefully13AssumptionsaboutexternalsituationSlowdownofglobaleconomicgrowth,butnocollapseofUSeconomyStabilizationanddownwardadjustmentofoilpricesaroundendoftheyearDeepeningeconomicintegrationacrosstheTaiwanStrait,despitepoliticaluncertainties14GlobalgrowthslowingbutstillabovetrendSource:Citibank/SalomonSmithBarneyestimates0123456199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001GlobaleconomyUSJapanEuroArea1974-78average15Japan’ssteadyrecoveryaboostforAsiaSource:Bloomberg-30-20-10010203040Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00toAsiatotherestoftheworld%yoyFastergrowthofJapan’strade16WhatdoesthismeanforChina8.17.58.07.98.37.37.57.96789Citiban/SSBIMFWorldBankMarketmedium20002001(%)17DomesticfactorsmorecriticalDomesticdemandaccountfor95%ofGDPConsumerconfidenceandcorporateinvestmentarerisingTheirgrowthratesmaynotbeextraordinary,butarealreadyhigherthanthoseof1998andsimilartothoseof1997PositiveimpactsofWTOmembership–floodsofFDI,growthofexportsNear-termrisks:–sluggishrural/inlandconsumption–structural/geographicunemploymentproblemsLong-termriskliesinfiscalchallenge18Initialturnaroundledbyexportgrowth-20-10010203040506070Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00-2-101234567Tradebalance(RHS)Exports(LHS)*Imports(LHS)*%changeUS$bn*Note:Seriessmoothedusing3-monthmovingaverage19Now,consumerspendingisrising...CPIdeflationended,butRPIdeflationcontinuesSource:CEIC.(%)-505101520Jan-97Mar-97May-97Jul-97Sep-97Nov-97Jan-98Mar-98May-98Jul-98Sep-98Nov-98Jan-99Mar-99May-99Jul-99Sep-99Nov-99Jan-00Mar-00May-00Jul-00Sep-00ConsumerpriceindexRetailpriceindexRetailsales20(becauseofrisingconsumerconfidence)90919293949596Jan-99Mar-99May-99Jul-99Sep-99Nov-99Jan-00Mar-00May-00Jul-00Source:CEIC.21…soiscorporateinvestment(%)GrowthofindustrialproductionisacceleratingSource:CEIC.051015202530Jan-97Mar-97May-97Jul-97Sep-97Nov-97Jan-98Mar-98May-98Jul-98Sep-98Nov-98Jan-99Mar-99May-99Jul-99Sep-99Nov-99Jan-00Mar-00May-00Jul-00Sep-00Fixedassetinvestment:SOEandFIEValue-addedofindustrialproduction22ChinaistomaintainstronggrowthMacroeconomyismovingupwardChinaislessexposedtotheexternalmarket,comparedtootherAsianeconomiesContributionofWTO