我国道路交通事故原因分析与对策研究

毕业设计（论文）报告纸共51页第1页┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊装┊┊┊┊┊订┊┊┊┊┊线┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊摘要针对我国道路交通安全形势日益严峻的现状，在分析我国城市道路交通安全特点的基础上，从交通事故的发生因素出发，分析研究了道路交通事故的宏观规律、微观规律、交通事故的成因进行分析，提出了道路交通预防理论及其实现方法，并针对灰色GM（1，1）模型进行具体的实例分析。从安全系统工程的角度，提出通过制定科学合理的城市道路交通安全管理规划和建立健全城市交通事故紧急救援系统、加强交通参与者的交通安全意识、综合协调道路－交通流－管理者之间的关系，以消除道路交通系统中人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态。明确指出当前乃至今后交通安全的发展方向和趋势，规划长远、决策当前，彻底改变目前交通安全工作的事后处理状态，做到防患于未然。对提高交通安全宏观管理整体水平具有一定的借鉴作用和应用价值。关键词交通事故影响因素，交通事故规律，交通事故预测，事故预防毕业设计（论文）报告纸共51页第2页┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊装┊┊┊┊┊订┊┊┊┊┊线┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊ABSTRACTAimingatincreasinglyseriousroadtrafficsituationinChina,basedonthecharacteristicsofurbanroadtrafficsafety,andstartwiththeoccurrencemechanismoftrafficaccident,Analysisoftheroadtrafficlawsofthemacroandmicrorulestoanalyzethecausesoftrafficaccidents，proposedPreventionofroadtraffictheoryanditsimplementation,AndspecificexamplesofgrayGM(1,1)model,Fromtheviewofsafetysystemengineering,unsafehumanbehaviorandunsafestateofobjectinroadtrafficsystemcouldbeeliminatedbyformulatingscientificandrationalurbanroadtrafficsafetymanagementplan,perfectingurbantrafficaccidentemergencyrescuesystem,reinforcingtrafficparticipants'safetyawarenessandcomprehensivelycoordinatingtherelationshipamongroads,trafficflawandroadadministrators.Aclearviewofcurrentsituationanddevelopmenttrendinfuturearedescribed.Planningthelong-teem,whilemakingdecisionatpresentwouldrealizethepreventionfirstinsteadoftakingremedialmeasuresaftertheaccidentoccurred.Thisstudycouldprovidesaneguidanceandpracticalvalueinraisingtheoverallleveloftrafficsafetymanagement.Keywordsaccidentfactors，trafficLaw，trafficForecast，accidentprevention毕业设计（论文）报告纸共51页第3页┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊装┊┊┊┊┊订┊┊┊┊┊线┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊目录第一章绪论………………………………………………………………………………51.1研究的目的及意义.................................................................................................51.1.1国外道路交通安全状况简介.....................................................................51.1.2我国道路交通安全状况简介......................................................................51.1.3中外道路交通安全和状况对比分析..........................................................61.2国内外研究状况综述............................................................................................81.2.1国外研究状况..............................................................................................81.2.2国内研究状况............................................................................................111.3主要研究内容及方法..........................................................................................12第二章道路交通事故成因分析………………………………………………………122.1道路交通事故宏观因素分析..............................................................................122.1.1教育状况....................................................................................................122.1.2法律状况....................................................................................................142.1.3道路和车辆设计水平................................................................................152.1.4社会经济水平............................................................................................152.2道路交通事故成因的微观因素分析..................................................................152.2.1人的因素....................................................................................................162.2.2车辆因素....................................................................................................172.2.3道路因素....................................................................................................172.2.4道路交通环境因素....................................................................................20第三章我国道路交通事故特点分析………………………………………………..213.1道路交通事故时间分布.......................................................................................213.1.1交通事故的月分布规律............................................................................213.1.2道路交通事故星期分布规律....................................................................233.1.3道路交通事故小时分布规律....................................................................233.2道路交通事故原因分布规律...............................................................................243.3道路交通事故形态分布规律...............................................................................253.4道路交通事故道路条件分布...............................................................................26毕业设计（论文）报告纸共51页第4页┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊装┊┊┊┊┊订┊┊┊┊┊线┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊3.4.1道路类型....................................................................................................263.4.2道路线形....................................................................................................293.4.3不同路段路口............................................................................................303.5伤亡人员特点.......................................................................................................323.5.1伤亡人员年龄............................................................................................323.5.2伤亡人员性别............................................................................................343.5.3伤亡人员户口.................................................................................