某工厂的需求预测和库存管控问题

学号：201214770404、201214770411、201214770401201214770120、201214770122、201214770123课程设计说明书COURSEDESIGNTHESIS设计题目：某工厂的需求预测和库存管控问题学生姓名：张娟、陈旺顺、魏闪闪、钟传亮、王家栋、唐世科专业班级：12物流工程1学院：建筑工程学院指导教师：董博2015年6月12日摘要-I-摘要存货管理是企业内部控制的重要环节,是企业实现经营目标,贯彻经营方针和决策,维护流动资产安全与完整,保证财务收支合法、会计信息真实性的一种内部自我协调、制约和监督的控制系统。作为一项重要的流动资产，它的存在势必占用大量的流动资金。通过实施正确的存货管理方法，来降低企业的平均资金占用水平，提高存货的流转速度和总资产周转率，才能最终提高企业的经济效益。当前，制造企业面临市场竞争激烈、客户需求多变、客户订单提前期短、原材料采购周期长、库存控制困难等问题，企业的库存成本，特别是配件及半成品的库存需要占用大量的流动资金，成为企业发展的关键影响因素。因此库存与库存管理越来越为企业所重视，减少原材料库存、降低其库存成本是库存管理的关键，也是企业“第三个利润源泉”的重点所在。在银行贷款紧缩、利率大幅提升及汇率不断爬升的宏观经济环境影响下，如何降低库存成本，加速企业资金周转率的问题变得更为突出。预测是对未来可能发生的情况的预计与推测,预测不仅是长期战略性决策的重要输入,而且是短期日常经营活动的重要依据。在组织内部，预测为个部门的计划编制提供了基础。本报告对上海某工厂进行需求预测与库存管控分析，通过其每个月销售数据计算分析，并进行合理安排管控，已达到减少缺货、降低库存和实现循环排产的目的。关键词存货；存货管理；库存；需求预测Abstract-II-AbstractInventorymanagementisanimportantpartofinternalcontrolisthecompanyachievetheirbusinessobjectives,implementingthebusinesspolicyanddecision-making,maintainingsecurityandintegrityofcurrentassetstoensurefinancialbalancelegal,accountinginformationauthenticityofaninternalself-coordination,controlandsupervisioncontrolsystem.AsCurrentassets,itsexistenceisboundtouseupalotofliquidity.Throughtheimplementationofproperinventorymanagementmethods,toreducethelevelofenterprises,theaverageamountoffundsusedtoimproveinventoryturnoverrateandtotalassetturnover,canultimatelyimprovetheeconomicefficiencyofenterprises.Atpresent,manufacturingenterprisesarefacingintensemarketcompetition,changingcustomerdemands,customerorderleadtimeisshort,longcycleofrawmaterialsprocurement,stockcontrolproblemsandotherissues,inventorycosts,especiallytheinventoryofpartsandsemi-finishedproductstakealotofliquidity,thekeyfactorsofenterprise’sdevelopment.So,inventoryandinventorymanagementhavebecomemoreandmoreimportantforbusinesses,reducingrawmaterialinventoryandloweringinventorycostsisthekeytoinventorymanagement,andthethirdsourceofprofitshavebeenthefocusoftheenterprise.Withthecontractionofloan,interestratesincreasedsignificantlyandtheexchangerateundertheinfluenceofmacro-economicenvironmentcontinuetoclimb,howtoreduceinventorycosts,andacceleratethecapitalturnoverratehasbecomemoreprominent.Predictthefuturepossiblesituationisexpectedtospeculatethatpredictlong-termstrategicdecision-makingisnotonlyanimportantinput,andistheimportantbasisofshort-termdailybusinessactivities.Withintheorganization,forecastplanprovidesthebasisforadepartment.ThisreportforafactoryinShanghaidemandforecastingandinventorycontrolanalysis,calculationandanalysis,throughitsmonthlysalesdataandmakereasonablearrangementofcontrols,hasreachedtoreduceoutofstock,reduceinventory,andrealizethepurposeofthecycleofproductionscheduling.KeywordsInventory；Inventorymanagement；JIT；demandforecastingKeywordsexaminationsystem;automatictestpaper;database;geneticalgorithm目录-III-目录课程设计说明书............................................................................................................I摘要.............................................................................................................................IABSTRACT..................................................................................................................II第一章绪论..................................................................................................................11.1课题研究现状与内容介绍........................................11.1.1存货......................................................11.1.2库存管理..................................................11.1.3需求预测..................................................1第2章需求预测的方法..............................................................................................32.1简单移动平均法................................................32.1.1简单移动平均法.............................................32.1.2简单移动平均法的优缺点及其适用范围........................42.2一次指数平滑法................................................52.2.1一次指数平滑法............................................52.2.2一次指数平滑法的优缺点及其适用范围.........................62.4本章小结......................................................7第3章课程设计问题的提出与解决..........................................................................83.1某工厂的需求预测与库存管控问题................................83.1.1某工厂需求预测与库存管控问题的提出........................83.1.2某工厂需求预测与库存管控的目的.............................93.2采用简单移动平均法的数据及分析...............................103.2.1规格a产品简单移动平均法下的预测数据.....................103.2.2规格b产品简单移动平均法下的预测数据......................103.3一次指数平滑法数据分析.......................................113.3.1规格a产品简单移动平均法下的预测数据......................113.3.2规格b产品简单移动平均法下的预测数据......................113.4数据分析.....................................................143.5本章小结.....................................................14总结与展望..................................................................................................................15参考文献......................................................................................................................16附录.................................................................................................