轨道交通客流预测非集聚模型应用初探

11(1.,430074):,.MNL,,.:;;:U491.1+4:A:1000-5730(2002)01-0065-03,,.,.,,.,.,,,,.,.,.,,,,.,,.,:,,,.1:N;n,n=1,2,,N;Jnn;Unn..,niUn,,,Uin=Uin(SEn,Ain),,SEnn;Ainni.,UinUin=Vin+in,,Vin;in.nJni,niUin,UinUjn;PjiJn.Uin,niPinij(PjiJn),Pin=PrUinUjn,PjiJn=PrVin+inVin+jn,PjiJn=PrjnVin+in-Vjn,PjiJn.:2002-02-06.:(1945-),,;,(430074).191()Vol.19No.120023J.ofHuazhongUniv.ofSci.&Tech.(UrbanScienceEdition)Mar.2002©1995-2003TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.n=(1n,2n,,jn),F(1,2,,jc)F(1,2,,J)=Pr1n1,2n2,3n3,,jnJ=1222J2f(x1,x2,,xJ)dx1dx2dxJ,,f(x1,x2,,xJ)n,[1,2]PrUin=max(Ujn)Iin+d=Vin+-Vin2Vin+-Vin2f(x1,,,,xj)dx1dxj-1dxj+1dxjd.(1)(1).(1),n,,MNL(MultionmialLogitModel).MNLin,F()=exp{-exp(-)}Gumbel[3],MNLPin=exp(Vin)jJnexp(Vin).(2)2MNLMNL,,J(,J={}),,.,MNL.2.1n=1,2,,N,J={j1,j2,j3,j4,j5}={},Vin,Vin=Xin=KK=1kxinkiJn,,=(1,2,,K)T;Xin=(xin1,,xink,,xinK)ni,(2)[2]Pin=expKk=1kxinkjJnexpkk=1kxjnk.(3),,1.1A{}{}{}{}2.2Xink,,(2).a.,.b.AJ1,(J-1),.c.,,,-IIA.2n,3.,Xin1,Xin2,Xin3Xin4;Xin5(min);Xin6();Xin7,Xin8,Xin9Xin10.66()2002©1995-2003TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.3Xin1Xin2Xin3Xin4Xin5Xin6Xin7Xin8Xin9Xin100000Xin5000Xin9:1:0Xin101000X2n500X2n8:1:0X2n9:1:0X2n100100X3n5X3n6X3n7:1:00X3n9:1:0X3n100010X4n5X4n600X4n9:1:0X4n100001X5n5X5n600X5n9:1:0X5n10123456789102.3,,,,.,N4.4Xin1Xin2Xin5Xin6Xin7Xin8Xin9Xin10112410010X115X116010X21600X415X416001X110011X2110000X14401256789102N1,.2.4N3L3=Nn=1jJnPinin.L=lnL3=Nn=1iJninln(Pin)=Nn=1iJnin(TXin-lnjjneTXjn),Lk,¨L=5L51,,5L5k,,5L5KT,(4)(4)0,k¨L=5L51,,5L5k,,5L5KT=0.NR(NewtonRaphson).2.5t,t.tk=kVk,,kk;Vkk.5%,tk1.96,95%xinkn;tk1.96,95%xinkn,,[1].2.6=(1,2,,k)(3)Pin,MNL.,,MNL,.3,,,,,,,.,MNLIIA.,in,.,n,,,.[1],.[M].:,1999.[2].[M].:,1998.[3].[M].:,1997.(72)761:©1995-2003TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,.[1],.[M].:,1993.[2].[M].:,1995.[3].[M].:,1996.UsingSeismicIsolationTechnologytoEnforcetheEarthquakeResistantCapabilityofBuildingsLILi1LIJian1TANGJia2xiang1(1.CollegeofCivilEng.&Mechanics,HUST,Wuhan430074,China)Abstract:UnderthereinforcementprojectbackgroundofaTurkeybuilding,thenewmethodabouthowtouseseis2micisolationtechnologytoenforcetheearthquakeresistantcapabilityofoldbuildingsisintroduced.Thisreinforce2mentprocesscanraisetheearthquakeresistantrankofabuildingwithoutaffectingthenormaluseofthebuildinganddamagingthefitupofthebuilding.Keywords:seismicisolationtechnology;reinforcementofbuildings;rubberbearing(67)DiscussionontheDisaggregateModeloftheFluxProcastingofUrbanRailTransportionMAHe-ling1GUOZhi-yong1(1.CollegeofTraffic,HUST,Wuhan430074,China)Abstract:Fluxprocastingisthebasisofinvestmentdecisionandprojectevaluationofurbanrailtransportion.Usingtherandomutilitytheory,thethesisdeducesthebasicformulaofdisaggregatemodelfirstly.ThentheMNLmodelbasedondisaggregatemodelissetup.Severalproblemsaboutthedisaggregatemodelneededtostudydeeplyispro2vided.Keywords:urbanrailtransportation;fluxprocasting;disaggregatemodel;MNLmodel27()2002©1995-2003TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.