供应链管理-第三版-Unit7-习题与答案

Chapter7DemandForecastinginaSupplyChainTrue/False1.Theforecastofdemandformsthebasisforallstrategicandplanningdecisionsinasupplychain.Answer:TrueDifficulty:Moderate2.Throughoutthesupplychain,allpullprocessesareperformedinanticipationofcustomerdemand,whereasallpushprocessesareperformedinresponsetocustomerdemand.Answer:FalseDifficulty:Easy3.Forpullprocesses,amanagermustforecastwhatcustomerdemandwillbeinordertoplanthelevelofavailablecapacityandinventory.Answer:TrueDifficulty:Moderate4.Forpushprocesses,amanagermustforecastwhatcustomerdemandwillbeinordertoplanthelevelofavailablecapacityandinventory.Answer:FalseDifficulty:HardTheresultingforecastaccuracyenablessupplychainstobebothmoreresponsiveandmoreefficientinservingtheircustomers.5.Theresultwheneachstageinthesupplychainmakesitsownseparateforecastisoftenamatchbetweensupplyanddemand,becausetheseforecastsareoftenverydifferent.Answer:FalseDifficulty:Moderate6.Whenallstagesofasupplychainproduceacollaborativeforecast,ittendstobemuchmoreaccurate.Answer:TrueDifficulty:Easy7.Leadersinmanysupplychainshavestartedmovingtowardcollaborativeforecastingtoimprovetheirabilitytomatchsupplyanddemand.Answer:TrueDifficulty:Moderate8.Matureproductswithstabledemandareusuallythemostdifficulttoforecast.Answer:FalseDifficulty:Moderate9.Forecastingandtheaccompanyingmanagerialdecisionsareextremelydifficultwheneitherthesupplyofrawmaterialsorthedemandforthefinishedproductishighlyvariable.Answer:TrueDifficulty:Easy10.Forecastsarealwaysright.Answer:FalseDifficulty:Easy11.Forecastsshouldincludeboththeexpectedvalueoftheforecastandameasureofforecasterror.Answer:TrueDifficulty:Moderate12.Long-termforecastsareusuallymoreaccuratethanshort-termforecasts.Answer:FalseDifficulty:Moderate13.Aggregateforecastsareusuallymoreaccuratethandisaggregateforecasts,astheytendtohaveasmallerstandarddeviationoferrorrelativetothemean.Answer:TrueDifficulty:Moderate14.Ingeneral,thefurtherupthesupplychainacompanyis(orthefurthertheyarefromtheconsumer),thesmallerthedistortionofinformationtheyreceive.Answer:FalseDifficulty:Easy15.Collaborativeforecastingbasedonsalestotheendcustomercanhelpenterprisesfurtherupthesupplychainreduceforecasterror.Answer:TrueDifficulty:Moderate16.Qualitativeforecastingmethodsaremostappropriatewhenthereisgoodhistoricaldataavailableorwhenexpertsdonothavemarketintelligencethatiscriticalinmakingtheforecast.Answer:FalseDifficulty:Moderate17.Timeseriesforecastingmethodsarebasedontheassumptionthatpastdemandhistoryisagoodindicatoroffuturedemand.Answer:TrueDifficulty:Easy18.Timeseriesforecastingmethodsarethemostdifficultmethodstoimplement.Answer:FalseDifficulty:Moderate19.Causalforecastingmethodsfindacorrelationbetweendemandandenvironmentalfactorsanduseestimatesofwhatenvironmentalfactorswillbetoforecastfuturedemand.Answer:TrueDifficulty:Moderate20.Simulationforecastingmethodsimitatetheconsumerchoicesthatgiverisetodemandtoarriveataforecast.Answer:TrueDifficulty:Moderate21.Theobjectiveofforecastingistofilterouttherandomcomponent(noise)andestimatethesystematiccomponent.Answer:TrueDifficulty:Moderate22.Theforecasterrormeasuresthedifferencebetweentheforecastandtheestimate.Answer:FalseDifficulty:Easy23.Thegoalofanyforecastingmethodistopredictthesystematiccomponentofdemandandestimatetherandomcomponent.Answer:TrueDifficulty:Moderate24.Astaticmethodofforecastingassumesthattheestimatesoflevel,trend,andseasonalitywithinthesystematiccomponentvaryasnewdemandisobserved.Answer:FalseDifficulty:Easy25.Inadaptiveforecasting,theestimatesoflevel,trend,andseasonalityareupdatedaftereachdemandobservation.Answer:TrueDifficulty:Moderate26.Themovingaverageforecastmethodisusedwhendemandhasanobservabletrendorseasonality.Answer:FalseDifficulty:ModerateMultipleChoice1.Thebasisforallstrategicandplanningdecisionsinasupplychaincomesfroma.theforecastofdemand.b.salestargets.c.profitabilityprojections.d.productionefficiencygoals.e.alloftheaboveAnswer:aDifficulty:Easy2.Forpushprocesses,amanagermustforecastwhatcustomerdemandwillbeinordertoa.plantheservicelevel.b.planthelevelofavailablecapacityandinventory.c.planthelevelofproductivity.d.planthelevelofproduction.e.noneoftheaboveAnswer:dDifficulty:Moderate3.Forpullprocesses,amanagermustforecastwhatcustomerdemandwillbeinordertoa.plantheservicelevel.b.planthelevelofavailablecapacityandinventory.c.planthelevelofproductivity.d.planthelevelofproduction.e.noneoftheaboveAnswer:bDifficulty:Moderate4.Theresultofeachstageinthesupplychainmakingitsownseparateforecastisa.anaccurateforecast.b.amoreaccurateforecast.c.amatchbetweensupplyanddemand.d.amismatchbetweensupplyanddemand.e.noneoftheaboveAnswer:dDifficulty:Moderate5.Whenallstagesofasupplychainproduceacollaborativeforecast,ittendstobea.muchmoredetailed.b.muchmorecomplex.c.muchmoreaccurate.d.muchmoreflexible.e.alloftheaboveAnswer:cDifficulty:Moderate6.Theresultingaccuracyofacollaborativeforecastenablessupplychainstobea.moreresponsivebutlessefficientinservingtheircustomers.b.bothmoreresponsiveandmoreefficientinservingtheircustomers.c.lessresponsivebutlessef